Potential Tristate Area Snowstorm Saturday 12/28

From The National Weather Service in Upton, NY

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE TRI-STATE AREA BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE CURRENT PATH OF THE LOW WOULD BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSSTHE NYC METRO AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. 2 TO 4 INCHES TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

Post Christmas Northeast Snowfall Totals

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 1000 PM EST THU DEC 27...

...CONNECTICUT...
NORTH GRANBY 1 ENE                    8.6                    
COLLINSVILLE                          6.1                    
TERRYVILLE                            6.0                    
TORRINGTON                            5.5                    
WOLCOTT                               5.3                    
AVON                                  5.2                    
COVENTRY                              5.0                    
FARMINGTON                            5.0                    

...MASSACHUSETTS...
ASHFIELD                             15.0                    
HEATH                                15.0                    
PLAINFIELD                           14.4                    
SHELBURNE                            14.0                    
WINDSOR                              13.4                    
STOCKBRIDGE                          12.0                    
NORTH OTIS                           11.5                    
CHARLEMONT                           11.0                    
LEYDEN                               11.0                    
GREENFIELD                           10.5                    

...MAINE...
BERWICK                              12.0                    
LEBANON                              12.0                    
SCARBOROUGH                          12.0                    
SANFORD                              11.0                    
SOUTH BERWICK                        11.0                    
WATERBORO 3 E                        11.0                    
MANCHESTER                           10.5                    
SACO                                 10.3                    
GORHAM                               10.0                    
PORTLAND JETPORT                     10.0                    

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
RANDOLPH                             13.8                    
MILTON                               13.0                    
PETERBOROUGH                         11.2                    
STRAFFORD 2 SSE                      11.2                    
EAST HAMPSTEAD 1 S                   11.0                    
EPPING                               11.0                    
MADISON                              11.0                    
ROLLINSFORD                          11.0                    
BROOKFIELD                           10.5                    
BERLIN                               10.0                    
DEERFIELD 1 NNE                       9.0                    
GROTON                                9.0                    

...NEW YORK...
ADDISON                              17.4                    
EDWARDS                              16.0                    
HORNELL                              15.3                    
WALWORTH 1.7 SW                      15.1                    
INDIAN LAKE                          15.0                    
VOAK 1 E                             15.0                    
WALES 2 S                            15.0                    
MIDDLEBURGH                          14.5                    
SUMMIT                               14.5                    
LIVERPOOL                            14.3                    
GREECE                               14.0                    
ROCHESTER 5.8 ESE                    14.0                    
FULTON 0.2W                          13.5                    
HAMBURG                              13.0                    
ORCHARD PARK                         12.0                    
BUFFALO                              12.0                    
NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT                 11.8                    

 ...PENNSYLVANIA...
COUDERSPORT                          15.0                    
COOPERSTOWN                          14.0                    
OIL CITY                             14.0                    
BRADFORD                             12.0                    
MARIENVILLE                          12.0                    
SENECA                               12.0                    
LIBERTY CORNERS                      11.5                    
SHINGLEHOUSE                         11.0                    
GREENVILLE                           10.5 

HERMITAGE                            10.0                    
ULYSSES                              10.0 

...RHODE ISLAND...
BURRILLLVILLE                         4.5                    
NORTH FOSTER                          4.5                    
WEST GLOCESTER                        4.3                    

...VERMONT...
WOODFORD                             21.0                    
WARREN                               15.0                    
RICHMOND                             13.0                    
JONESVILLE                           12.5                    
LANDGROVE                            12.0                    
HINESBURG                            11.0                    
RIPTON                               11.0                    
SWANTON                              10.0                    
WHITING                              10.0

Winter Storm/Nor'easter to Impact the Northeast

*Heavy precipitation and strong winds are on tap  for the Northeast tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be blowing 30-40 miles per hour with gust up to 60 miles per hour.

*Significant snow accumulations expected over Northern New England and Western New York State including Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse where well over 8 inches to as much as 16 inches of snow are expected. Heaviest Precipitation will occur tonight and last through early afternoon on Thursday.

*Snow/Sleet mixture initially for New York City Metropolitan area with accumulations up to 1 inch, then changing to a heavy, soaking rain this evening into the over night as a secondary area of low pressure develops along the coast pulling in warmer air from the Ocean.

*Coastal flooding expected tonight from mid-Atlantic to the New England coasts.

National Hurricane Center Modifies Hurricane Warning Definition in Wake of Sandy

 

The following article is attributed to AccuWeather.com, a great source for weather news, and forecast. 

Following the criticism of the National Hurricane Center's handling of Hurricane Sandy and the non-issuance of hurricane warnings north of North Carolina, it has been decided that the NHC will now have more flexibility in their policy regarding the issuance of advisories.
Beginning in 2013, the NHC will have the flexibility to issue multiple advisories on post-tropical cyclones for landfalling systems or close bypassers.

According to the NHC, this required a revision of the Hurricane Warning definition, which will now be as follows:

An announcement that sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, sub-tropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

"The main issue is: we want people to get ready for hurricane conditions, and that's why we are changing the definition of hurricane warning to be a little more inclusive of other things than just a hurricane," Chris Landsea, Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center, told AccuWeather.com.

Additionally, the NHC eventually plans to begin differentiating between wind hazards and storm surge hazards.

"Sandy was not ideal, and the way we handled it was not right. But we're fixing it," Landsea told AccuWeather.com.

"We realize this was not satisfactory and we want to make it better for next year."

Barry Myers, AccuWeather CEO, is supportive of the decision.

"We are pleased to see NOAA's new policy. It will accomplish for the future, what AccuWeather advocated be done prior to the landfall of Hurricane Sandy," Barry Myers, AccuWeather CEO, said today.

Myers had granted an interview to AccuWeather.com about eight hours before Sandy's landfall and urged the government to issue hurricane warnings for the affected New Jersey and New York areas. He called Sandy a "hurricane embedded in a winter storm" that necessitated hurricane warnings.

