Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 12: Tropical Storm Patty

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An area of unorganized thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Bahamas associated with a stalled out frontal boundary that has persisted over the past week has coalesced to form a closed circulation at surface levels. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL has dubbed this system Tropical Storm Patty, the 16th named tropical system of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of 12:00 am Friday morning, Patty is centered just north of the Bahamas; it is a fairly weak storm with a minimum central pressure of 1005 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. This system is not expected to further develop, as a strong jet stream will hinder any further strengthening. Tropical Storm Patty is expected to slowly track to the west south west while loosing its convection and becoming an open circulation over the Bahamas, while its thunderstorms gets sheared away by the jet stream. This system will have minor impacts if any for the US, including an elevated risk of rip currents and enhanced thunderstorm activity over southern Florida early next week but that's about it. Statistically, the month of October does produce a shorter secondary peak in tropical storm activity over the Atlantic Ocean, so it is not uncommon to see the tropics ramp up after a lull in activity after the real peak in mid September, however these storms tend to encounter strong wind shear aloft as the jet stream becomes more amplified towards the fall and winter months. Looking ahead, there are indications of another tropical system developing this weekend. A tropical wave to the east of the lesser Antilles will move north into a more favorable region with reduced shear. If it does develop it will be named Rafael, this potential storm system does have the opportunity to become a stronger and more organized storm early next week but will pose no threat to the US. It is expected to be absorbed by the jet stream, loosing its tropical characteristics threatening the island of Bermuda on its northerly track.