Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 25: Tropical Cyclone Sandy

(Satellite Loop of Sandy's Well Defined Eye Crossing Over Cuba)

Tropical Cyclone Sandy is now of Category 2 Hurricane intensity as it moves just to the north of Cuba and into the Bahamas. As of this morning Sandy has a minimum central pressure of 967 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour gusting to 130 miles per hour around the eye wall, its forward motion is to the north at 18 miles per hour. Sandy crossed the island of Jamaica yesterday evening as a category 1 storm, then overnight its winds increased to 110 miles per hour making it a strong category 2 hurricane over Cuba. This system is forecast to continue on a northerly trajectory  this evening and into Friday moving about 150 miles to the east of Florida, as it does so its circulation will expand so even at this distance it will lash southeast Florida with squalls of heavy rain and tropical storm forced wind gusts, mainly confined to the immediate coast from Ft. Lauderdale to Port Canaveral. For this reason, the National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm warnings for southeastern Florida.

(Sandy Sideswipes Florida)

At this point, Sandy's forward speed will begin to increase as it begins to feel the effects of the jet stream. Thereon after predicting the track of this storm begins to get complex as there is a fair amount of disagreement among the forecast models; nevertheless the general consensus for this storm to move northeast and then hook sharply to the west as it phases with a frontal system riding on the jet stream forming one large hybrid storm system  or "Subtropical Storm", which exhibits both tropical and extra-tropical characteristics with a wind field extending hundreds of miles. This will produce large swells up and down the eastern seaboard and a tremendous amount of beach erosion. To top it all off, this will come at the astronomical high tide, further amplifying the storm surge anticipated where this system makes landfall. The now question is how soon will this phasing occur, how strong will the storm be and where will it make landfall. Some models suggest a fairly strong storm making landfall between the Delmarva peninsula and southern New Jersey as early as Monday, while others suggest a weaker land falling system over northern New England as late a Wednesday. This broad range in the track will mean the difference between a rainy day with breezy conditions or a powerful Nor'easter like storm with strong gales up to hurricane force, large storm surge and heavy precipitation. It would be wise to monitor this storm's track especially of you live along the coast from Virginia to Long Island, to northern Maine as this situation has the potential to pose a serious economic and human impact.

(Computer Model Uncertain On the Exact Track of the Storm)

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 23: Tropical Cyclone Sandy

For several days now the meteorological community has been monitoring the western Caribbean Sea for the potential of tropical development. Computer models have been consistent with the idea of certain atmospheric parameters that would fall into place in this region that would be conducive for spawning a tropical system.Yesterday a wave of low pressure over the warm waters of the Caribbean within this ripe atmospheric setting has coalesced to form Tropical Storm Sandy, the eighteenth named tropical system of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of the noon time hour, Sandy is centered approximately 300 miles south of the island nation of Jamaica with a minimum central pressure of 993 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. Its movement is to the NNE ever so slowly at 4 miles per hour, because Sandy is situated in such a favorable environment, it is expected to intensify to perhaps hurricane status before making its first landfall over Jamaica. Due to its broad circulation and slow forward speed, this system will produce copious amounts of rainfall over Jamaica, Cuba, and the impoverished nation of Haiti. This could have a devastating affect as these are fairly mountainous nations and are prone to mudslides and flash flooding. As Sandy progresses to the north it will likely loose strength as its center of circulation passes over the mountains of Cuba before re-emerging over the waters of the Atlantic Ocean over the Bahamas, likely regaining some strength there. Thereafter, the path of this system will pose a challenge as several factors could influence where Sandy goes next. Some computer models have this system staying away from the US mainland as its influenced by a weak subtropical jet stream and takes it out to sea. While others indicate that Sandy will be influenced by a stronger polar jet stream, if this happens there would be two possible scenarios depending on the timing of the jet streams' interaction with Sandy. In the first case scenario, Sandy would begin to interact with the jet stream sooner, this would bring its circulation on a close approach to the east coast of Florida by Friday bringing bands of heavy rain and perhaps tropical forced winds to places like West Palm Beach before it re-curves out to the open waters of the Atlantic. In the second and perhaps worst case scenario, Sandy would begin to interact with the jet stream later moving north past the Bahamas and then accelerate on a bee line up the eastern seaboard targeting anywhere from North Carolina to Maine this weekend. In this worst case scenario, Sandy would be absorbed by a storm system with an associated cold front that will be ridding on the jet stream that will be moving east from the Great Lakes. The phasing of these two system has the potential to wreak havoc on the eastern US from the Midatlantic to New England as well as locations inland from the coast in the Northeast as some models suggest. It is important to note that nothing is set in stone, there is little confidence in the forecast at this time to predict what influence, if any, this system will have on the forecast but it does bear watching.