Weather Synopsis December 4th 2012

(Current US Surface Weather Map Indicates a Cold Front Advancing East Across The Region)

Unseasonably warm conditions will briefly come to an end tonight and tomorrow as a cold front advances towards the east ushering cooler and more seasonal temperatures for the Northeast. Expect showers of rain out ahead of the front across the region before temperatures fall back to what we would expect for early December. Temperatures will warm back up by Friday , though not as mild this warm up should last through the weekend and staying here through the better part of next week. Along with the mild conditions, we can expect inclement weather to affect the parts of the region, mainly away front the Atlantic coast as a stationary front sets up along the lower Great lakes increasing the chance of rain on Friday and Saturday across western New York State. Looking ahead, the long range weather forecast still supports the idea of an increased cold and snowy weather pattern setting up over the Northeast. One of the parameters which supports this forecast is the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO). We are currently observing a positive phase of this oscillation, which allows storm systems to move out quickly and doesn't allow the cooler temperatures to stick around much. However, with time, it looks as if we will be entering a negative phase of the NAO later in December.

Graph from National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center

(Click to Expand Image)

Typically, when the NAO goes into a negative phase, high pressure sets up over the oceans in  the northern latitudes. Essentially,  this acts as an atmospheric block, allowing frequent shots of cold arctic air to flow south into the central and eastern US, and locks it in place lasting as long as the NAO stays in a negative phase. This also allows for big storms to form and move up the eastern seaboard. The current forecast calls for a more negative NAO to set up by mid December, in the mean time we can expect temperatures over the Northeast to continue to oscillate between average and above average with no big storms on the horizon for the eastern seaboard.

The Graphic Below Explains The NEGATIVE PHASE of The North Atlantic Oscillation

Graphic from National Geographic Magazine, March 2000

(Click to Expand Image)

The Graphic Below Explains The POSITIVE PHASE of The North Atlantic Oscillation

Graphic from National Geographic Magazine, March 2000

(Click to Expand Image)

Peak Winds Measured In The New York Metropolitan Area During Sandy

Tropical Storm Force Winds: 39-73 Miles Per Hour

Hurricane Force Winds: 74 Miles Per Hour or Greater

(Click Image To Expand)

Weather Synopsis November 19th 2012

 

(Pleasant Conditions Continue This Week)

 
After a calm and fair stretch of weather last week, our streak of pleasant conditions will persist through our Thanksgiving week. Expect dry conditions to prevail across the Northeast as we go through one of the busiest travel weeks of the year. In addition to the fair weather, afternoon high temperatures will moderate as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday. Highs this week will range in the 50s and even approach 60 degrees on Thanksgiving day and on Black Friday. However, it is late November in the Northeast and these pleasant and unseasonably mild conditions wont last much longer. Our next weather maker will begin to impact western portions of the region beginning late Friday; a cold front  will approach the lower Great Lakes Friday night initiating some light rain showers. This frontal system will sweep though the entire region through the day Saturday ushering in a much colder and more seasonable air mass. Behind the front the first Lake Effect snow showers of the season are likely on Saturday downwind of the lakes. Buffalo could pick up its first measurable snow flurries of the season with a few inches of the white stuff not out of the question. Moreover, this cold front will mark the beginning of a change in the weather pattern.

 

(Changing Weather Pattern After Thanksgiving)

 
The long range forecast after this week suggest we will be going from a zonal jet stream which  promoted the fair weather over the past week, to a more amplified meridional flow which, this time of the year favors a colder, more active, stormier and snowier weather pattern. This is the same weather pattern that brought us prolonged cold conditions as well as the memorable blizzards during the 2010-2011winter season two years ago. We lucked out with mild conditions last winter, but if this forecast holds true we could be in line for a harsh winter season. In summary, expect another week of fair weather before we begin to see the signs old man winter rearing his ugly head in the weeks to come.

Weather Synopsis November 13th 2012

(No storms expected this week)

The spring like weather that greeted the region from Sunday through the better half of Monday has been replaced with more seasonal conditions thanks to a cold front which swept through the region yesterday evening, replacing the mild 70 degrees we experienced with colder 30's. In addition to the cold temperatures  the cold front also produced rain as it traveled eastward with some light Lake Effect Snow showers downwind of the Lakes. The rain continues this morning along the Atlantic coast as the cold front is finally making its way out of the picture, as it does so expect conditions to improve through the course of the day. In the wake of this cold front, high pressure will dominate our weather as we head through the rest of the week. This high pressure system will promote a nice stretch of fair, but chilly weather over the Northeast through the end of the week. High temperatures this week will generally range in the low to mid 40's with upper 40's to low 50's along the coast, while overnight lows dip into the low 30's, with upper 30's along the coast. To sum it all up, the good news is that there are no storm on the horizon; this means that there is a much needed  dose of fair weather for residents of the New Jersey, New York City and Long Island area who are still rebuilding after Hurricane Sandy, after last week's Nor'easter put a damper on the clean up efforts.

November 7th Nor'easter Snowfall Totals in the Tristate Area

Snow Accumulations in New York

Westchester: 9.5" (Bronxville)
                       6.3" (Yonkers)
                       5.0" (White Plains)

Manhattan: 4.7" (Central Park)

Bronx: 5.0" (Parkchester)
             4.4" (Riverdale)
             3.0" (City Island)

Brooklyn: 4.0" (Marine Park)
                  4.0" (Bay Ridge)
                  3.5" (Sheepshead Bay)

Queens: 7.9" (Bayside)
               7.0" (Flushing)
               4.2" (Astoria)

Staten Island: 6.4" (Great Kills)
                        3.0" (Fort Wadsworth)

Suffolk: 5.8" (Stony Brook)
              5.0" (Ronkonkoma)
              4.0" (Macarthur Airport)

Nassau: 8.0" (Valley Stream)
               7.0" (Rockville Center)
               4.1" (Wantagh)

