Significant Threat to New Jersey, New York City and Long Island

Sunday evening Sandy will begin to turn back to the north, then north west again about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras. During this time, as Sandy turns more westerly towards land it will begin to join forces with a frontal system that will be moving east toward the coast. From Sunday evening through Monday, this frontal system will become stationary, and then begin to literally absorb a vast amount of tropical moisture associated with Sandy in a virtual tug of war between systems.This will form a large swath of very heavy rain covering over the Midatlantic and southern New England.

Because many trees have begun to lose their leaves, storm drains and sewers will become blocked by these fallen leaves. This will lead to urban flash flooding especially in those flood prone areas. As Sandy gets absorbed by this frontal system it will undergo a metamorphosis, losing its tropical characteristics and becoming more of a larger hybrid type of storm, something like a super Nor'Easter with tropical storm forced  winds extending out an extraordinary 400 to 500 miles in diameter with embedded hurricane forced wind gusts.

This hybrid storm is expected to make landfall somewhere over in the Midatlantic between the Delmarva Peninsula and the Jersey Shore on Monday with sustained winds up and over 70 miles per hour. This will have dire repercussions for coastal communities from: The Chesapeake Bay, to the Jersey Shore, to Long Island, to Cape Cod as the ingredients for major coastal inundations are becoming apparent.

These ingredients include: prolonged easterly winds up to tropical storm force, storm surge associated with Sandy, higher than normal tides expected during Monday's full moon, as well as heavy rain; the combination of these factors could potentially, at worst, rearrange coast lines carving out new inlets and new barrier islands. This storm will also have a wintery side as cold air gets dragged into the rear flank of the storm. This could produce a heavy wet snowfall over the higher elevations of the Appalachians in the Virginas and extreme eastern North Carolina. Wide spread power outages that will last for several days can be expected for millions of residents from North Carolina to Long Island due to the nature of this storm.

This storm could wind up totaling up and over $1 Billion in damages when its all said and done, having both a big economic and human toll. Like Hurricane Irene last year evacuation orders will likely be in effect for low lying zones of New York City making this the second time in history the city has issued evacuation orders due to weather. This storm will be nothing to sneeze at as tidal flooding could surpass what was experienced with Irene last year and Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 26: Tropical Cyclone Sandy

 

(Projected Path Of Sandy)

As of 3:00am Tropical Cyclone Sandy has a minimum central pressure, measured by hurricane reconnaissance, at 968 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour, gusting to 115 miles per hour making it a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Sandy is centered approximately 200 miles to the east of Miami, FL currently battering the islands of the Bahamas with hurricane conditions. Its forward movement is to the NNW at 12 miles per hour. Tropical storm forced winds extend approximately 200 miles out from the center of circulation reaching all the way to Florida's east coast. The projected path of Sandy will continue its movement to the NNW until about Friday evening, coming within 100 miles to 150 miles east of Florida. During this time, the east coast of Florida will experience tropical storm forced wind gusts and heavy rain bands associated with Hurricane Sandy to the east. From here, Sandy will begin to turn more to the north, then north east by early Saturday morning. As it does so, its circulation will begin to expand in diameter with bands of heavy rain and tropical storm forced winds reaching eastern North Carolina by Sunday morning. By Sunday evening Sandy will begin to turn back to the north, then north west again about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras. During this time, as Sandy turns more westerly towards land it will begin to join forces with a frontal system that will be moving east toward the coast. From Sunday evening through Monday, this frontal system will become stationary, and then begin to literally absorb a vast amount of tropical moisture associated with Sandy in a virtual tug of war between systems.This will form a large swath of very heavy rain covering over the Midatlantic and southern New England. Because many trees have begun to lose their leaves, storm drains and sewers will become blocked by these fallen leaves. This will lead to urban flash flooding especially in those flood prone areas. As Sandy gets absorbed by this frontal system it will undergo a metamorphosis, losing its tropical characteristics and becoming more of a larger hybrid type of storm with tropical storm forced  winds extending out an extraordinary 400 to 500 miles in diameter with embedded hurricane forced wind gusts. This hybrid storm is expected to make landfall somewhere over in the Midatlantic from the Delmarva Peninsula and the Jersey Shore on Monday with sustained winds up and over 70 miles per hour. This will have dire repercussions for coastal communities from Cape Hatteras to the Jersey Shore, to Long Island, to Cape Cod as the ingredients for major coastal inundations are becoming apparent. These ingredients include: strong easterly winds up to tropical storm force, storm surge associated with Sandy, higher than normal tides expected during Monday's full moon, as well as heavy rain; the combination of these factors could potentially, at worst, rearrange coast lines carving out new inlets. This storm will also have a wintery side as cold air gets dragged into the rear flank of the storm. This could produce a heavy wet snowfall over the higher elevations of the Appalachians in the Virginas and extreme eastern North Carolina. Wide spread power outages that will last for several days can be expected for millions of residents from North Carolina to Long Island due to the nature of this storm. This storm could wind up totaling up and over $1 Billion when its all said and done, having both a big economic and human toll. Like Hurricane Irene last year evacuation orders will likely be in effect for low lying zones of New York City making this the second time in history the city has issued evacuation orders due to weather. This storm will be nothing to sneeze at as tidal flooding could surpass what was experienced with Irene last year and Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 25: Tropical Cyclone Sandy