(Computer Model Uncertainty) 

Just for fun, lets discuss some of the bizarre details that some computer models are predicting this weekend; continuing on the absolute "worst case scenario" as Sandy begins to interact with this other storm system riding on the jet stream, the two storms will phase with one another just off the east coast of the Midatlantic. A swath of heavy precipitation will break out over the Northeast with gale and storm forced winds from Virginia to New England producing tremendous beach erosion and coastal flooding. Once Sandy becomes completely absorbed by the frontal boundary the entire system will become "negatively tilted" pulling an incredible amount of tropical moisture out ahead of it over New England producing torrential rains and flash flooding; while dragging cold air in on the back side producing a swath of heavy wet snow with thunder and lightning over interior sections of the Northeast and Midatlantic especially over the higher elevations of the Appalachians leading to wide spread powers outages for days. The entire system will then lift north into Canada early next week losing strength as it does so. This would be an historic storm if it pans out this way; as bizarre and highly unlikely as it seems, this has happened before during the super storm dubbed "The Perfect Storm" this time back in 1991 when Hurricane Grace phased with a frontal system ridding on the jet stream just off the east coast causing devastation in the Northeast.

(1991 Satellite Imagery Hurricane Grace Pahses with a Frontal System off the Northeast Coast)

NOAA Study: Shifting Winds in the Arctic could have Significant Impact closer to Home

This article is attributed to AccuWeather.com, a great source for weather news, and forecast.

(Negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (higher pressures over the Arctic), which forces cold air farther south into the mid-latitudes)

Higher pressure over the North American continent and Greenland are driving recent changes in the wind patterns across the Arctic, which are impacting sea ice and could bring changes to the weather across North America and Europe, according to a new study that was led by NOAA.

Researchers examined the wind patterns in the subarctic in the early summer between 2007 and 2012 as compared to the average for 1981 to 2010. They discovered that the previously normal west-to-east flowing upper-level winds have been replaced by a more north-south undulating, or wave-like pattern, according to the NOAA news report.

This new wind pattern transports warmer air into the Arctic and pushes Arctic air farther south towards the mid-latitudes, potentially leading to more persistent weather patterns.

Enhanced warming of the Arctic affects the jet stream by slowing its west-to-east winds and by promoting larger north-south meanders in the flow, according to NOAA.

However, predicting those meanders and where the weather associated with them will be located in any given year, however, remains a challenge, according to NOAA.

For example, the previous two winters were very different from one another in North America. There was strong high pressure blocking in the northern latitudes both winters, but the position of these high pressure ridges was very different. Knowing where these blocking highs set up during long periods of the winter is crucial to the forecasts.

The researchers say that with more solar energy going into the Arctic Ocean because of lost ice, there is reason to expect more extreme weather events, such as heavy snowfall, heat waves, and flooding in North America and Europe but these will vary in location, intensity, and timescales. (from NOAA)

As the Arctic warms at twice the global rate, we expect an increased probability of extreme weather events across the temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere, where billions of people live," said Jennifer Francis, Ph.D, of Rutgers. (from NOAA)

----------

The study, entitled "The Recent Shift in Early Summer Arctic Atmospheric Circulation," was co-authored by scientists from Rutgers University in New Jersey, the University of Sheffield in the United Kingdom, and the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, a partnership of NOAA and the University of Washington.

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 16: Tropical Cyclone Rafael

(Click Image To Enlarge)

As of Tuesday morning Tropical Cyclone Rafael is a category 1 Hurricane over the western Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 90 miles per hour  gusting to 115 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of 971 millibars. Its movement is to the NNE at 24 miles per hour away from the US and is accelerating as it is essentially picked up by the jet stream. Its current trajectory will bring the center of Rafael on a close approach to Bermuda by this evening bringing torrential rains and tropical storm force winds to the island. But just as quickly at it comes in it will go out as its forward speed increases with the influence of the strong October jet stream. By this time tomorrow, Rafael will begin to lose its tropical characteristics becoming extra tropical over the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean where it will remain of maritime interest. Looking ahead, there are indicators of a region of favorable tropical storm development setting up over the western Caribbean as the month of October comes to a close. Some models indicate a region of reduced wind shear aloft over this region and at the same time, a wave of low pressure moving in from central America. With water temperatures in the Caribbean well into the 80s, it is plausible to perceive the notion that if these atmospheric conditions do indeed transpire there could very well be tropical development in this region. Some forecast models have been consistent with the idea of some tropical system developing over the this region by mid next week that could  potentially threaten the US mainland, particularly the state of Florida. At this point, forecast confidence is low. Even though it is much too soon to call, this does bear watching.