Snow Accumulations in New Jersey

Bergen: 7.5" (Ridgefield)
               4.0" (Paramus)

Essex: 6.2" (Newark Airport)
             6.0" (Caldwell)

Hudson: 6.0" (Jersey City)
                3.3" (Hoboken)

Union: 5.4" (Elizabeth)
             3.5" (Union)

Snow Accumulations in Connecticut

Fairfield: 13.5" (Monroe)
                  8.0" (Bridgeport)
                  5.3" (Stamford)

New Haven: 9.0" (New Haven)
                      6.3" (Waterbury)

Weather Synopsis November 6, 2012

(Cold air in place ahead of a coastal storm)

Chilly temperatures are greeting many across the Northeast this election day thanks to a cool high pressure system sitting over the region. Expect high temperatures generally in the 40s for most of the region, with 30s into northern New England. Despite the cold temperatures, this system of high pressure is also producing fair weather for today for the entire region with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. For tonight, mostly clear skies will prevail as that  high pressure system stays in place, this will allow temperatures to dip into the 20s across much of the region, with 30s along the coast from Boston down to Philly. As we head into Wednesday, fair weather will continue over the Great Lakes, however we'll be monitoring our next weather maker making its way into the picture that will be affecting coastal communities along the Midatlantic and southern New England. A strengthening storm will ride up the eastern seaboard from coastal North Carolina to the Midatlantic on Wednesday. This system is expected to rapidly intensify off the Midatlantic coast from Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning producing heavy precipitation and strong gusty winds for some of the same coastal areas already ravished by Hurricane Sandy one week ago. Winds could gust up and over 50 miles per hour along the immediate coast on Wednesday night from the Jersey Shore to Long Island to Cape Cod. Precipitation will start off as rain Wednesday afternoon initially.

( Rain to start, mixing with snow and sleet overnight Wednesday)

Then depending on the track of this storm as it comes up the coast, there could be enough cold air dragged in on the back side of the storm to produce a  mix of rain wet snow and sleet Wednesday night and early Thursday morning with a light accumulation from New Jersey to western Long Island including New York City, up to western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southern Vermont and New Hampshire, to Maine. A slight change in the storm track would change this forecast considerably. If the storm track closer to the coast precipitation would remain in the form of rain for these areas, with any frozen precipitation pushing further inland. Temperature wise, we can expect the chilly temperatures to stick around for the next few days before a brief warm up heads our way this weekend, with some temperature readings in the 60s returning to the picture on Sunday.

Hurricane Sandy 45 Minute Doccumentary by National Geographic

Significant Threat to New Jersey, New York City and Long Island

Sunday evening Sandy will begin to turn back to the north, then north west again about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras. During this time, as Sandy turns more westerly towards land it will begin to join forces with a frontal system that will be moving east toward the coast. From Sunday evening through Monday, this frontal system will become stationary, and then begin to literally absorb a vast amount of tropical moisture associated with Sandy in a virtual tug of war between systems.This will form a large swath of very heavy rain covering over the Midatlantic and southern New England.

Because many trees have begun to lose their leaves, storm drains and sewers will become blocked by these fallen leaves. This will lead to urban flash flooding especially in those flood prone areas. As Sandy gets absorbed by this frontal system it will undergo a metamorphosis, losing its tropical characteristics and becoming more of a larger hybrid type of storm, something like a super Nor'Easter with tropical storm forced  winds extending out an extraordinary 400 to 500 miles in diameter with embedded hurricane forced wind gusts.

This hybrid storm is expected to make landfall somewhere over in the Midatlantic between the Delmarva Peninsula and the Jersey Shore on Monday with sustained winds up and over 70 miles per hour. This will have dire repercussions for coastal communities from: The Chesapeake Bay, to the Jersey Shore, to Long Island, to Cape Cod as the ingredients for major coastal inundations are becoming apparent.

These ingredients include: prolonged easterly winds up to tropical storm force, storm surge associated with Sandy, higher than normal tides expected during Monday's full moon, as well as heavy rain; the combination of these factors could potentially, at worst, rearrange coast lines carving out new inlets and new barrier islands. This storm will also have a wintery side as cold air gets dragged into the rear flank of the storm. This could produce a heavy wet snowfall over the higher elevations of the Appalachians in the Virginas and extreme eastern North Carolina. Wide spread power outages that will last for several days can be expected for millions of residents from North Carolina to Long Island due to the nature of this storm.

This storm could wind up totaling up and over $1 Billion in damages when its all said and done, having both a big economic and human toll. Like Hurricane Irene last year evacuation orders will likely be in effect for low lying zones of New York City making this the second time in history the city has issued evacuation orders due to weather. This storm will be nothing to sneeze at as tidal flooding could surpass what was experienced with Irene last year and Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 26: Tropical Cyclone Sandy

 

(Projected Path Of Sandy)