(Satellite Loop of Sandy's Well Defined Eye Crossing Over Cuba)

Tropical Cyclone Sandy is now of Category 2 Hurricane intensity as it moves just to the north of Cuba and into the Bahamas. As of this morning Sandy has a minimum central pressure of 967 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour gusting to 130 miles per hour around the eye wall, its forward motion is to the north at 18 miles per hour. Sandy crossed the island of Jamaica yesterday evening as a category 1 storm, then overnight its winds increased to 110 miles per hour making it a strong category 2 hurricane over Cuba. This system is forecast to continue on a northerly trajectory  this evening and into Friday moving about 150 miles to the east of Florida, as it does so its circulation will expand so even at this distance it will lash southeast Florida with squalls of heavy rain and tropical storm forced wind gusts, mainly confined to the immediate coast from Ft. Lauderdale to Port Canaveral. For this reason, the National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm warnings for southeastern Florida.

(Sandy Sideswipes Florida)

At this point, Sandy's forward speed will begin to increase as it begins to feel the effects of the jet stream. Thereon after predicting the track of this storm begins to get complex as there is a fair amount of disagreement among the forecast models; nevertheless the general consensus for this storm to move northeast and then hook sharply to the west as it phases with a frontal system riding on the jet stream forming one large hybrid storm system  or "Subtropical Storm", which exhibits both tropical and extra-tropical characteristics with a wind field extending hundreds of miles. This will produce large swells up and down the eastern seaboard and a tremendous amount of beach erosion. To top it all off, this will come at the astronomical high tide, further amplifying the storm surge anticipated where this system makes landfall. The now question is how soon will this phasing occur, how strong will the storm be and where will it make landfall. Some models suggest a fairly strong storm making landfall between the Delmarva peninsula and southern New Jersey as early as Monday, while others suggest a weaker land falling system over northern New England as late a Wednesday. This broad range in the track will mean the difference between a rainy day with breezy conditions or a powerful Nor'easter like storm with strong gales up to hurricane force, large storm surge and heavy precipitation. It would be wise to monitor this storm's track especially of you live along the coast from Virginia to Long Island, to northern Maine as this situation has the potential to pose a serious economic and human impact.

