Weather synopsis: December 31

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON, NY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM. Currently in the Bronx the temperature is 30°F with overcast skies and moderate snow falling. Our coastal storm that we've been tracking over the past few weeks now has pulled a fast one on us. The precipitation has developed earlier than expected. As temperatures still haven't had a chance to moderate much a deeper pocket of cold air is in place and has allowed the precipitation to fall as all snow for the majority of the morning. Expect snow accumulations to range between 2.0" across Long Island to 5.0" as you head away from the coast. NYC can end up with 1.0" to 3.0" before this pocket of precipitation moves away. Expect the snow to mix with sleet and some rain later on as we head into the afternoon hours. There will be a lull in the precipitation so we will have a pocket of dry weather for a period today but very light rain and snow showers could return just in time for the ball drop in Time Square. Behind this system we will be left with cold temperatures and gusty winds once again making it feel much colder than the actual thermometer reading. On Saturday and Sunday we will also have some snow flurries develop as this storm intensifies off the New England coast over the Gulf of Main. The bitterly cold air will stick around. This will set the stage for a second round of snow by next week with another potential coastal storm forming though it is too early to tell.

Weather synopsis: December 30

At 11:50am temperatures in the Bronx are in the 20's with partly cloudy skies. What a difference a day makes, yesterday we were talking about the bone chilling cold; in contrast, today its rather pleasant without the wind. High temperatures should climb just above 32°F with clouds on the increase tonight. The top headline has been the potential New Years day Nor'easter, NCEP forecast models have been reorienting the configuration of this coastal storm day by day. Latest model analysis now indicate that our region will escape the brunt of this storm system as the storm sets its sight on norther New England, though we will still fell some impacts as the low travels up the coast. I still expect a rain/snow/sleet scenario beginning around 2pm New Years eve, the precipitation will likely change to plain old rain as temperatures increase slightly through the evening. By Friday, a mixture of rain and sleet will be on tap and should move out by evening. Saturday, colder air moves into the picture as this coastal storm intensifies over the Gulf of Maine an wraps some frigid air temperatures behind it. This might create some scattered snow flurries but the main story will likely be the frigid air and the wind on Saturday. The cold conditions should stick around for the foreseeable future, I find that the best way to combat the cold is to dress in layers, wear a scarf or two, and if anything else make sure to wear a nice warm hat that covers the ears and the face.

Weather synopsis: December 29

At 8:37pm the temperature in the Bronx is 16°F (wind chill -1°F) under chrystal clear skies with gusty winds. Needless to say, today was a cold one to say the least as a cold front ushered in an arctic air mass. This front also whipped up the winds making air temperatures fell much colder. Winds have been reported between 50MPH and 65MPH all over the region. A wind gust of 53MPH has been reported in parts of NYC, in Suffolk county winds were reported up to 61MPH and a gust of 63MPH was reported in Nassau county. Winds should subside tonight but it will remain bitterly cold. Temperatures will be relatively warmer tomorrow but still rather chilly in the 30's. It wont feel nearly as cold as today did as winds should be light and variable. On New Years Eve a coastal storm will develop off the Delmarva peninsula south of Long Island. This Storm system will rapidly intensify as it churns up the North East coast. Latest NCEP forecast model data now indicate that this coastal storm will veer slightly east of my previous projected storm track. This will prove to be a tricky forecast indeed. This eastward jog could yield a snowier scenario for the greater NYC metropolitan area. It now looks as if the precipitation will likely start as a light snow possibly mixing with sleet and rain along the immediate coast around the 2pm hour. This light precipitation will likely subside around 9pm. Temperatures will likely hold steady and increase slightly near the midnight hour so any precipitation that fall at the time of the ball drop will be mostly in the liquid variety. Then as the storm deepens it will likely initiate a rain/snow mix in the early morning on Friday. If enough cold air wraps into the system we could have a period of light to moderate snow with rain and sleet mixing in from time to time on Friday. Across Long Island precipitation will like be mostly rain but here too, snow could be developing if it gets cold enough. By Saturday this storm system will experience an explosive strengthening phase just east of the New England coast as it meanders about over the Gulf of Maine. Parts of northern New England will experience monumental amounts of snow. Even Boston could potentially whind up with significant snow totals. We cant rule out the chance of seeing some snow as far south as NYC and Long Island on Saturday with this intense coastal storm. Only time will tell as to what events will transpire with this New Year storm. Though it is only a few days away, due to the dynamics of this coastal storm it is too early to make a precise forecast.

Update: New Years Day Storm

At 9pm the temperature in the Bronx is 30°F under partly cloudy skies with gusty winds. Here is the latest analysis of the potential impact from the projected New Years Day coastal storm. Precipitation will likely start as snow initially in time for the Ball Drop in Time Square across coastal regions including NYC and Long Island before warm Atlantic air wraps around the storm to produce a mix with rain then eventually change to all rain by early Friday morning. NCEP forecast models are indicating that cold air will wrap back around the storm system at some point in time between Friday late afternoon and early Saturday morning, we could see the rain mix with snow and sleet then change back to all snow at some point in time. This is a preliminary analysis of a scenario that is still days away and any change in the storm orientation and projected track can have a big impact on this forecast.