As of 3:00am Tropical Cyclone Sandy has a minimum central pressure, measured by hurricane reconnaissance, at 968 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour, gusting to 115 miles per hour making it a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Sandy is centered approximately 200 miles to the east of Miami, FL currently battering the islands of the Bahamas with hurricane conditions. Its forward movement is to the NNW at 12 miles per hour. Tropical storm forced winds extend approximately 200 miles out from the center of circulation reaching all the way to Florida's east coast. The projected path of Sandy will continue its movement to the NNW until about Friday evening, coming within 100 miles to 150 miles east of Florida. During this time, the east coast of Florida will experience tropical storm forced wind gusts and heavy rain bands associated with Hurricane Sandy to the east. From here, Sandy will begin to turn more to the north, then north east by early Saturday morning. As it does so, its circulation will begin to expand in diameter with bands of heavy rain and tropical storm forced winds reaching eastern North Carolina by Sunday morning. By Sunday evening Sandy will begin to turn back to the north, then north west again about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras. During this time, as Sandy turns more westerly towards land it will begin to join forces with a frontal system that will be moving east toward the coast. From Sunday evening through Monday, this frontal system will become stationary, and then begin to literally absorb a vast amount of tropical moisture associated with Sandy in a virtual tug of war between systems.This will form a large swath of very heavy rain covering over the Midatlantic and southern New England. Because many trees have begun to lose their leaves, storm drains and sewers will become blocked by these fallen leaves. This will lead to urban flash flooding especially in those flood prone areas. As Sandy gets absorbed by this frontal system it will undergo a metamorphosis, losing its tropical characteristics and becoming more of a larger hybrid type of storm with tropical storm forced  winds extending out an extraordinary 400 to 500 miles in diameter with embedded hurricane forced wind gusts. This hybrid storm is expected to make landfall somewhere over in the Midatlantic from the Delmarva Peninsula and the Jersey Shore on Monday with sustained winds up and over 70 miles per hour. This will have dire repercussions for coastal communities from Cape Hatteras to the Jersey Shore, to Long Island, to Cape Cod as the ingredients for major coastal inundations are becoming apparent. These ingredients include: strong easterly winds up to tropical storm force, storm surge associated with Sandy, higher than normal tides expected during Monday's full moon, as well as heavy rain; the combination of these factors could potentially, at worst, rearrange coast lines carving out new inlets. This storm will also have a wintery side as cold air gets dragged into the rear flank of the storm. This could produce a heavy wet snowfall over the higher elevations of the Appalachians in the Virginas and extreme eastern North Carolina. Wide spread power outages that will last for several days can be expected for millions of residents from North Carolina to Long Island due to the nature of this storm. This storm could wind up totaling up and over $1 Billion when its all said and done, having both a big economic and human toll. Like Hurricane Irene last year evacuation orders will likely be in effect for low lying zones of New York City making this the second time in history the city has issued evacuation orders due to weather. This storm will be nothing to sneeze at as tidal flooding could surpass what was experienced with Irene last year and Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 25: Tropical Cyclone Sandy

(Satellite Loop of Sandy's Well Defined Eye Crossing Over Cuba)

Tropical Cyclone Sandy is now of Category 2 Hurricane intensity as it moves just to the north of Cuba and into the Bahamas. As of this morning Sandy has a minimum central pressure of 967 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour gusting to 130 miles per hour around the eye wall, its forward motion is to the north at 18 miles per hour. Sandy crossed the island of Jamaica yesterday evening as a category 1 storm, then overnight its winds increased to 110 miles per hour making it a strong category 2 hurricane over Cuba. This system is forecast to continue on a northerly trajectory  this evening and into Friday moving about 150 miles to the east of Florida, as it does so its circulation will expand so even at this distance it will lash southeast Florida with squalls of heavy rain and tropical storm forced wind gusts, mainly confined to the immediate coast from Ft. Lauderdale to Port Canaveral. For this reason, the National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm warnings for southeastern Florida.

(Sandy Sideswipes Florida)

At this point, Sandy's forward speed will begin to increase as it begins to feel the effects of the jet stream. Thereon after predicting the track of this storm begins to get complex as there is a fair amount of disagreement among the forecast models; nevertheless the general consensus for this storm to move northeast and then hook sharply to the west as it phases with a frontal system riding on the jet stream forming one large hybrid storm system  or "Subtropical Storm", which exhibits both tropical and extra-tropical characteristics with a wind field extending hundreds of miles. This will produce large swells up and down the eastern seaboard and a tremendous amount of beach erosion. To top it all off, this will come at the astronomical high tide, further amplifying the storm surge anticipated where this system makes landfall. The now question is how soon will this phasing occur, how strong will the storm be and where will it make landfall. Some models suggest a fairly strong storm making landfall between the Delmarva peninsula and southern New Jersey as early as Monday, while others suggest a weaker land falling system over northern New England as late a Wednesday. This broad range in the track will mean the difference between a rainy day with breezy conditions or a powerful Nor'easter like storm with strong gales up to hurricane force, large storm surge and heavy precipitation. It would be wise to monitor this storm's track especially of you live along the coast from Virginia to Long Island, to northern Maine as this situation has the potential to pose a serious economic and human impact.

(Computer Model Uncertain On the Exact Track of the Storm)

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 23: Tropical Cyclone Sandy

For several days now the meteorological community has been monitoring the western Caribbean Sea for the potential of tropical development. Computer models have been consistent with the idea of certain atmospheric parameters that would fall into place in this region that would be conducive for spawning a tropical system.Yesterday a wave of low pressure over the warm waters of the Caribbean within this ripe atmospheric setting has coalesced to form Tropical Storm Sandy, the eighteenth named tropical system of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of the noon time hour, Sandy is centered approximately 300 miles south of the island nation of Jamaica with a minimum central pressure of 993 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. Its movement is to the NNE ever so slowly at 4 miles per hour, because Sandy is situated in such a favorable environment, it is expected to intensify to perhaps hurricane status before making its first landfall over Jamaica. Due to its broad circulation and slow forward speed, this system will produce copious amounts of rainfall over Jamaica, Cuba, and the impoverished nation of Haiti. This could have a devastating affect as these are fairly mountainous nations and are prone to mudslides and flash flooding. As Sandy progresses to the north it will likely loose strength as its center of circulation passes over the mountains of Cuba before re-emerging over the waters of the Atlantic Ocean over the Bahamas, likely regaining some strength there. Thereafter, the path of this system will pose a challenge as several factors could influence where Sandy goes next. Some computer models have this system staying away from the US mainland as its influenced by a weak subtropical jet stream and takes it out to sea. While others indicate that Sandy will be influenced by a stronger polar jet stream, if this happens there would be two possible scenarios depending on the timing of the jet streams' interaction with Sandy. In the first case scenario, Sandy would begin to interact with the jet stream sooner, this would bring its circulation on a close approach to the east coast of Florida by Friday bringing bands of heavy rain and perhaps tropical forced winds to places like West Palm Beach before it re-curves out to the open waters of the Atlantic. In the second and perhaps worst case scenario, Sandy would begin to interact with the jet stream later moving north past the Bahamas and then accelerate on a bee line up the eastern seaboard targeting anywhere from North Carolina to Maine this weekend. In this worst case scenario, Sandy would be absorbed by a storm system with an associated cold front that will be ridding on the jet stream that will be moving east from the Great Lakes. The phasing of these two system has the potential to wreak havoc on the eastern US from the Midatlantic to New England as well as locations inland from the coast in the Northeast as some models suggest. It is important to note that nothing is set in stone, there is little confidence in the forecast at this time to predict what influence, if any, this system will have on the forecast but it does bear watching.

