Currently in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 42°F with overcast skies. A southerly wind flow today will allow temperatures to moderate to the lower 50's. Along with this southerly flow a wave of precipitation will spread across the Northeast. We will likely see heavy rainfall associated with this system. This area of low pressure will produce flooding rain and severe weather for the Southeast. As it churns northward, it will encounter some cold arctic air on Thursday. At the moment NCEP forecast models agree that the arctic air will hold off till Thursday evening. This means that the heaviest precipitation will fall in the liquid variety. I expect rain to develop this afternoon and continue throughout the day on Thursday. Around the 4pm hour on Thursday I think enough cold air will be in place to cause the rain to mix with snow and sleet before the storm moves out of the picture. In the wake of this storm after midnight, a Lake-effect snow band will develop and produce wide spread snow for much of western and upstate New York down wind of the Great Lakes.
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