Weather synopsis: December 28

At 11am the temperature in the Bronx is 38°F with clearing skies. An Upper level Low pressure system has produced some light precipitation this morning, mostly in the form of rain as temperatures were above freezing. This system will feature an associated cold front that will sweep the region today, so don't expect the mild conditions we've enjoyed yesterday to continue today. In fact, temperatures will likely be falling steadily through the day. Low temperatures tonight should bottom out in the upper teens to lower twenties. The departing upper-level Low combined with a High pressure system in its wake will create a tight pressure gradient developing breezy conditions today and tomorrow making it feel much colder than the actual air temperature. Winds will be steady at 25-35MPH with higher gusts. Looking ahead, NCEP forecast models have been indicating a coastal storm developing potentially near the New Year holiday. The exact track and intensity of this system is rather uncertain at this time, as is the case with many North Eastern winter storms, if this storm veers just 50 miles to the east or west of the projected storm track it can mean the difference between a classic Nor'easter with snow and wind or a cold rain on January 1st. The storm track will determine the exact position of the 32° line. At this point in time it is too early to make a precise forecast of how this coastal storm will transpire, however it is likely that we will have a coastal storm brewing on New Years day. As of current forecast model analysis, the precipitation should hold off until after the Ball Drop in Time Square but it will be cold nevertheless so bundle up.

Weather synopsis: December 27

At noon the temperature in the Bronx is 45°F with chrystal clear skies, expecting a high around 50°F. The storm system responsible for last night's rain has moved out of the region. In its wake we are left with very mild temperatures and fair weather, however this will be short lived. An upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes associated with the same departing storm will move through the Northeast. Precipitation wise, this system should have enough instability to produce some light snow with little accumulations on Monday and early Tuesday as it drags a sharp cold front. The main feature with this storm will be gusty winds and then a sharp temperature drop. Temperatures will drop by some 15° to 25° by Tuesday. This will set the stage for a potential significant snow storm likely around the New Year holiday. Though it is still too early to make a precise forecast, over the past weeks NCEP forecast models have been more inclined towards a rather impressive coastal storm developing with a 1,2 punch to the region. The first round is likely on January 1st or 3rd with round two likely January 8th or so. NCEP forecast models indicate temperatures cold enough for frozen precipitation for the most part. Both scenarios have the potential to produce significant snow respectively. I want to reiterate however that this is still days away and it is too early to call any shots. Weather is very dynamic especially this time of year and it is difficult to accurately forecast a storm of this magnitude this far in advance.

Weather synopsis: December 24

9pm the temperature in the Bronx is 30°F with a clear sky. Temperatures were above freezing today and we had some melting of the snow pack. As temperatures fall below freezing tonight patches of ice may develop creating some hazardous driving conditions. Tomorrow expect increasing clouds as a storm system approaches. This is the same storm that is wreaking havoc in the Great Plains. Ahead of this storm an influx of warm air should keep precipitation primarily in the form of rain especially along the coast. This rain combined with temperatures above 40°F on Christmas and Saturday will yield melting of the snow pack. This combination will create flooding especially in poor drainage areas. On Monday yet another system will approach the Northeast. This system will drag a sharp cold front that will whip up the winds as well as usher in an arctic air mass. Precipitation should be light and if its cold enough it will fall in the form of snow or a wintry mix. Temperatures behind the front will drop dramatically by some 10° to 20°, and it should remain fairly cold through New Years day. NCEP forecast models are still exhibiting indications of a potential coastal storm developing on or near the New Year holiday, however this scenario is still several days away and its too early to tell what will transpire.

Weather synopsis: December 21-25

Today is the winter solstice, first official day of the winter season. Today the sun is angled in a manner where we receive the least amount of daylight making today the darkest day of the the year. The weather around the tri-state will remain fairly tranquil for the coming days. Temperatures will stay chilly right through Christmas, but we will receive a good deal of sunshine. A storm system is getting ready to track across the country this week and should arrive here just in time for Christmas. This will likely have major impacts on travel . This storm will produce heavy rain up and down the Pacific coast. Inland, heavy mountain snow will be likely. As the storm progresses eastward it will morph in to a major winter storm. By the time this system reaches the east coast it will likely have enough warm air to produce some Icing inland and heavy rainfall along the Atlantic shore from Florida to Mane. Looking far ahead, NCEP forecast models are hinting towards a possible Nor'Easter around New Years day, there is still ample time to track this scenario and its still too early to tell if it will even develop.

Weather synopsis: December 20

Currently in the Bronx, the temperature is 33°F with breaks of sunshine. The Blizzard of 2009 has hammered the area with heavy snow. The highest snow measurements reported came from the National Weather Service in Upton,NY on Long Island recording 26.3" with NYC reporting up to 14.5". Generally, snow totals ranged between 4.0" northwest of NYC, to 1 foot in NYC, and over 2 feet across Long Island. This was a powdery type of snow so we did have white-out conditions all through the night. Looking ahead we can expect to enjoy sunshine for the coming days, nevertheless it will be fairly chilly with highs ranging between 30° and 35°. The next chance of precipitation will arrive just in time for the Christmas holiday. This time the air will be warmer and rain will fall.