(Computer Model Uncertain On the Exact Track of the Storm)

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 23: Tropical Cyclone Sandy

For several days now the meteorological community has been monitoring the western Caribbean Sea for the potential of tropical development. Computer models have been consistent with the idea of certain atmospheric parameters that would fall into place in this region that would be conducive for spawning a tropical system.Yesterday a wave of low pressure over the warm waters of the Caribbean within this ripe atmospheric setting has coalesced to form Tropical Storm Sandy, the eighteenth named tropical system of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of the noon time hour, Sandy is centered approximately 300 miles south of the island nation of Jamaica with a minimum central pressure of 993 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. Its movement is to the NNE ever so slowly at 4 miles per hour, because Sandy is situated in such a favorable environment, it is expected to intensify to perhaps hurricane status before making its first landfall over Jamaica. Due to its broad circulation and slow forward speed, this system will produce copious amounts of rainfall over Jamaica, Cuba, and the impoverished nation of Haiti. This could have a devastating affect as these are fairly mountainous nations and are prone to mudslides and flash flooding. As Sandy progresses to the north it will likely loose strength as its center of circulation passes over the mountains of Cuba before re-emerging over the waters of the Atlantic Ocean over the Bahamas, likely regaining some strength there. Thereafter, the path of this system will pose a challenge as several factors could influence where Sandy goes next. Some computer models have this system staying away from the US mainland as its influenced by a weak subtropical jet stream and takes it out to sea. While others indicate that Sandy will be influenced by a stronger polar jet stream, if this happens there would be two possible scenarios depending on the timing of the jet streams' interaction with Sandy. In the first case scenario, Sandy would begin to interact with the jet stream sooner, this would bring its circulation on a close approach to the east coast of Florida by Friday bringing bands of heavy rain and perhaps tropical forced winds to places like West Palm Beach before it re-curves out to the open waters of the Atlantic. In the second and perhaps worst case scenario, Sandy would begin to interact with the jet stream later moving north past the Bahamas and then accelerate on a bee line up the eastern seaboard targeting anywhere from North Carolina to Maine this weekend. In this worst case scenario, Sandy would be absorbed by a storm system with an associated cold front that will be ridding on the jet stream that will be moving east from the Great Lakes. The phasing of these two system has the potential to wreak havoc on the eastern US from the Midatlantic to New England as well as locations inland from the coast in the Northeast as some models suggest. It is important to note that nothing is set in stone, there is little confidence in the forecast at this time to predict what influence, if any, this system will have on the forecast but it does bear watching.

(Computer Model Uncertainty) 

Just for fun, lets discuss some of the bizarre details that some computer models are predicting this weekend; continuing on the absolute "worst case scenario" as Sandy begins to interact with this other storm system riding on the jet stream, the two storms will phase with one another just off the east coast of the Midatlantic. A swath of heavy precipitation will break out over the Northeast with gale and storm forced winds from Virginia to New England producing tremendous beach erosion and coastal flooding. Once Sandy becomes completely absorbed by the frontal boundary the entire system will become "negatively tilted" pulling an incredible amount of tropical moisture out ahead of it over New England producing torrential rains and flash flooding; while dragging cold air in on the back side producing a swath of heavy wet snow with thunder and lightning over interior sections of the Northeast and Midatlantic especially over the higher elevations of the Appalachians leading to wide spread powers outages for days. The entire system will then lift north into Canada early next week losing strength as it does so. This would be an historic storm if it pans out this way; as bizarre and highly unlikely as it seems, this has happened before during the super storm dubbed "The Perfect Storm" this time back in 1991 when Hurricane Grace phased with a frontal system ridding on the jet stream just off the east coast causing devastation in the Northeast.

(1991 Satellite Imagery Hurricane Grace Pahses with a Frontal System off the Northeast Coast)

NOAA Study: Shifting Winds in the Arctic could have Significant Impact closer to Home

This article is attributed to AccuWeather.com, a great source for weather news, and forecast.

(Negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (higher pressures over the Arctic), which forces cold air farther south into the mid-latitudes)

Higher pressure over the North American continent and Greenland are driving recent changes in the wind patterns across the Arctic, which are impacting sea ice and could bring changes to the weather across North America and Europe, according to a new study that was led by NOAA.

Researchers examined the wind patterns in the subarctic in the early summer between 2007 and 2012 as compared to the average for 1981 to 2010. They discovered that the previously normal west-to-east flowing upper-level winds have been replaced by a more north-south undulating, or wave-like pattern, according to the NOAA news report.

This new wind pattern transports warmer air into the Arctic and pushes Arctic air farther south towards the mid-latitudes, potentially leading to more persistent weather patterns.

Enhanced warming of the Arctic affects the jet stream by slowing its west-to-east winds and by promoting larger north-south meanders in the flow, according to NOAA.

However, predicting those meanders and where the weather associated with them will be located in any given year, however, remains a challenge, according to NOAA.

For example, the previous two winters were very different from one another in North America. There was strong high pressure blocking in the northern latitudes both winters, but the position of these high pressure ridges was very different. Knowing where these blocking highs set up during long periods of the winter is crucial to the forecasts.

The researchers say that with more solar energy going into the Arctic Ocean because of lost ice, there is reason to expect more extreme weather events, such as heavy snowfall, heat waves, and flooding in North America and Europe but these will vary in location, intensity, and timescales. (from NOAA)

As the Arctic warms at twice the global rate, we expect an increased probability of extreme weather events across the temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere, where billions of people live," said Jennifer Francis, Ph.D, of Rutgers. (from NOAA)

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The study, entitled "The Recent Shift in Early Summer Arctic Atmospheric Circulation," was co-authored by scientists from Rutgers University in New Jersey, the University of Sheffield in the United Kingdom, and the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, a partnership of NOAA and the University of Washington.

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 16: Tropical Cyclone Rafael

(Click Image To Enlarge)

As of Tuesday morning Tropical Cyclone Rafael is a category 1 Hurricane over the western Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 90 miles per hour  gusting to 115 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of 971 millibars. Its movement is to the NNE at 24 miles per hour away from the US and is accelerating as it is essentially picked up by the jet stream. Its current trajectory will bring the center of Rafael on a close approach to Bermuda by this evening bringing torrential rains and tropical storm force winds to the island. But just as quickly at it comes in it will go out as its forward speed increases with the influence of the strong October jet stream. By this time tomorrow, Rafael will begin to lose its tropical characteristics becoming extra tropical over the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean where it will remain of maritime interest. Looking ahead, there are indicators of a region of favorable tropical storm development setting up over the western Caribbean as the month of October comes to a close. Some models indicate a region of reduced wind shear aloft over this region and at the same time, a wave of low pressure moving in from central America. With water temperatures in the Caribbean well into the 80s, it is plausible to perceive the notion that if these atmospheric conditions do indeed transpire there could very well be tropical development in this region. Some forecast models have been consistent with the idea of some tropical system developing over the this region by mid next week that could  potentially threaten the US mainland, particularly the state of Florida. At this point, forecast confidence is low. Even though it is much too soon to call, this does bear watching.

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 12: Tropical Storm Patty

(Click Image To Enlarge)

An area of unorganized thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Bahamas associated with a stalled out frontal boundary that has persisted over the past week has coalesced to form a closed circulation at surface levels. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL has dubbed this system Tropical Storm Patty, the 16th named tropical system of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of 12:00 am Friday morning, Patty is centered just north of the Bahamas; it is a fairly weak storm with a minimum central pressure of 1005 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. This system is not expected to further develop, as a strong jet stream will hinder any further strengthening. Tropical Storm Patty is expected to slowly track to the west south west while loosing its convection and becoming an open circulation over the Bahamas, while its thunderstorms gets sheared away by the jet stream. This system will have minor impacts if any for the US, including an elevated risk of rip currents and enhanced thunderstorm activity over southern Florida early next week but that's about it. Statistically, the month of October does produce a shorter secondary peak in tropical storm activity over the Atlantic Ocean, so it is not uncommon to see the tropics ramp up after a lull in activity after the real peak in mid September, however these storms tend to encounter strong wind shear aloft as the jet stream becomes more amplified towards the fall and winter months. Looking ahead, there are indications of another tropical system developing this weekend. A tropical wave to the east of the lesser Antilles will move north into a more favorable region with reduced shear. If it does develop it will be named Rafael, this potential storm system does have the opportunity to become a stronger and more organized storm early next week but will pose no threat to the US. It is expected to be absorbed by the jet stream, loosing its tropical characteristics threatening the island of Bermuda on its northerly track.