Hurricane Season 2012 Update October 12: Tropical Storm Patty

(Click Image To Enlarge)

An area of unorganized thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Bahamas associated with a stalled out frontal boundary that has persisted over the past week has coalesced to form a closed circulation at surface levels. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL has dubbed this system Tropical Storm Patty, the 16th named tropical system of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of 12:00 am Friday morning, Patty is centered just north of the Bahamas; it is a fairly weak storm with a minimum central pressure of 1005 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. This system is not expected to further develop, as a strong jet stream will hinder any further strengthening. Tropical Storm Patty is expected to slowly track to the west south west while loosing its convection and becoming an open circulation over the Bahamas, while its thunderstorms gets sheared away by the jet stream. This system will have minor impacts if any for the US, including an elevated risk of rip currents and enhanced thunderstorm activity over southern Florida early next week but that's about it. Statistically, the month of October does produce a shorter secondary peak in tropical storm activity over the Atlantic Ocean, so it is not uncommon to see the tropics ramp up after a lull in activity after the real peak in mid September, however these storms tend to encounter strong wind shear aloft as the jet stream becomes more amplified towards the fall and winter months. Looking ahead, there are indications of another tropical system developing this weekend. A tropical wave to the east of the lesser Antilles will move north into a more favorable region with reduced shear. If it does develop it will be named Rafael, this potential storm system does have the opportunity to become a stronger and more organized storm early next week but will pose no threat to the US. It is expected to be absorbed by the jet stream, loosing its tropical characteristics threatening the island of Bermuda on its northerly track.

Weather Synopsis October 11, 2012

Fall is in the air over the Northeast on this cool October morning as temperatures dipped into the 30s and 40s from the lower Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and New England. A High pressure system over the region is to blame for the chilly temperatures experienced forcing many to crank up the thermostats last night. This area of High Pressure will stick around today providing cool and dry sinking air, promoting mostly sunny conditions across the region. Our next weather maker will arrive on Friday as a cold front will once again sweep the region giving us a reinforcing shot of cold air, producing a wide spread frost for most of the region during the overnight hours on Friday into Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will be stuck in the 40s across interior sections of the Northeast with 50s closer to the Atlantic coast, overnight Lows will be dipping into the 20s and 30s. Along with the cold air, there is a chance of light precipitation during the morning hours across the lower Great Lakes on Friday, though it will feel as if its cold enough for snow, precipitation will likely be a light drizzle or rain shower ending well before Noon. Aside from the cold, Friday will turn out to be a pleasent day weather wise as another area of High Pressure trails in the wake of the cold front. What about the weekend? we can look forward to a nice warm up across the region as the High Pressure system moves off to our east and a southerly flow sets up behind it ushering in a moderating airmass; however we can expect rain and some thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday confined to western and central New York State as a storm system approaches from the west. Looking into next week the forecast calls for warmer tempratures with the possibility of rain for both the begining and the end of the work week, with the greatest chance of precipitation likely at the end of the work week. This weekened would be a great time to head out and experience the brilliant colors of Autumn for us fall enthusiast. Weather conditions have been ripe for nature's aray of colors; the combination of the recent dry spell this summer along with the waves of cold air these past few weeks are making for a spectcular display of fall foliage across the region with many locations approaching peak conditions.