Weather synopsis: December 19

A WINTER STORM WARNING AND A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON, NY HAS ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST UP THROUGH THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING NYC AND LONG ISLAND. Currently in the Bronx, the temperature is 30°F with an overcast sky and snow. The snow developed around 1pm and is picking up in intensity. The storm system responsible for the snow is now churning up the coast and intensifying as time progresses. This storm has already been an over achiever producing 2 feet of snow in the Baltimore/Washington D.C. region. The minimal central pressure of this Nor'easter is deepening, we are dealing with a stronger storm than was anticipated. I now expect snow totals in the Five Boroughs and into Long Island to be between 1 to 2 feet by tomorrow. With the storm system intensifying we will also see the winds associated with this Nor'easter to be stronger especially across Long Island. Winds have the potential to gust over 60 MPH and perhaps approaching hurricane force as the peak of this storm. This Blizzard will likely rank in the top 10 in the record books. The storm quickly move out by noon tomorrow. Expect cold temperatures to linger as an arctic air mass continues its influence in the Northeast. The next chance of precipitation will come on Christmas Day. At the moment, NCEP forecast models are calling for a rain/snow scenario but we are still days away.

Weather synopsis: December 18

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON, NY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING AND A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA FROM NOONTIME SATURDAY TO NOONTIME SUNDAY. Currently in the Bronx the temperature is 26°F with light winds and clear skies. This is the calm before the storm. A strong coastal storm will be churning off the waters of the Southeast coast. This system will rapidly intensify into a full blown Nor'easter. The storm will track along the coast and produce very heavy snow for the entire megaplex from Virginia to Mane. Total accumulations for the New York metropolitan area will be at least 1 foot of snow. Along with the heavy snow, the deep low pressure system will create a tight pressure gradient resulting in very strong winds. Winds will gust up and over 50 MPH. This combination of snow and wind will create a bona-fied Blizzard, the first real Nor'easter of the season.

Weather synopsis: December 16

19°F In Buffalo, NY under a broken sky with light snow showers. Lake-Effect snow is falling off the warm lake waters. Fortunately for Buffalo any snow that falls today will not amount to much. However, folks in Syracuse, NY will have a greater influence from Lake Ontario and will pick up 6.0" of snow or more by tomorrow. It will remain bitterly cold for the coming days. The next real chance of an accumulating snow will arrive in the Northeast just in time for Christmas as NCEP forecast models are indicating a storm system developing off the coast around that time frame.

Weather synopsis: December 15

32°F in Buffalo, NY under an overcast sky with snow falling. The snow is due to a weak storm system passing by creating some Lake-Enhanced snow off the lakes. Expect general accumulations in the greater Buffalo metro to be less than 3". The snow bands off Lake Ontario will produce more impressive amounts from Rochester to Syracuse where up to 10" of snow can accumulate within the most persistent snow bands. A cold front has swept the region and is responsible for the cold weather we will be experiencing through the upcoming days in the Northeast. It looks like we will have an active weather pattern once again after this weekend with several chances of snow. A white Christmas is becoming more likely for the Northeast.

Weather synopsis: December 14

43°F in Buffalo, NY under cloudy skies. Rain is overspreading the area with the approach of a weak storm system. Temperatures will tumble as a cold front associated with that storm system ushers in a shot of cold temperatures. We will be running some 10° below the average. As the temperatures tumble tomorrow, the precipitation will mix with and then change over to snow by the evening hours. Accumulations will range between 0.5" to 3.0" across the Buffalo/Niagara Frontier.

Weather synopsis: December 12

Currently in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 28°F under mostly cloudy skies. Lows tonight will be in the mid to uppper 20s. Cloud coverage will increase as a weak storm system approaches. This system will produce a light mix of precipitation for Sunday. Relatively warm temperatures will spread the region from Sunday through Tuesday before another arctic airmass moves in.

Weather synopsis: December 11

Currently in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 21°F under mostly sunny skies with breezy conditions. The Lake-Effect snow band has drifted south of the Buffalo/Niagara region. This snow band will continue producing blizzard conditions for the south towns of western New York. Tonight, the snow band will drift back into the Buffalo region, producing and additional 1.0" to 2.0" before winding down on Saturday morning. General snow accumulations have ranged between 6.0" to 12.0" from Buffalo northward and 12.0" to 24.0" from Buffalo southward. Some localized areas picked up nearly 3 feet of snow. Along with the snow, temperatures are running between 10° and 20° below the average for this time of the year. Looking ahead, we do ave some moderation in temperature forcast for Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures will range from 35°F to 40°F with a chance of rain and snow showers. NCEP forecast models are indicating yet another shot of cold arctic air by mid-next week along with additional chances for snow for the Great Lakes and Northeast.