(Computer Model Uncertainty) 

Just for fun, lets discuss some of the bizarre details that some computer models are predicting this weekend; continuing on the absolute "worst case scenario" as Sandy begins to interact with this other storm system riding on the jet stream, the two storms will phase with one another just off the east coast of the Midatlantic. A swath of heavy precipitation will break out over the Northeast with gale and storm forced winds from Virginia to New England producing tremendous beach erosion and coastal flooding. Once Sandy becomes completely absorbed by the frontal boundary the entire system will become "negatively tilted" pulling an incredible amount of tropical moisture out ahead of it over New England producing torrential rains and flash flooding; while dragging cold air in on the back side producing a swath of heavy wet snow with thunder and lightning over interior sections of the Northeast and Midatlantic especially over the higher elevations of the Appalachians leading to wide spread powers outages for days. The entire system will then lift north into Canada early next week losing strength as it does so. This would be an historic storm if it pans out this way; as bizarre and highly unlikely as it seems, this has happened before during the super storm dubbed "The Perfect Storm" this time back in 1991 when Hurricane Grace phased with a frontal system ridding on the jet stream just off the east coast causing devastation in the Northeast.

(1991 Satellite Imagery Hurricane Grace Pahses with a Frontal System off the Northeast Coast)

NOAA Study: Shifting Winds in the Arctic could have Significant Impact closer to Home

This article is attributed to AccuWeather.com, a great source for weather news, and forecast.

(Negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (higher pressures over the Arctic), which forces cold air farther south into the mid-latitudes)

Higher pressure over the North American continent and Greenland are driving recent changes in the wind patterns across the Arctic, which are impacting sea ice and could bring changes to the weather across North America and Europe, according to a new study that was led by NOAA.

Researchers examined the wind patterns in the subarctic in the early summer between 2007 and 2012 as compared to the average for 1981 to 2010. They discovered that the previously normal west-to-east flowing upper-level winds have been replaced by a more north-south undulating, or wave-like pattern, according to the NOAA news report.

This new wind pattern transports warmer air into the Arctic and pushes Arctic air farther south towards the mid-latitudes, potentially leading to more persistent weather patterns.

Enhanced warming of the Arctic affects the jet stream by slowing its west-to-east winds and by promoting larger north-south meanders in the flow, according to NOAA.

However, predicting those meanders and where the weather associated with them will be located in any given year, however, remains a challenge, according to NOAA.

For example, the previous two winters were very different from one another in North America. There was strong high pressure blocking in the northern latitudes both winters, but the position of these high pressure ridges was very different. Knowing where these blocking highs set up during long periods of the winter is crucial to the forecasts.

The researchers say that with more solar energy going into the Arctic Ocean because of lost ice, there is reason to expect more extreme weather events, such as heavy snowfall, heat waves, and flooding in North America and Europe but these will vary in location, intensity, and timescales. (from NOAA)

As the Arctic warms at twice the global rate, we expect an increased probability of extreme weather events across the temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere, where billions of people live," said Jennifer Francis, Ph.D, of Rutgers. (from NOAA)

----------

The study, entitled "The Recent Shift in Early Summer Arctic Atmospheric Circulation," was co-authored by scientists from Rutgers University in New Jersey, the University of Sheffield in the United Kingdom, and the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, a partnership of NOAA and the University of Washington.

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 16: Tropical Cyclone Rafael

(Click Image To Enlarge)

As of Tuesday morning Tropical Cyclone Rafael is a category 1 Hurricane over the western Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 90 miles per hour  gusting to 115 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of 971 millibars. Its movement is to the NNE at 24 miles per hour away from the US and is accelerating as it is essentially picked up by the jet stream. Its current trajectory will bring the center of Rafael on a close approach to Bermuda by this evening bringing torrential rains and tropical storm force winds to the island. But just as quickly at it comes in it will go out as its forward speed increases with the influence of the strong October jet stream. By this time tomorrow, Rafael will begin to lose its tropical characteristics becoming extra tropical over the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean where it will remain of maritime interest. Looking ahead, there are indicators of a region of favorable tropical storm development setting up over the western Caribbean as the month of October comes to a close. Some models indicate a region of reduced wind shear aloft over this region and at the same time, a wave of low pressure moving in from central America. With water temperatures in the Caribbean well into the 80s, it is plausible to perceive the notion that if these atmospheric conditions do indeed transpire there could very well be tropical development in this region. Some forecast models have been consistent with the idea of some tropical system developing over the this region by mid next week that could  potentially threaten the US mainland, particularly the state of Florida. At this point, forecast confidence is low. Even though it is much too soon to call, this does bear watching.