Weather Synopsis October 2nd 2012

Welcome to October; for many it is the best time of the year as temperatures begin to fall, leaves begin to change, and the MLB playoffs gets into high gear. Weather wise, the month is off to a rainy start in the Northeast as a storm system centered over the Tennessee valley is producing unsettled conditions over the region. The chance of precipitation will remain through Wednesday in the Mid Atlantinc and into Thursday  for New England as this area of low pressure lifts north into Canadian terretories. Along with the rain, this system will moderate our temperatures a bit across the Northeast, highs in the upper 60s and 70s can be expected for the remainder of the work week before big changes head our way this weekend. The month of October is known for highly changable weather and big temperature swings over the northern U.S. as we are heading well into the fall season. This week will be no exception, there are already signs of this flux in the forecast as a cold front is piercing through the Nothern Rockies today. This cold front marks the leading edge of colder temperatures and is forcast to invade the Northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday producing the first few inches of snow fall of the season for many folks in the path of this cold air intrusion from Montana, the Dakotas and northern Minesota. This cold airmass will be moderating as it pushes east, but will still remain quite chilly as it approaches the Northeastern U.S. this weekend and early next week, initiating the first frost for much of the interior sections of the region with overnight lows dipping into the 30s and afternoon highs hard pressed to rise above the 50s. Along with the dip in temperatures, this cold front will bring a chilly rain on Saturday from central Pennsylvania through Western New York and Sunday from the Mid Atlantinc on north to New England.

Replacement Weather Satellite for GOES East

This article is attributed to AccuWeather.com, a great source for weather news, and forecast.

Like the National Football League referee situation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is using a replacement satellite to cover the failure of GOES-13. A major weather satellite operated by the U.S. government to monitor the east coast of the U.S. and the Atlantic Ocean has gone dark due to technical issues. The failure of Satellite GOES-13 (GOES-East) satellite has left a gap for meteorologists trying to catch a view of the eastern Atlantic and has satellite coverage of the Atlantic spread a bit thin.



GOES-14 was activated and repositioned on Monday to fill part of the void left to satellite imagery in eastern North America and the Atlantic. However, images on the eastern edge of view, over the eastern Atlantic are distorted. While other satellites of the eastern Atlantic are available, such as the European operated, METEOSAT, it makes the tracking of systems within the entire basin as a whole more difficult. The U.S also has polar orbiting satellites. However, the images are rather narrow and not continuous, like the GOES, geostationary satellites.



The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed Monday that GOES-13 has been placed in stand-by mode, following increased vibrations, or "noise," observed in imagery over the past couple of days. Launched in 2006, GOES-13 went operational in 2010 and was expected to remain in service for several more years. Stand-by mode means the satellite has basically been taken offline until problems are resolved.



The vibrations were severe enough that data collection and imagery was returning to earth significantly degraded over the past couple of days. NOAA engineers are currently working on a solution to correct the problem with GOES-13 from the ground and have no timetable for return of data collection. Earlier this year, in March, GOES-15 (GOES-West) was out of action for several days and it was GOES-13 that had to be repositioned to fill part of the gap. The result was distorted images on part of the Pacific Basin for a time. Launch of the first of a new generation of weather satellites, known as the GOES-R series is not scheduled to begin until 2015.



Satellite images and loops are is available for free at AccuWeather.com

Tracking Tropical Cyclone Isaac (8/27)

Tracking Tropical Cyclone Isaac (8/26)

As of Sunday morning, Tropical Cyclone Isaac is currently at tropical storm intensity with maximum sustained wind speeds up to 65 miles per hour, only 9 miles per hour shy of hurricane intensity. Tropical storm forced winds of 39 miles per hour or greater associated with Isaac extend as far out as West Palm Beach, Florida. The center of circulation is just to the south east of the Florida Keyes. The strongest winds associated with Isaac will be felt in the most intense rain bands in the upper right hand quadrant of the storm. There is an elevated risk of flooding as well as tornadoes for all of south Florida as it is not uncommon for land-falling tropical systems to produce torrential rains and rain wrapped tornadoes. Unfortunately, conditions will get worst through the evening on Sunday before they begin to improve on Monday across southern Florida. Upper level winds are expected to steer Isaac into the open waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, an area that is favorable for strengthening. Isaac is expected to rapidly intensify to category 2 hurricane status with winds up and over 100 miles per hour. Isaac is expected to make a secondary land-fall some where along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, although there is uncertainty as to where the center of circulation will make land-fall the impacts will be wide spread as it is a fairly large circulation. Residents along the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana need to keep a close eye on this storm as this storm will pose a serious threat to life and property.

Friday July 3rd 2012

 From The National Weather Service...

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS...THIS WILL POTENTIALLY
RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES THAT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WOULD PROMPT A HEAT ADVISORY.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE. 