Weather synopsis: December 9

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING, A LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WARNING AND A LAKE-SHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALSO ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UNTIL 3:30 PM. Currently in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 46°F with severe thunderstorms. A dynamic storm system is plowing through the region producing severe thunderstorms capable of producing penny size hail and dangerous lightning. This same powerful storm system is winding up over the Great Lakes. Ahead of the storm a surge of warm air will keep the precipitation in the form of rain with heavy rain falling over southern New England including New York City and Long Island. Snow is falling over northern New England and areas east of Lake Ontario. Behind the storm, much colder air will keep the precipitation in the form of snow over the western Great Lakes. Winds will be on the increase as this storm progresses northeast ward. Winds will be sustained at 30-40 MPH gusting up and over 60 MPH off Lake Erie producing flooding along the eastern shores. Along with strong winds, the coldest temperatures of the season will infiltrate the Great Lakes and Northeast throughout the day today. The combination of strong winds and cold air over Lake Erie will set the stage for a significant Lake-Effect snow event particularly for the immediate south towns of Buffalo. Snowfall amounts will be around 5.0" to 11.0" from Buffalo northward. However, heavier amounts for a narrow region just south of the city of Buffalo where snowfall rates of 2" per hour will develop. Snow accumulations of 12.0" to 24.0" are likely with locally heavier amounts. Along with the snow, winds will be howling and Blizzard conditions will develop as the wind whips up the snow that has fallen dropping the visibilities to near whiteout conditions. In addition, strong winds combined with a cold arctic air mass will make temperatures feel much colder. Windchill advisories may be posted as windchill values drop to near 0°F. The snow showers will linger through Friday but the cold air will stay in place. This cold air infiltration will produce additional chances of snow for days to come for the Northeast and Great Lakes.

Weather synopsis: December 8

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A LAKE-SHORE FOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THOUGH THURSDAY. Currently in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 31°F under partly cloudy skies. A powerful winter storm over the Central Plains is charging northeast ward. This system has produced tornadic thunderstorms and flooding rains across the South from Texas through Florida and northward on the warm side of the storm as well as significant snow along with blizzard conditions for much of the nation from the San Francisco Bay area of California to the western Great Lakes on the cold side. The storm is making its way into the Northeast. Ahead of the storm winds will range between 15 and 20 MPH. In the wake of this system winds will really crank up. From Wednesday night through Thursday winds will be sustained at 35 to 40 MPH with gusts up and over 60 MPH. This will set the stage for flooding along Lake Erie's eastern shores with a water rise of 9 feet above the water datum. Along with the strong winds, very cold air will take precedence as a sharp cold front will move in significantly dropping the temperatures Wednesday evening. Cold temperatures combined with strong winds will drop windchill values considerably, I expect windchill advisories to be issued. Precipitation wise, this system will initially produce a mix of heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain for the immediate Buffalo metropolitan area tonight through Wednesday morning before warm air off the Atlantic changes the precipitation briefly to rain by late morning. Wednesday evening as the storm pulls away, Lake-Effect Snow will develop. Some areas could be measuring snow in feet. Lake-Effect Snow will develop over the Niagara frontier then settle over the south towns of Buffalo where the highest snow fall amounts are likely. Along with the heavy snow, winds will be howling and blizzard conditions will be common. I expect blizzard advisories to be issued some time between Wednesday evening and Friday.

Weather synopsis: December 7

Currently in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 30°F with overcast skies. A weak storm system will be dominating our weather for today. This storm is producing clouds and snow showers for much of the Northeast. This system could produce some snow for the area on the order of 0.1" to 0.5" by evening. Looking ahead, NCEP forecast models are indicating a potential significant storm system to develop and affect the Great Lakes as well as the Northeast with snow, ice and strong winds this week. I expect this system to initially produce and icy mix of snow, freezing rain and sleet for Buffalo on Wednesday. Then moderating temperatures will change the precipitation to rain for a brief period. By Wednesday evening cold air will move back in to the picture and change the precipitation to snow once again. It is still early so there is uncertainty as to the affects of this storm system but we can end up with several inches of snow. This system will also produce strong winds coupled with significant snow creating the scenario for blizzard conditions. By Thursday the system will pull way, in the wake of this storm very strong winds will take precedence setting up the stage for Lake-Effect snow. Some areas will pick up quite a lot of Lake-Effect snow on top of what ever snow this system produces. Finally, cold arctic air will stay in place for the next several days allowing the snow to stick around for a while as this cold and snowy weather pattern persists.

Weather synopsis: December 5

Currently in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 33°F with overcast skies. An area of low pressure off the Carolina coast churning up the eastern seaboard is producing precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic and much of the Northeast. This system produced snow in the South and is creating the overcast skies here in Buffalo. The system is overriding a cold air mass that has been in place over much of the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48. This will produce the first snowfall of the season for the mega-plex from Boston, MA down to Washington D.C. Areas along the immediate coast will see rain changing to snow before the system pulls away. There will be a wide area of snow accumulating 1.0"-2.0" by days end with a narrow strip of 3.0"-6.0" that includes the big cities of the Northeast. Here in Buffalo, the cold arctic air will continue in the days to come. With an active weather pattern associated with El Niño and cold air in place I expect to see frequent snow in the forecast with increased chances of big snows for the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The next chance of snow in Buffalo will come this Monday. A weak system will move into the picture. With the warm lake waters, Lake-enhanced snow is likely. This scenario will likely repeat itself so expect a progressively snowy weather pattern going froward.