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 12: Tropical Storm Patty

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An area of unorganized thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Bahamas associated with a stalled out frontal boundary that has persisted over the past week has coalesced to form a closed circulation at surface levels. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL has dubbed this system Tropical Storm Patty, the 16th named tropical system of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of 12:00 am Friday morning, Patty is centered just north of the Bahamas; it is a fairly weak storm with a minimum central pressure of 1005 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. This system is not expected to further develop, as a strong jet stream will hinder any further strengthening. Tropical Storm Patty is expected to slowly track to the west south west while loosing its convection and becoming an open circulation over the Bahamas, while its thunderstorms gets sheared away by the jet stream. This system will have minor impacts if any for the US, including an elevated risk of rip currents and enhanced thunderstorm activity over southern Florida early next week but that's about it. Statistically, the month of October does produce a shorter secondary peak in tropical storm activity over the Atlantic Ocean, so it is not uncommon to see the tropics ramp up after a lull in activity after the real peak in mid September, however these storms tend to encounter strong wind shear aloft as the jet stream becomes more amplified towards the fall and winter months. Looking ahead, there are indications of another tropical system developing this weekend. A tropical wave to the east of the lesser Antilles will move north into a more favorable region with reduced shear. If it does develop it will be named Rafael, this potential storm system does have the opportunity to become a stronger and more organized storm early next week but will pose no threat to the US. It is expected to be absorbed by the jet stream, loosing its tropical characteristics threatening the island of Bermuda on its northerly track.

Weather Synopsis October 11, 2012

Fall is in the air over the Northeast on this cool October morning as temperatures dipped into the 30s and 40s from the lower Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and New England. A High pressure system over the region is to blame for the chilly temperatures experienced forcing many to crank up the thermostats last night. This area of High Pressure will stick around today providing cool and dry sinking air, promoting mostly sunny conditions across the region. Our next weather maker will arrive on Friday as a cold front will once again sweep the region giving us a reinforcing shot of cold air, producing a wide spread frost for most of the region during the overnight hours on Friday into Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will be stuck in the 40s across interior sections of the Northeast with 50s closer to the Atlantic coast, overnight Lows will be dipping into the 20s and 30s. Along with the cold air, there is a chance of light precipitation during the morning hours across the lower Great Lakes on Friday, though it will feel as if its cold enough for snow, precipitation will likely be a light drizzle or rain shower ending well before Noon. Aside from the cold, Friday will turn out to be a pleasent day weather wise as another area of High Pressure trails in the wake of the cold front. What about the weekend? we can look forward to a nice warm up across the region as the High Pressure system moves off to our east and a southerly flow sets up behind it ushering in a moderating airmass; however we can expect rain and some thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday confined to western and central New York State as a storm system approaches from the west. Looking into next week the forecast calls for warmer tempratures with the possibility of rain for both the begining and the end of the work week, with the greatest chance of precipitation likely at the end of the work week. This weekened would be a great time to head out and experience the brilliant colors of Autumn for us fall enthusiast. Weather conditions have been ripe for nature's aray of colors; the combination of the recent dry spell this summer along with the waves of cold air these past few weeks are making for a spectcular display of fall foliage across the region with many locations approaching peak conditions.

Weather Synopsis October 2nd 2012

Welcome to October; for many it is the best time of the year as temperatures begin to fall, leaves begin to change, and the MLB playoffs gets into high gear. Weather wise, the month is off to a rainy start in the Northeast as a storm system centered over the Tennessee valley is producing unsettled conditions over the region. The chance of precipitation will remain through Wednesday in the Mid Atlantinc and into Thursday  for New England as this area of low pressure lifts north into Canadian terretories. Along with the rain, this system will moderate our temperatures a bit across the Northeast, highs in the upper 60s and 70s can be expected for the remainder of the work week before big changes head our way this weekend. The month of October is known for highly changable weather and big temperature swings over the northern U.S. as we are heading well into the fall season. This week will be no exception, there are already signs of this flux in the forecast as a cold front is piercing through the Nothern Rockies today. This cold front marks the leading edge of colder temperatures and is forcast to invade the Northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday producing the first few inches of snow fall of the season for many folks in the path of this cold air intrusion from Montana, the Dakotas and northern Minesota. This cold airmass will be moderating as it pushes east, but will still remain quite chilly as it approaches the Northeastern U.S. this weekend and early next week, initiating the first frost for much of the interior sections of the region with overnight lows dipping into the 30s and afternoon highs hard pressed to rise above the 50s. Along with the dip in temperatures, this cold front will bring a chilly rain on Saturday from central Pennsylvania through Western New York and Sunday from the Mid Atlantinc on north to New England.

Replacement Weather Satellite for GOES East

This article is attributed to AccuWeather.com, a great source for weather news, and forecast.

Like the National Football League referee situation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is using a replacement satellite to cover the failure of GOES-13. A major weather satellite operated by the U.S. government to monitor the east coast of the U.S. and the Atlantic Ocean has gone dark due to technical issues. The failure of Satellite GOES-13 (GOES-East) satellite has left a gap for meteorologists trying to catch a view of the eastern Atlantic and has satellite coverage of the Atlantic spread a bit thin.



GOES-14 was activated and repositioned on Monday to fill part of the void left to satellite imagery in eastern North America and the Atlantic. However, images on the eastern edge of view, over the eastern Atlantic are distorted. While other satellites of the eastern Atlantic are available, such as the European operated, METEOSAT, it makes the tracking of systems within the entire basin as a whole more difficult. The U.S also has polar orbiting satellites. However, the images are rather narrow and not continuous, like the GOES, geostationary satellites.



The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed Monday that GOES-13 has been placed in stand-by mode, following increased vibrations, or "noise," observed in imagery over the past couple of days. Launched in 2006, GOES-13 went operational in 2010 and was expected to remain in service for several more years. Stand-by mode means the satellite has basically been taken offline until problems are resolved.



The vibrations were severe enough that data collection and imagery was returning to earth significantly degraded over the past couple of days. NOAA engineers are currently working on a solution to correct the problem with GOES-13 from the ground and have no timetable for return of data collection. Earlier this year, in March, GOES-15 (GOES-West) was out of action for several days and it was GOES-13 that had to be repositioned to fill part of the gap. The result was distorted images on part of the Pacific Basin for a time. Launch of the first of a new generation of weather satellites, known as the GOES-R series is not scheduled to begin until 2015.