Warm temperatures to greet in the month of May

After a chilly past couple of days across the Northeast, a warmer and more humid air mass is set to usher in the month of May. Temperatures over the region have been running between 5F and 10F degrees below average, and in some cases into western New York, temperatures have been as much as 20F below the normal with Snow during the early part of last week. That is all about to change as temperatures could be hoovering near record high territories in some cases this up coming week. It will feel more like summer than spring for the entire region with temperatures into the 80's during the latter part of the week. A strong high pressure system over the region that has been responsible for the brilliant sunshine and the spectacular weather this weekend will be moving out towards the east of the region. This will produce a flow out of the south ushering in warmer and more muggy conditions. Temperatures will moderate to the middle 60's Monday and Tuesday with upper 70's and 80's for the rest of the week. Along with the warmth will come the humidity, enough so that we could experience instability with your typical garden variety air mass thunder storms during the afternoon hours. There after, indicators are pointing towards more seasonal temperatures and rain for the week of May 6.

Potential Storm Brewing for Sunday and Monday

A round of rain will swing by western New York State on Saturday with a cold front moving through the area; then a heavy drenching rain is on tap for Sunday night into Monday night for the Northeastern United States with the potential for heavy wet snow for western New York State down to western Pennsylvania and West Virginia especially for the higher elevations. A storm system will move up the coast and is expected to wind up off shore ushering in cold air behind it. Heavy rain is expected over much of the region on the order of 1 to 3 inches or better especially along the Atlantic coast including the big cities from D.C. to Boston, then away from the coast this rain could mix with and change over to wet snow for some interior portions of the Northeast. Given the anticipated high precipitation rates, if the air is just marginally cold enough some regions could pick up a significant amount of snow for this time of the year - most likely over the higher terrain of western New York, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia - while other areas in this highlighted region could pick a few inches of wet snow accumulation at the lower elevations from Buffalo, NY to the Finger Lakes region.

Buffalo Forecast April 14th

Buffalo forecast April 7th 2012

Buffalo Forecast April 2nd

Buffalo Forecast Thursday March 8th

A cold front moves through western New York bringing rain an colder temperatures. Rain could mix in with snow before tapering off late Thursday night. Low temperatures dropping to the upper 20's. It will be colder on Friday with Highs in the middle 30's. A quick moving storm system will produce some light snow showers that will be enhanced by the warmer lake waters. We could pick up a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow by Friday night. Low temperatures on Friday will dive down to the low 20's. And on Saturday, a much better day weather wise, but it will be cold; partly cloudy skies with a High in the middle 30's.

February 2012 European Temperature Anomalies

While February remained mild across the lower 48, Europe experienced its coldest temperatures in decades during a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. This graphic depicts the temperature anomalies observed across Europe and Asia during February courtesy of N.O.A.A.

Snowfall Totals Jan 19 - Jan 20

NEW YORK

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...

CHAPPAQUA: 7.0 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

THORNWOOD: 6.5 Inches 100 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MOUNT KISCO: 6.3 Inches 230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

ARMONK: 6.2 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

DOBBS FERRY: 6.1 Inches 400 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

YONKERS: 6.1 Inches 410 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

OSSINING: 5.5 Inches 1256 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MOUNT VERNON: 4.5 Inches 215 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

HARRISON: 4.5 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON: 4.5 Inches 200 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

WHITE PLAINS: 4.2 Inches 530 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

BRONXVILLE: 3.9 Inches 100 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...BRONX COUNTY...

FIELDSTON: 5.0 Inches 1210 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

BRONX ZOO: 4.2 Inches 1200 PM 1/21 BRONX ZOO

RIVERDALE: 4.0 Inches 1223 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

SOUNDVIEW: 3.8 Inches 1210 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...QUEENS COUNTY...

ASTORIA: 3.5 Inches 1245 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT: 3.4 Inches 100 PM 1/21 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

BAYSIDE: 2.0 Inches 1210 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

KENNEDY AIRPORT: 1.6 Inches 700 PM 1/21 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...KINGS COUNTY (BROOKLYN)...

SHEEPSHEAD BAY: 2.1 Inches 530 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY (MANHATTAN)...

