Weather Synopsis November 19th 2012

 

(Pleasant Conditions Continue This Week)

 
After a calm and fair stretch of weather last week, our streak of pleasant conditions will persist through our Thanksgiving week. Expect dry conditions to prevail across the Northeast as we go through one of the busiest travel weeks of the year. In addition to the fair weather, afternoon high temperatures will moderate as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday. Highs this week will range in the 50s and even approach 60 degrees on Thanksgiving day and on Black Friday. However, it is late November in the Northeast and these pleasant and unseasonably mild conditions wont last much longer. Our next weather maker will begin to impact western portions of the region beginning late Friday; a cold front  will approach the lower Great Lakes Friday night initiating some light rain showers. This frontal system will sweep though the entire region through the day Saturday ushering in a much colder and more seasonable air mass. Behind the front the first Lake Effect snow showers of the season are likely on Saturday downwind of the lakes. Buffalo could pick up its first measurable snow flurries of the season with a few inches of the white stuff not out of the question. Moreover, this cold front will mark the beginning of a change in the weather pattern.

 

(Changing Weather Pattern After Thanksgiving)

 
The long range forecast after this week suggest we will be going from a zonal jet stream which  promoted the fair weather over the past week, to a more amplified meridional flow which, this time of the year favors a colder, more active, stormier and snowier weather pattern. This is the same weather pattern that brought us prolonged cold conditions as well as the memorable blizzards during the 2010-2011winter season two years ago. We lucked out with mild conditions last winter, but if this forecast holds true we could be in line for a harsh winter season. In summary, expect another week of fair weather before we begin to see the signs old man winter rearing his ugly head in the weeks to come.