Weather synopsis: December 4

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WARNING/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. Currently in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 30°F with mostly cloudy skies. Looking outside I can see the lake-effect snow band to the north of the Buffalo State College region. This band of snow will meander about throughout the day. It will move south again later this after noon over Buffalo. I still expect snow accumulations in the most persistent snow band to be around 8.0" to 12.0" by midnight tonight. Thus far, general accumulations have been reported between 2.0" and 4.0" with in the Greater Buffalo/Niagara metro area. The Snow band will remain over northern Erie and Niagara counties and should produce an additional 6.0" to 8.0" before dissipating later this evening and tonight around midnight. Other areas in western New York south and east of Buffalo will have total accumulations between 2.0" and 6.0" by midnight tonight. Looking ahead, the cold air will linger for the up coming week. This will set the stage for additional chances of Lake-Effect snows.

Weather synopsis: December 3

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. Currently in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 36°F under partly cloudy skies. The low pressure system that produced rain yesterday has pulled away from the region. In its wake, winds will develop off of Lake Erie that will produce a band of heavy lake-effect snow over the Niagara Frontier. This will be a persistent snow band. By Friday night I expect snow accumulations on the order of 6.0" to 10.0" for a localized area that includes the city of Buffalo. Flurries will linger Saturday and Sunday and temperatures will remain cold. Lake-Effect snow will likely develop next week, I'll monitor the situation for further developments

Weahter synopsis: December 2

Currently in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 42°F with overcast skies. A southerly wind flow today will allow temperatures to moderate to the lower 50's. Along with this southerly flow a wave of precipitation will spread across the Northeast. We will likely see heavy rainfall associated with this system. This area of low pressure will produce flooding rain and severe weather for the Southeast. As it churns northward, it will encounter some cold arctic air on Thursday. At the moment NCEP forecast models agree that the arctic air will hold off till Thursday evening. This means that the heaviest precipitation will fall in the liquid variety. I expect rain to develop this afternoon and continue throughout the day on Thursday. Around the 4pm hour on Thursday I think enough cold air will be in place to cause the rain to mix with snow and sleet before the storm moves out of the picture. In the wake of this storm after midnight, a Lake-effect snow band will develop and produce wide spread snow for much of western and upstate New York down wind of the Great Lakes.

Weather synopsis: December 1

38°F at the moment in Buffalo, NY with clear skies. Today marked the first official lake-effect snow event of the season for much of Western New York. In the wake of a strong storm system a wind developed off lakes Erie and Ontario. The band that developed off lake Erie produced an accumulating snow event for the greater Buffalo metropolitan area. In Buffalo, just over 5" of snow was recorded. General snow accumulations ranged between 2.0" and 6.0" however the immediate lake Erie shore recorded less amounts due to a mix with rain. The snow that did fall melted rather quickly as temperatures climbed well above the freezing mark. Tomorrow I expect warm conditions to prevail with high temperatures reaching 50°F. After the noon hour we'll see increasing clouds ahead of the next system. Some rain showers will develop late. Thursday the situation starts to get interesting. Depending on the depth of cold air, there is a potential for a rather impressive winter storm/lake-enhanced snow event. A storm system that is currently brewing in the Gulf of Mexico will bring flooding rains to the Gulf coast from Texas to the Florida panhandle where sever thunderstorms are also likely. Once the system develops it will sweep north ward. Depending on the timing of a cold air intrusion, this system could produce a decent amount of lake-enhanced snow for Western New York. By Friday the storm will pull north in to Canada. In the wake of the storm a strong cold wind is expected to develop producing heavy lake-effect snow.

Weather synopsis: November 30

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE GREATER BUFFALO METROPOLITAN AREA. The temperature has been holding steady at 38° since about midnight last night and I am expecting the mercury to tumble as we progress through the day. A storm system moved in through the area last night that produced rain. In the wake of that storm an Arctic air mass is taking its place setting up the scenario for a potential Lake Effect snow event for much of Erie County including the greater Buffalo metro area. Tonight temperatures will drop below the freezing point and a wind will develop off of lake Erie. This will cause a lake-effect snow band to develop right over the city of Buffalo and northern Erie counties. This snow band has the potential to produce snowfall rates of 0.5" to 2.0" per hour. I expect this snow band to stick around over Buffalo long enough to produce a wet snow fall on the order of 2" to as much as 6". This snow band will have enough convection to work with to produce thunder and lightning. After the early morning hours the snow squall will drift south after 7:00 AM. Tomorrow, high temperatures will climb above freezing to around 39°F so the snow that does fall should begin to melt rather quickly. With this Arctic intrusion, there is yet another potential for a lake-effect/ lake-enhanced snow event Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be at or below average so precipitation will likely fall mostly as snow.

Weahter synonpsis: November 20

49°F in Buffalo, NY with fair skies and breezy conditions. The storm system that produced rain fall yesterday has finally pulled out of the region, in its wake we saw a lake effect rain band develop across the south towns of Buffalo. That lake effect band has since dissipated and we are left with pleasant but breezy conditions. Expect a return to average in terms of temperature for this up coming week as a pattern change in the jet stream makes for a more zonal flow across the lower 48. Precipitation wise, we will see a chance of some unsettled conditions on Monday and then again by Wednesday and Thursday where some snow will mix in with the rain expected.