CENTRAL PARK: 4.3 Inches 700 PM 1/21 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

UPPER WEST SIDE: 4.2 Inches 1200 PM 1/21 SPOTTER- W 85TH ST

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

ORIENT: 7.2 Inches 700 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SOUTHAMPTON: 6.0 Inches 906 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SOUTHOLD: 6.0 Inches 800 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

UPTON: 5.5 Inches 700 PM 1/21 NWS OFFICE

MASTIC: 5.4 Inches 303 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

CUTCHOGUE: 5.3 Inches 500 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

RIVERHEAD: 5.2 Inches 1220 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

SOUND BEACH: 5.2 Inches 1215 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

BAITING HOLLOW: 5.0 Inches 1258 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SHOREHAM: 5.0 Inches 554 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

EASTPORT: 4.8 Inches 1209 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

ST. JAMES: 4.7 Inches 1250 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

PORT JEFFERSON: 4.7 Inches 615 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MILLER PLACE: 4.5 Inches 530 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

SETAUKET: 4.5 Inches 1215 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MOUNT SINAI: 4.4 Inches 245 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

STONY BROOK: 4.4 Inches 300 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MEDFORD: 4.0 Inches 330 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

KINGS PARK: 3.7 Inches 330 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

CENTERPORT: 3.7 Inches 1230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

RONKONKOMA: 3.6 Inches 1246 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

ISLIP AIRPORT: 3.6 Inches 700 PM 1/21 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

BABYLON: 3.5 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

NORTHPORT: 3.0 Inches 300 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...

BAYVILLE: 5.3Inches 155 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

NEW HYDE PARK: 4.2 Inches 600 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

JERICHO: 3.3 Inches 600 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MASSAPEQUA: 3.2 Inches 600 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

SYOSSET: 3.0 Inches 800 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

BELLEROSE TERRACE: 2.3 Inches 230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

CARLE PLACE: 2.3 Inches 1223 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

HEMPSTEAD: 2.3 Inches 1200 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WOODMERE: 2.3 Inches 200 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

LYNBROOK: 2.0 Inches 651 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ORANGE COUNTY...

TUXEDO PARK: 6.0 Inches 335 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MONROE: 5.1 Inches 1233 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WARWICK: 5.0 Inches 115 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MIDDLETOWN: 5.0 Inches 1221 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

HARRIMAN: 5.0 Inches 1259 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

BLOOMING GROVE: 4.8 Inches 326 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

GOSHEN: 4.8 Inches 100 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW HAMPTON: 4.5 Inches 110 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MONTGOMERY: 4.5 Inches 350 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

NEW WINDSOR: 3.9 300 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...PUTNAM COUNTY...

CARMEL: 6.0 Inches 211 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MAHOPAC: 5.0 Inches 330 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

PUTNAM VALLEY: 4.6 Inches 200 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...ROCKLAND COUNTY:...

TALLMAN: 7.0 Inches 439 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

THIELLS: 6.0 Inches 205 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

VALLEY COTTAGE: 6.0 Inches 1205 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

STONY POINT: 5.8 Inches 1255 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW CITY: 5.4 Inches 130 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

Jan 20 Northeast Snow Storm Late Friday Night and Saturday

The next clipper in a series of snow storms impacting the Northeast is forecast to arrive tonight into Saturday. Snow will overspread the region late Friday night and early Saturday morning; the snow will end from west to east late Saturday morning into the Saturday afternoon hours. The heaviest snow is expected along Interstate 80 from Pennsylvania to NYC and southern New England with accumulations in the order of 4 to 7 inches with locally heavier amounts in the mountains. Sleet and freezing rain could mix in with the snow for a time on Saturday afternoon in Long Island with the influence of the warm Atlantic Ocean, this could hold down snow accumulations. A general 1 to 4 inches of snow is expected along the New York State Thruway from Buffalo to Albany. After this storm system departs, a brief warm up early next week will melt most of the snow that has fallen making for a wet and slushy mess.

Snowfall Totals Jan 19

...ERIE COUNTY...

WILLIAMSVILLE: 4.0 Inches 540 PM 1/19 PUBLIC

SWORMVILLE: 3.5 Inches 749 PM 1/19 NWS EMPLOYEE

AKRON: 3.3 Inches 610 PM 1/19 FELL IN 2 HOURS

AMHERST: 3.1 Inches 515 PM 1/19 TRAINED SPOTTER

BUFFALO: 3.0 Inches 652 PM 1/19 PUBLIC

BUFFALO INTL ARPT: 2.9 Inches 600 PM 1/19 ASOS

WEST SENECA: 2.4 Inches 657 PM 1/19 PUBLIC

EAST AURORA: 2.1 Inches 645 PM 1/19 NWS EMPLOYEE

BLASDELL: 1.5 Inches 618 PM 1/19 FELL IN 1.5 HOURS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