Satellite images and loops are is available for free at AccuWeather.com

Tracking Tropical Cyclone Isaac (8/27)

Tracking Tropical Cyclone Isaac (8/26)

As of Sunday morning, Tropical Cyclone Isaac is currently at tropical storm intensity with maximum sustained wind speeds up to 65 miles per hour, only 9 miles per hour shy of hurricane intensity. Tropical storm forced winds of 39 miles per hour or greater associated with Isaac extend as far out as West Palm Beach, Florida. The center of circulation is just to the south east of the Florida Keyes. The strongest winds associated with Isaac will be felt in the most intense rain bands in the upper right hand quadrant of the storm. There is an elevated risk of flooding as well as tornadoes for all of south Florida as it is not uncommon for land-falling tropical systems to produce torrential rains and rain wrapped tornadoes. Unfortunately, conditions will get worst through the evening on Sunday before they begin to improve on Monday across southern Florida. Upper level winds are expected to steer Isaac into the open waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, an area that is favorable for strengthening. Isaac is expected to rapidly intensify to category 2 hurricane status with winds up and over 100 miles per hour. Isaac is expected to make a secondary land-fall some where along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, although there is uncertainty as to where the center of circulation will make land-fall the impacts will be wide spread as it is a fairly large circulation. Residents along the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana need to keep a close eye on this storm as this storm will pose a serious threat to life and property.

Friday July 3rd 2012

 From The National Weather Service...

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS...THIS WILL POTENTIALLY
RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES THAT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WOULD PROMPT A HEAT ADVISORY.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE. 

Warm temperatures to greet in the month of May

After a chilly past couple of days across the Northeast, a warmer and more humid air mass is set to usher in the month of May. Temperatures over the region have been running between 5F and 10F degrees below average, and in some cases into western New York, temperatures have been as much as 20F below the normal with Snow during the early part of last week. That is all about to change as temperatures could be hoovering near record high territories in some cases this up coming week. It will feel more like summer than spring for the entire region with temperatures into the 80's during the latter part of the week. A strong high pressure system over the region that has been responsible for the brilliant sunshine and the spectacular weather this weekend will be moving out towards the east of the region. This will produce a flow out of the south ushering in warmer and more muggy conditions. Temperatures will moderate to the middle 60's Monday and Tuesday with upper 70's and 80's for the rest of the week. Along with the warmth will come the humidity, enough so that we could experience instability with your typical garden variety air mass thunder storms during the afternoon hours. There after, indicators are pointing towards more seasonal temperatures and rain for the week of May 6.

Potential Storm Brewing for Sunday and Monday

A round of rain will swing by western New York State on Saturday with a cold front moving through the area; then a heavy drenching rain is on tap for Sunday night into Monday night for the Northeastern United States with the potential for heavy wet snow for western New York State down to western Pennsylvania and West Virginia especially for the higher elevations. A storm system will move up the coast and is expected to wind up off shore ushering in cold air behind it. Heavy rain is expected over much of the region on the order of 1 to 3 inches or better especially along the Atlantic coast including the big cities from D.C. to Boston, then away from the coast this rain could mix with and change over to wet snow for some interior portions of the Northeast. Given the anticipated high precipitation rates, if the air is just marginally cold enough some regions could pick up a significant amount of snow for this time of the year - most likely over the higher terrain of western New York, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia - while other areas in this highlighted region could pick a few inches of wet snow accumulation at the lower elevations from Buffalo, NY to the Finger Lakes region.

Buffalo Forecast April 14th

Buffalo forecast April 7th 2012

Buffalo Forecast April 2nd

Buffalo Forecast Thursday March 8th

A cold front moves through western New York bringing rain an colder temperatures. Rain could mix in with snow before tapering off late Thursday night. Low temperatures dropping to the upper 20's. It will be colder on Friday with Highs in the middle 30's. A quick moving storm system will produce some light snow showers that will be enhanced by the warmer lake waters. We could pick up a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow by Friday night. Low temperatures on Friday will dive down to the low 20's. And on Saturday, a much better day weather wise, but it will be cold; partly cloudy skies with a High in the middle 30's.

February 2012 European Temperature Anomalies

While February remained mild across the lower 48, Europe experienced its coldest temperatures in decades during a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. This graphic depicts the temperature anomalies observed across Europe and Asia during February courtesy of N.O.A.A.

Snowfall Totals Jan 19 - Jan 20

NEW YORK

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...

CHAPPAQUA: 7.0 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

THORNWOOD: 6.5 Inches 100 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MOUNT KISCO: 6.3 Inches 230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

ARMONK: 6.2 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

DOBBS FERRY: 6.1 Inches 400 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

YONKERS: 6.1 Inches 410 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

OSSINING: 5.5 Inches 1256 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MOUNT VERNON: 4.5 Inches 215 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

HARRISON: 4.5 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON: 4.5 Inches 200 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

WHITE PLAINS: 4.2 Inches 530 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

BRONXVILLE: 3.9 Inches 100 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...BRONX COUNTY...

FIELDSTON: 5.0 Inches 1210 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

BRONX ZOO: 4.2 Inches 1200 PM 1/21 BRONX ZOO

RIVERDALE: 4.0 Inches 1223 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

SOUNDVIEW: 3.8 Inches 1210 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...QUEENS COUNTY...

ASTORIA: 3.5 Inches 1245 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT: 3.4 Inches 100 PM 1/21 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

BAYSIDE: 2.0 Inches 1210 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

KENNEDY AIRPORT: 1.6 Inches 700 PM 1/21 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...KINGS COUNTY (BROOKLYN)...

SHEEPSHEAD BAY: 2.1 Inches 530 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY (MANHATTAN)...