Weather synopsis: November 19

51°F right now in Buffalo, NY with overcast skies and rain falling in the area. Above average temperatures have taken over this November. Temperatures are runing 5-10° above the norm for the month sofar. NCEP forecast models indicate a return to more seasonal conditions by Thanksgiving and possible snow fall for the end of the month for the Northeast, I'll montor that and keep updating the forecast as time progresses. Today the area is being affected by the same low pressure system that produced snow for Kansas and parts of the central plains. Here the precipitation will fall as rain although we may get a brief period of sleet mixing in very early on Friday. Once this system exits the region, cooler air intrude the area although it wont be terrably cold, only expecting a return to more seasonable conditions.

Weather synopsis for October 29, 2009

Its 50°F with overcast skies in Buffalo, NY just before the noon hour. Today a high temperature of 52°F is forecast ed. Another gray day in the Queen City with low-level cloud cover over much of the Northeast. Well game 1 of the World Series turned out to be a tad rainy with showers for the beginning of the game, lets all hope the Yankees come back tonight in game 2. The forecast for the Bronx tonight is looking good, at game time temperatures will be on the cool side into the lower 50s with partly cloudy skies. A warm day is in store for buffalo for Friday with highs reaching the middle 60s. Also expect increasing clouds through the day tomorrow with the approach of the next storm system. Friday night could be on the unsettled side with a chance for rain showers. The heaviest rain will arrive by Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will fall to a more seasonable range for this time of year after this weekend so we can kiss the 60s goodbye.

Weahter synonpsis and summary updated Octeber 28th

At 12:16pm the temperature in Buffalo, NY is 52°F with overcast skies and some light drizzle. It has been a fairly inactive 2 weeks of weather here in Buffalo. We did receive some snow showers on the 16th of October however a temperature moderation warmed us back to slightly above average temperatures we also experienced a storm system that brought strong winds and heavy rains to the region from the 22nd to the 24th. The last three days have produced spectacular weather, temperatures ranged between 58°F and 65°F with generally clear skies and calm winds. Today we are under the influence of a weak storm system that did produce some precipitation which has now moved on out. The forecast for game 1 of the World Series in New York looks good. The storm system that is producing rain in the Bronx will continue to move away and fair weather can be expected for the World Series. Expect unsettled weather this weekend with rain and gray skies. After this weekend its back to reality, temperatures will take a tumble to a more seasonable chill ranging in the 40s and 50s. Some NCEP forecast models are hinting toward a light snow event possible next week with the passage a clipper system from the Alberta province of Canada. It may be too early to tell but winter weather is in the forecast.

Weather synopsis for October 16, 2009

At 12:30pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 42°F with overcast skies. A rain/snow mix fell overnight in Buffalo which didn't amount to much. Locations across the Southern tier picked up some 4" and some higher elevated areas in PA. picked up close to 12". Tonight, lows will be in the low to mid 30s in Buffalo but colder away from the shores of Erie. The next round of coastal storms will be taking shape and producing more heavy snow for the mountains of the Northeast, great news for ski resorts. Heavy rain will continue for locations along the Northeast coast, and once more some of the moisture associated with this coastal low will reach us here in Western New York giving us a chance of some light rain that will mix with wet snow late. NCEP forecast models indicate a warm up for the Northeast in the coming week.

Weather synopsis for October 15, 2009

At 12:50pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 39°F with overcast skies. Today we'll have rain showers move in to the region as a coastal low winds-up off the Northeastern seaboard. Tonight we will see light rain showers mixing with wet snow from time to time, low temperatures will hover just above the freezing mark. Locations along the coast will be hit by a double round of coastal storms. These storm will bring heavy rain and wind to places like New York City and Boston and heavy snow for the interior. Some of the more elevated regions will see as much as one foot of snow. Locally, expect a chance of more rain/snow mix for Friday and Saturday and improving conditions for Sunday. Next week we are likely to warm up to more typical temperatures for this time of the year as highs will rebound to the 50s.

Weather synopsis for October 14, 2009

At 12:30pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 39°F with overcast skies. Today, we will reach a high temperature of 45°F with gray skies hanging around. Lows tonight will dip below freezing again and clouds will remain in the area. There is an area of low pressure over the South producing heavy rainfall across the gulf states. The moisture associated with this storm system extends north to the Ohio River valley. As this moisture progresses eastward, it should pass to our south but will produce gray skies through the weekend. Initially my forecast for the remainder of the week indicated fair and cool weather for Buffalo, now computer models are reconfiguring a coastal storm that now has the potential to produce unsettled conditions. A chance of precipitation is now likely from Thursday night onward to through this weekend. The bulk of the moisture from this developing coastal storm will remain east of Western New York, however we could have precipitation make its way into the region. Due to the recent cold temperatures the atmosphere is likely to be cold enough to support a mixture of wet snow and rain here into Friday evening. In the higher elevations of the Northeast, this coastal storm has the potential to produce heavy wet snow, with trees still foliated we can expect dangerous conditions with fallen trees and slushy roads. This Nor'easter will pack some strong gusty winds and heavy precipitation along the coast posing a threat to the scheduled game 1 of the American League Championship Series in the Bronx versus the Angels from Anaheim.

Global Cooling?