NORTH TONAWANDA: 4.2 Inches 703 PM 1/19 COCORAHS

Jan 18: Parade of Snow Storms For The Northeast

A series of fast moving snow storms or clippers are taking aim at the Northeastern US over the course of the next several days. One of these storm systems is currently departing the Northeast, this system started as snow and sleet in the New York City metropolitan area on Monday night, then as temperatures moderated the rain moved in on Teusday. In the wake of this system an arctic air mass produced an outbreak of Lake Effect Snow that will last through the day Wednesday before shutting off in the early afternoon. The next system in the series of storms headed for the region will arrive on Thursday. This will be a quick hitting storm producing more of a nuisance snow from a coating to upto 3 inches of snow accumulations with greater amounts downwind of the lakes Erie and Ontario. Thereafter, yet another storm system will impact the Northeast on Saturday. This system could have a more pronounced impact in the region producing a more significant snowfall. From 3 to 6 inches of snow could fall north of interstate 80 and along the New York State Thruway. This system could also impact coastal regions along interstate 95 especially in New England with accumulating snow that could affect travel in the big cities. It is too early to tell how this system will manifest itself once it reaches the coast on Saturday, but the potential exists for troublesome snowfall. There are more storms on the horizon beyond this weekend along with outbreaks of cold arctic air with short intermittent warmth spells. Winter seems to finally be getting started, remember February and March tend to have their surprises.

Snowfall Totals Jan 13 - Jan 14

...ERIE COUNTY...

COLDEN: 15.1 Inches 700 AM 1/15 CO-OP OBSERVER

GLENWOOD: 16.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

COLLINS: 14.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

BOSTON: 13.5 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

COLDEN: 11.7 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

WEST SENECA: 10.7 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

EAST AURORA: 10.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

ELMA CENTER: 9.8 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

EDEN: 9.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 PUBLIC

WALES: 8.5 Inches 700 AM 1/15 CO-OP OBSERVER

BLASDELL: 8.5 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

KENMORE: 8.3 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

BUFFALO INTL AIRPORT: 8.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 ASOS

S AKRON: 7.7 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

NE TONAWANDA: 7.1 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

WILLIAMSVILLE: 8.5 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

HAMBURG: 7.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 PUBLIC

LANCASTER: 6.5 Inches 700 AM 1/15 NWS EMPLOYEE

CLARENCE CENTER: 4.6 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

Friday's Storm Could Be An Overachiever

Wintry weather will return to western New York begining early Friday morning. A large storm system resposible for Thursday's rain will lead a big push of arctic air that will swing through the region Thursday night into Friday. This arctric air mass over the open waters of the lakes will produce Lake Effect Snow mainly south of Buffalo Friday and Saturday. The Lake Snows will be enhanced by an upper level low that will be swinging through from western PA through western NY. There is a good likelyhood that this upper low feature will produce a period of heavier snow for all of western New York on Friday from 4:00AM through about 1:00PM. A general 4 to 8 inches of snow can be expected with higher amounts from Lake Effect Snow that will develop down wind of Lake Erie mainly south of Buffalo and down wind of Lake Ontario into Rochester. Travelalong the NYS Thruway will be a mess with heavy snow and gusty winds.

Big Time Lake Effect Snow To Ring In 2012

The National Weather Service in Cheektowaga, NY has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for western New York State downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario beginig Sunday evening January 1st. This is in anticipation of a sharp cold front that is swinging through the region. Ahead of the front temperatures will soar into the upper 40's while behind the front temperatures will be in the teens and twenties. This artic blast will be accompanied by Gale force winds in excess of 40 miles per hour with gusts as high as 65 miles per hour. The cold wind over the unfrozen, relatively warm lake waters is expected to produce the first significant Lake Effect Snow event of this winter season. Initially rain will fall, quickly changing to snow after the passage of the cold front late Sunday afternoon. Heavy snow in combination with strong winds will produce blizzard conditions with significant blowing and drifting snow and near zero visibilities. Snowfall rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected with in the lake snow bands. In Buffalo, the heaviest snow should fall Sunday evening through early Monday morning with a secondary round of snow expected on Wednesday. Snow accumulations could range between 4 inches to 1 foot by the time the snow subsides on Wenesday evening from Niagara Falls to the Buffalo south towns. Areas south of Buffalo as well as downwind of Lake Ontatario could recieve between 1 and 3 feet of snow by Wenesday evening. In addition to the snow and wind, the strong gales are expected to produce a surge of water along the leeward lake shores leading to coastal flooding.

