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As of Tuesday morning Tropical Cyclone Rafael is a category 1 Hurricane over the western Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 90 miles per hour gusting to 115 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of 971 millibars. Its movement is to the NNE at 24 miles per hour away from the US and is accelerating as it is essentially picked up by the jet stream. Its current trajectory will bring the center of Rafael on a close approach to Bermuda by this evening bringing torrential rains and tropical storm force winds to the island. But just as quickly at it comes in it will go out as its forward speed increases with the influence of the strong October jet stream. By this time tomorrow, Rafael will begin to lose its tropical characteristics becoming extra tropical over the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean where it will remain of maritime interest. Looking ahead, there are indicators of a region of favorable tropical storm development setting up over the western Caribbean as the month of October comes to a close. Some models indicate a region of reduced wind shear aloft over this region and at the same time, a wave of low pressure moving in from central America. With water temperatures in the Caribbean well into the 80s, it is plausible to perceive the notion that if these atmospheric conditions do indeed transpire there could very well be tropical development in this region. Some forecast models have been consistent with the idea of some tropical system developing over the this region by mid next week that could potentially threaten the US mainland, particularly the state of Florida. At this point, forecast confidence is low. Even though it is much too soon to call, this does bear watching.
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