Prelude

As many might already be aware, the warmest average global temperature on record was observed in the year 1998. Since then the global mean has remained below that record high. This is perplexing to say the least to scientist who have been predicting an increase in global temperatures for the coming decades, furthermore this has fueled debates against global warming and human influence on the Earth's climate.

From my point of view, despite the fact that we did not observe 1998 warmth this past decade global warming is a very real phenomenon and must be monitored. This past decade temperatures were generally above the global mean. The 12 year period from 1997-2008 the top ten warmest years were observed. Scientist speculate that temperature trends occur in 30 year cycles and that we are on the way to a cooler period for the next 30 years. The temperature trend for the past 30 years have indicated a warmer incline of temperatures, however the 30 year period from the 1940s to the 1970s is indicative of a cooler pattern. Never the less, when the entire spectrum is taken into perspective there is no argument, the overall global temperature trend has been a positive inclination. Our planet experiences changes in cycles so it is possible that for the next 30 year cycle temperatures globally might plateau or even cool down.

Global Cooling

2009 was dubbed "the year with out a summer," most of the U.S. has experienced the coldest summer in 30 years. Could this be a sign of things to come? Scientist say yes. Along with the 30 year temperature cycle, the current ENSO or the El Niño Southern Oscillation is believed to have a effect on our weather. During a typical weak El Niño, the Atlantic Hurricane Season tends to be less active. So far, Hurricane Season 2009 has been the least active of the decade. Cold and snowy conditions are more likely to occur during the North American winters during a weak El Niño. Scientist believe the cool trend of this past summer is likely to continue. If this is correct we could end up having the coldest winter season since the 1970s in 2009-2010 winter season.Along with a weak El Niño, scientist debate whether our Sun has also played a role in recent temperature variations. Some scientist argue that the Sun has not had any significant effect on global warming. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity" argues Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University. A research conducted by the Royal Society concluded that solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years do not correlate with graphs for global average surface temperatures.

But recent solar activity is speculated to have influenced global temperatures. Currently we are in a period in the 11 year solar cycle with the least sunspots on the surface of the Sun. This is known as Solar Minimum. The current solar minimum has been on going longer than average and is resulting in an extended solar cycle. Many scientist have noticed a relationship between an extended solar cycle and a decrease in global temperatures. Australian geologist David Archibald has confirmed this relationship, and also found that for every one year increase in solar cycle length there is a 0.5 degree Celsius decline in surface air temperature during the following cycle. NASA predicts the current solar cycle, dubbed cycle number 23 will be 13 years in length. If Archibald's calculations are correct there is likely to be a 1.0°C to 1.5°C drop in global temperatures over the next solar cycle. This is significant because cooling of this magnitude would be greater than the 0.6°C warming observed in the 20th century. A drop in temperature by just 1.0°C can have a big effect in global climate.If we look back in history to the last time an extended solar cycle was observed we would have to go back to "the Little Ice-age" which began with solar cycle number 4 which lasted 13.6 years. During the Little Ice-age, a global temperature drop of 1.0°C to 1.5°C was observed. During this period in the winter of 1780 New York Harbor actually froze over allowing New Yorkers to walk from Manhattan Island to Staten Island! Extreme cold was common in the northern hemisphere which led to crop faliure for much of Europe.

Weather synopsis for October 13, 2009

At 3:00pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 49°F with a mixture of sunshine and clouds. Tonight we may get some sprits of light rain showers possibly mixing with wet flurries, lows will hover just above the freezing point. It is feeling like fall as our temperatures have taken a tumble. This week we will be blanketed by a cold air mass that will keep temperatures some 10°F-20°F below the average. Low temperatures for the remainder of the week will fall below freezing, it is officially the end of the growing season. Despite the cold temperatures we will have a good stretch of fair weather and sunshine for the region with the exception of regions along the Atlantic coast. A coastal storm takes shape this week producing unsettled conditions along the shores from the Delmarva peninsula to New England which could cause problems in the Bronx for game 1 of the American League Championship Series in Yankee Stadium. Here in western New York however fair weather will prevail, and its forecast to stick around through this weekend before we begging adding precipitation back into the lingo.

Weather synopsis for October 10, 2009

At 7:30pm in Bronx County, NY the temperature is 58°F under mostly cloudy skies. Buffalo, NY is reporting a temperature of 52°F with partly cloudy skies. Tonight's lows in the Bronx and Buffalo will drop to the middle 40s and upper 30s respectively. On a drive from Buffalo, NY to the Bronx yesterday October 9, 2009, road conditions were treacherous to say the least. I encountered blinding rainfall all in association with a strong low pressure system which has cleared the Northeast region. This storm system produced flooding rainfall along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. In the wake of this system a cold air mass is moving southward from Canada in to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Frost and Freeze avdisories have been issused all troughout the upstate. Next week we can expect well below average temperatures and even some rain/snow mix in to interior sections of the Northeast and in the higher elevated valleys of the Adirondacks and in to the Allegheny Plateau.