Prospects For Snow Tuesday Night

The Northeastern US has been under a snow drought this season. Temperatures have been running well above normal through the fall and so far through the winter as well. This time last year we were dealing with much colder temperatures and the monster blizzard along the coast that paralyzed the megalopolis from D.C. to Philly, NYC and Boston. This year however, we haven't had much to talk about in the way of snow and cold. However, it does appear as if that is slowly about to change as several opportunities for snow are on the horizon for the Northeast over the next two weeks. I'm monitoring a storm system that will enter the picture on Tuesday producing rain for the Northeast along the coast; temperatures should be cold enough away from the coast across interior sections of the Northeast that rain can change to snow on Tuesday night. While a steady rain will fall east of Interstate 81 from eastern Pennsylvania to the Atlantic coast, snow can be expected across western Pennsylvania and upstate New York into northern New England. 1-3 inches of snow will be common across western New York and Pennsylvania with higher amounts between 6-12 inches across the higher terrain of northern New York State and Vermont by Wednesday morning as the storm system moves away from the region leaving behind a much colder air mass in its wake.

Snowfall Totals 12/09/11

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************


NEW YORK

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

--DUNKIRK: 2.0 inches 1010 PM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ERIE COUNTY...

--NW AMHERST: 3.0 inches 1100 AM 12/09 WIVB

--E AMHERST: 2.7 inches 1100 AM 12/09 NWS EMPLOYEE

--NNE TONAWANDA: 2.5 inches 1207 PM 12/09 COCORAHS

--S AKRON: 2.4 inches 1043 PM 12/09 COCORAHS

--S DERBY: 2.0 inches 720 PM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

--NORTH TONAWANDA: 4.3 inches 1201 AM 12/10 CO-OP OBSERVER

--NNW NORTH TONAWAND: 3.9 inches 1044 PM 12/09 COCORAHS

--ENE LOCKPORT: 3.9 inches 1030 AM 12/09 COCORAHS

--SSW SANBORN: 3.5 inches 1125 AM 12/09 PUBLIC

--NIAGARA FALLS INTL A: 3.3 inches 100 PM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER

--SSE SOUTH LOCKPORT: 3.0 inches 700 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

--SANBORN 3.0 inches 420 PM 12/09 PUBLIC

--NE LOCKPORT: 2.5 inches 625 AM 12/09 COCORAHS

--NORTH HARTLAND: 2.0 inches 815 AM 12/09 WIVB

A Meteorological Bust

The Lake Effect snow that was anticipated from Thursday through Friday was a meteorological bust to say the least. Snow accumulations ranged between 1.2 inches at the airport to 3.9 inches in Niagara Falls, a far cry from the 9.0+ inches that were forecast initially. The National Weather Service in Cheektowaga had to down grade its Lake Effect Snow Warning to an Advisory on Friday morning after less favorable Lake Effect conditions became apparent. The Lake Effect snow did not get cranking until around 6:00AM Friday morning; nearly eight hours later than anticipated, and it was confined to Niagara county and the Buffalo north towns for the most part. Accumulations were limited mainly to grassy surfaces and automobiles. Nevertheless, this was the first wide spread snow event of the season for the snow deprived city of Buffalo. Lake Erie is still fairly warm, the latest observations measured a lake temperature of 45 degrees Fahrenheit, well above average for this time of the year. I have a hunch that we are not done with Lake Effect Snow just yet.

EF2 Tornado Near Fredonia, NY on 11/14/11

Click Image To Enlarge

Hybrid Storm System Update 11/10

Tropical Storm Sean has developed over the Atlantic. This was a hybrid storm initially that developed off of a Mid-latitude Cyclone that acquired Tropical Storm characteristics over the warm subtropical waters of the Atlantic off the Southeastern US coast, north of the greater Antilles. An elevated rip current threat and rough surf can be expected from the east coast of Florida to the outer banks of North Carolina. This system is forecast to loose its tropical characteristics, becoming extra tropical as it moves into the cooler waters of the north Atlantic Ocean. A part of this storm's energy will be absorbed by a strong cold front that will move east on Thursday November 10th. This phase between systems will likely enhance precipitation over eastern New England on Veterans Day this Friday November 11. Tropical Storm Sean is the 18th named system so far to spawn from the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.