THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE GREATER BUFFALO METROPOLITAN AREA. The temperature has been holding steady at 38° since about midnight last night and I am expecting the mercury to tumble as we progress through the day. A storm system moved in through the area last night that produced rain. In the wake of that storm an Arctic air mass is taking its place setting up the scenario for a potential Lake Effect snow event for much of Erie County including the greater Buffalo metro area. Tonight temperatures will drop below the freezing point and a wind will develop off of lake Erie. This will cause a lake-effect snow band to develop right over the city of Buffalo and northern Erie counties. This snow band has the potential to produce snowfall rates of 0.5" to 2.0" per hour. I expect this snow band to stick around over Buffalo long enough to produce a wet snow fall on the order of 2" to as much as 6". This snow band will have enough convection to work with to produce thunder and lightning. After the early morning hours the snow squall will drift south after 7:00 AM. Tomorrow, high temperatures will climb above freezing to around 39°F so the snow that does fall should begin to melt rather quickly. With this Arctic intrusion, there is yet another potential for a lake-effect/ lake-enhanced snow event Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be at or below average so precipitation will likely fall mostly as snow.
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