Weather synopsis for October 8, 2009

At 1:00pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 60°F under generally sunny, but partly cloudy skies. The winds have subsided from yesterday, currently blowing from the south at 5MPH to 10MPh. We've had some impressive wind gusts reported yesterday, Dunkirk and Buffalo reported a peak gust of 62MPH yesterday morning, a wind gust of 48MPH and 45MPH were reported in Lancaster and Clarence respectively. At Buffalo State College I noticed some damage to some trees with big tree branches being knocked down by the wind in isolated areas. That storm system has moved the east off the coast of New England and Nova Scotia. Today we find ourselves once more wedged in between systems as the next storm makes a Beeline towards Buffalo. Tonight increasing and thickening clouds ahead of the next weather maker, low temperatures will hover around the 50°F mark. Friday, the rain will move in by the morning hours and it will be heavy at times. It will be out of the picture just in time for the weekend. Fair weather this weekend is expected, but cold temperatures will prevail. By the start of the work week we will have another round of precipitation, and temperatures might be just cold enough to support a mixture of rain and snow with cold temperatures sticking around through early next week.

Weather synopsis for October 7, 2009

At 12:15pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 50°F with overcast skies and gusty winds. There is a wind advisory which is in effect through this evening. Last night a cold front swept through the region producing rain and gusty winds. Today, the upper-level low pressure feature associated with last nights cold front has formed a tight pressure gradient with a high pressure system in the Midwest creating the strong winds were experiencing. Winds are sustained at 25-40MPH and gusting to over 50MPH. Tonight, winds will subside and showers will linger. Lows will drop in to the lower to middle 40s. Thursday will bring beautiful weather with ample sunshine, light winds and mild temperatures, highs are forecast to reach 64°F. Rain will return by Friday however as the next storm system moves in. The weekend appears to produce fair but cool weather, with cold temperatures hanging around through early next week.

Weather synopsis for October 6, 2009

At 5:00pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 61°F with increasing clouds. Today was a superb day weather wise. Our temperatures warmed to the lower 60's and our skies where mostly sunny for a good chunk of the day. The fair weather conditions however wont last long as the next storm system is already making its way on in. Tonight's lows will bottom out to around 50°F and clouds will be thickening as rains breaks out all across western New York State. Expect rain; which could be heavy at times, to fall through the night and into Wednesday. Winds will also be a factor with the approach of the low pressure system from our west creating a tight pressure gradient with a high pressure system to the south and east of Buffalo. The winds will begin to increase as the cold front associated with the low pressure system has passed through the area late tonight. Winds will be on the order of 25-35MPH with wind gust potentially over 40MPH. The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for northern Erie county from late tonight through Wednesday evening. Looking ahead at what else is in store this week we will find additional chances of rain. Thursday will be another fair weather day but by Friday more rain will infiltrate the region. Also expect well below average temperatures for this weekend and it looks like the cold will stick around at least through early next week.

Fall Foliage Update

Mother nature is exhibiting her Autumn best as we progress in to the season. As of October first, the foliage of the tress across the northern tier of the nation and into the Rocky Mountains has been nearing peak conditions. In some instances where the temperatures have been freezing cold we have passed our peaks, so looking like winter in to the Rockies and parts of extreme northern New England with trees already bear and snow on the ground. Locally, we are seeing patchy foliage spread to the coasts of southern New England and Long Island as well as the Appalachian Mountains.

Weather synopsis for October 5, 2009

At 1:50pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 57°F under mostly cloudy skies. The upper-level low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather this past weekend has moved northward in to Canadian provinces and is being replaced by a high pressure system over the upper Midwest, this means that our weather will be improving. Today expect some peaks of sunshine through the clouds. Tonight's lows will drop between 37°F and 45°F with clearing conditions. A much better day is in store tomorrow with the return of sunshine and moderating temperatures. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower to middle 60's. But the fair weather wont last long as we have another system that will be approaching from the west bringing with it rain, wind and chilly temperatures by hump day on Wednesday. A sneak peak at the up coming weekend looks promising for fair weather but temperatures are playing out to be below average.

Weather synopsis for October 4, 2009

At 6:30pm the temperature in Buffalo, NY is 53°F under mostly cloudy skies. Rain is falling in the area, all associated with an upper-level low over the northern Great Lakes. This system has dominated our weather all weekend long producing heavy lake-enhanced showers. Last night I recall standing outside and being absolutely drenched by a heavy downpour. Tonight, lows will dip down into the 40's with on and off rain. Monday is shaping up to be a nice day weather wise despite the light breezy conditions. Expect to encounter sunshine with passing clouds, high temperatures will reach the 60°F mark.

Weather synopsis for October 3, 2009

At 5:20pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 63°F with overcast skies. We've been experiencing on and off thundershowers as an upper-level low pressure system meanders about over the Great Lakes. Most of these pockets of precipitation are being enhanced by Lake Erie producing heavier rain from time to time. Rain will continue through Sunday with isolated thunderstorms possible by convection from lake-enhanced precipitation. Low temperatures tonight will be in the middle to upper 40's. NCEP forecast models indicate additional chances of rain for the majority of this up coming week.

Weather synopsis for October 2, 2009

At 9:40pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 55°F under mostly cloudy skies. An upper-level low pressure system is moving toward the east over the Western New York region. Ahead of the low there is an associated frontal boundary that has produced a solid shield of rain for the day. As the systems continues eastward the upper-level feature will also produce some rain showers for the remainder of the weekend. Tonight's lows will range between 45°F and 51°F.