Weather Synopsis October 11, 2012

Fall is in the air over the Northeast on this cool October morning as temperatures dipped into the 30s and 40s from the lower Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and New England. A High pressure system over the region is to blame for the chilly temperatures experienced forcing many to crank up the thermostats last night. This area of High Pressure will stick around today providing cool and dry sinking air, promoting mostly sunny conditions across the region. Our next weather maker will arrive on Friday as a cold front will once again sweep the region giving us a reinforcing shot of cold air, producing a wide spread frost for most of the region during the overnight hours on Friday into Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will be stuck in the 40s across interior sections of the Northeast with 50s closer to the Atlantic coast, overnight Lows will be dipping into the 20s and 30s. Along with the cold air, there is a chance of light precipitation during the morning hours across the lower Great Lakes on Friday, though it will feel as if its cold enough for snow, precipitation will likely be a light drizzle or rain shower ending well before Noon. Aside from the cold, Friday will turn out to be a pleasent day weather wise as another area of High Pressure trails in the wake of the cold front. What about the weekend? we can look forward to a nice warm up across the region as the High Pressure system moves off to our east and a southerly flow sets up behind it ushering in a moderating airmass; however we can expect rain and some thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday confined to western and central New York State as a storm system approaches from the west. Looking into next week the forecast calls for warmer tempratures with the possibility of rain for both the begining and the end of the work week, with the greatest chance of precipitation likely at the end of the work week. This weekened would be a great time to head out and experience the brilliant colors of Autumn for us fall enthusiast. Weather conditions have been ripe for nature's aray of colors; the combination of the recent dry spell this summer along with the waves of cold air these past few weeks are making for a spectcular display of fall foliage across the region with many locations approaching peak conditions.

Weather Synopsis October 2nd 2012

Welcome to October; for many it is the best time of the year as temperatures begin to fall, leaves begin to change, and the MLB playoffs gets into high gear. Weather wise, the month is off to a rainy start in the Northeast as a storm system centered over the Tennessee valley is producing unsettled conditions over the region. The chance of precipitation will remain through Wednesday in the Mid Atlantinc and into Thursday  for New England as this area of low pressure lifts north into Canadian terretories. Along with the rain, this system will moderate our temperatures a bit across the Northeast, highs in the upper 60s and 70s can be expected for the remainder of the work week before big changes head our way this weekend. The month of October is known for highly changable weather and big temperature swings over the northern U.S. as we are heading well into the fall season. This week will be no exception, there are already signs of this flux in the forecast as a cold front is piercing through the Nothern Rockies today. This cold front marks the leading edge of colder temperatures and is forcast to invade the Northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday producing the first few inches of snow fall of the season for many folks in the path of this cold air intrusion from Montana, the Dakotas and northern Minesota. This cold airmass will be moderating as it pushes east, but will still remain quite chilly as it approaches the Northeastern U.S. this weekend and early next week, initiating the first frost for much of the interior sections of the region with overnight lows dipping into the 30s and afternoon highs hard pressed to rise above the 50s. Along with the dip in temperatures, this cold front will bring a chilly rain on Saturday from central Pennsylvania through Western New York and Sunday from the Mid Atlantinc on north to New England.