CENTRAL PARK: 4.3 Inches 700 PM 1/21 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

UPPER WEST SIDE: 4.2 Inches 1200 PM 1/21 SPOTTER- W 85TH ST

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

ORIENT: 7.2 Inches 700 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SOUTHAMPTON: 6.0 Inches 906 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SOUTHOLD: 6.0 Inches 800 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

UPTON: 5.5 Inches 700 PM 1/21 NWS OFFICE

MASTIC: 5.4 Inches 303 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

CUTCHOGUE: 5.3 Inches 500 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

RIVERHEAD: 5.2 Inches 1220 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

SOUND BEACH: 5.2 Inches 1215 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

BAITING HOLLOW: 5.0 Inches 1258 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SHOREHAM: 5.0 Inches 554 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

EASTPORT: 4.8 Inches 1209 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

ST. JAMES: 4.7 Inches 1250 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

PORT JEFFERSON: 4.7 Inches 615 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MILLER PLACE: 4.5 Inches 530 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

SETAUKET: 4.5 Inches 1215 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MOUNT SINAI: 4.4 Inches 245 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

STONY BROOK: 4.4 Inches 300 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MEDFORD: 4.0 Inches 330 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

KINGS PARK: 3.7 Inches 330 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

CENTERPORT: 3.7 Inches 1230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

RONKONKOMA: 3.6 Inches 1246 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

ISLIP AIRPORT: 3.6 Inches 700 PM 1/21 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

BABYLON: 3.5 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

NORTHPORT: 3.0 Inches 300 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...

BAYVILLE: 5.3Inches 155 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

NEW HYDE PARK: 4.2 Inches 600 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

JERICHO: 3.3 Inches 600 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MASSAPEQUA: 3.2 Inches 600 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

SYOSSET: 3.0 Inches 800 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

BELLEROSE TERRACE: 2.3 Inches 230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

CARLE PLACE: 2.3 Inches 1223 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

HEMPSTEAD: 2.3 Inches 1200 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WOODMERE: 2.3 Inches 200 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

LYNBROOK: 2.0 Inches 651 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ORANGE COUNTY...

TUXEDO PARK: 6.0 Inches 335 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MONROE: 5.1 Inches 1233 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WARWICK: 5.0 Inches 115 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MIDDLETOWN: 5.0 Inches 1221 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

HARRIMAN: 5.0 Inches 1259 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

BLOOMING GROVE: 4.8 Inches 326 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

GOSHEN: 4.8 Inches 100 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW HAMPTON: 4.5 Inches 110 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MONTGOMERY: 4.5 Inches 350 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

NEW WINDSOR: 3.9 300 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...PUTNAM COUNTY...

CARMEL: 6.0 Inches 211 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MAHOPAC: 5.0 Inches 330 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

PUTNAM VALLEY: 4.6 Inches 200 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...ROCKLAND COUNTY:...

TALLMAN: 7.0 Inches 439 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

THIELLS: 6.0 Inches 205 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

VALLEY COTTAGE: 6.0 Inches 1205 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

STONY POINT: 5.8 Inches 1255 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW CITY: 5.4 Inches 130 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

Jan 20 Northeast Snow Storm Late Friday Night and Saturday

The next clipper in a series of snow storms impacting the Northeast is forecast to arrive tonight into Saturday. Snow will overspread the region late Friday night and early Saturday morning; the snow will end from west to east late Saturday morning into the Saturday afternoon hours. The heaviest snow is expected along Interstate 80 from Pennsylvania to NYC and southern New England with accumulations in the order of 4 to 7 inches with locally heavier amounts in the mountains. Sleet and freezing rain could mix in with the snow for a time on Saturday afternoon in Long Island with the influence of the warm Atlantic Ocean, this could hold down snow accumulations. A general 1 to 4 inches of snow is expected along the New York State Thruway from Buffalo to Albany. After this storm system departs, a brief warm up early next week will melt most of the snow that has fallen making for a wet and slushy mess.

Snowfall Totals Jan 19

...ERIE COUNTY...

WILLIAMSVILLE: 4.0 Inches 540 PM 1/19 PUBLIC

SWORMVILLE: 3.5 Inches 749 PM 1/19 NWS EMPLOYEE

AKRON: 3.3 Inches 610 PM 1/19 FELL IN 2 HOURS

AMHERST: 3.1 Inches 515 PM 1/19 TRAINED SPOTTER

BUFFALO: 3.0 Inches 652 PM 1/19 PUBLIC

BUFFALO INTL ARPT: 2.9 Inches 600 PM 1/19 ASOS

WEST SENECA: 2.4 Inches 657 PM 1/19 PUBLIC

EAST AURORA: 2.1 Inches 645 PM 1/19 NWS EMPLOYEE

BLASDELL: 1.5 Inches 618 PM 1/19 FELL IN 1.5 HOURS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

NORTH TONAWANDA: 4.2 Inches 703 PM 1/19 COCORAHS

Jan 18: Parade of Snow Storms For The Northeast

A series of fast moving snow storms or clippers are taking aim at the Northeastern US over the course of the next several days. One of these storm systems is currently departing the Northeast, this system started as snow and sleet in the New York City metropolitan area on Monday night, then as temperatures moderated the rain moved in on Teusday. In the wake of this system an arctic air mass produced an outbreak of Lake Effect Snow that will last through the day Wednesday before shutting off in the early afternoon. The next system in the series of storms headed for the region will arrive on Thursday. This will be a quick hitting storm producing more of a nuisance snow from a coating to upto 3 inches of snow accumulations with greater amounts downwind of the lakes Erie and Ontario. Thereafter, yet another storm system will impact the Northeast on Saturday. This system could have a more pronounced impact in the region producing a more significant snowfall. From 3 to 6 inches of snow could fall north of interstate 80 and along the New York State Thruway. This system could also impact coastal regions along interstate 95 especially in New England with accumulating snow that could affect travel in the big cities. It is too early to tell how this system will manifest itself once it reaches the coast on Saturday, but the potential exists for troublesome snowfall. There are more storms on the horizon beyond this weekend along with outbreaks of cold arctic air with short intermittent warmth spells. Winter seems to finally be getting started, remember February and March tend to have their surprises.