(Satellite Loop of Sandy's Well Defined Eye Crossing Over Cuba)
Tropical Cyclone Sandy is now of Category 2 Hurricane intensity as it moves just to the north of Cuba and into the Bahamas. As of this morning Sandy has a minimum central pressure of 967 millibars and maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour gusting to 130 miles per hour around the eye wall, its forward motion is to the north at 18 miles per hour. Sandy crossed the island of Jamaica yesterday evening as a category 1 storm, then overnight its winds increased to 110 miles per hour making it a strong category 2 hurricane over Cuba. This system is forecast to continue on a northerly trajectory this evening and into Friday moving about 150 miles to the east of Florida, as it does so its circulation will expand so even at this distance it will lash southeast Florida with squalls of heavy rain and tropical storm forced wind gusts, mainly confined to the immediate coast from Ft. Lauderdale to Port Canaveral. For this reason, the National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm warnings for southeastern Florida.
(Sandy Sideswipes Florida)
At this point, Sandy's forward speed will begin to increase as it begins to feel the effects of the jet stream. Thereon after predicting the track of this storm begins to get complex as there is a fair amount of disagreement among the forecast models; nevertheless the general consensus for this storm to move northeast and then hook sharply to the west as it phases with a frontal system riding on the jet stream forming one large hybrid storm system or "Subtropical Storm", which exhibits both tropical and extra-tropical characteristics with a wind field extending hundreds of miles. This will produce large swells up and down the eastern seaboard and a tremendous amount of beach erosion. To top it all off, this will come at the astronomical high tide, further amplifying the storm surge anticipated where this system makes landfall. The now question is how soon will this phasing occur, how strong will the storm be and where will it make landfall. Some models suggest a fairly strong storm making landfall between the Delmarva peninsula and southern New Jersey as early as Monday, while others suggest a weaker land falling system over northern New England as late a Wednesday. This broad range in the track will mean the difference between a rainy day with breezy conditions or a powerful Nor'easter like storm with strong gales up to hurricane force, large storm surge and heavy precipitation. It would be wise to monitor this storm's track especially of you live along the coast from Virginia to Long Island, to northern Maine as this situation has the potential to pose a serious economic and human impact.
(Computer Model Uncertain On the Exact Track of the Storm)
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