Weather synopsis: Tuesday November 30

4:20pm a soaking rain is prompting concerns of flooding all along the Northeast as a storm system continues to creep in to the region. Along with the threat of floods, this system will likely produce severe thunderstorms on Wednesday along the coast. Expect heavy rain and strong winds to continue through the evening, The National Weather service has issued a wind advisory in effect Wednesday morning which includes New York City and Long Island; here, winds could gust up to 50 miles per hour. This storm system will continue to slowly move east on Wednesday, behind this storm a cold air mass will rush in to the region. Rain will mix with and eventually change over to snow across the interior Northeast. This provides a good indication of how cold it will be after this storm moves on by. On Tuesday temperatures are running in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees; on Wednesday behind the cold front, temperatures will run in the 30s and 40s. Accumulating snow is possible on Wednesday evening in Buffalo as the rain changes to snow, by Wednesday night between 1 and 3 inches of snow is possible here. Then from Wednesday night through Thursday Lake Effect Snow could develop producing additional snow accumulations down wind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday which includes the city of Buffalo. At this time, the most persistent snowfall is forecast to stay just south of Buffalo, however it is possible that this squall of Lake Effect Snow will be over Buffalo for a time producing a few inches of additional accumulation. Looking ahead, there is speculation that this weekend and beyond could host the coldest air mass since last winter with a good opportunity for snow across the entire Northeast next week, more details as the time frame approaches.

Weather synopsis: Sunday November 28

12:20pm a dome of High Pressure is dominating the weather across the east producing generally fair weather from Maine to Florida. Temperatures are forecast to moderate today and tomorrow, this should melt most of the snow from this weekend's Lake Effect. Reports of generally 2 to 4 inches of snow came in from Buffalo with higher amounts south of the city on the order of 5 inches to well over 1 foot. There will be a lull in the weather through Monday ahead of the next storm system, this next low pressure system will affect enter the Northeast on Tuesday bringing heavy rain and possible severe thunderstorms. By Wednesday, a cold air mass will rush in behind this system and will likely change the rain to snow before ending on Wednesday evening from Buffalo to Long Island. The cyclonic flow (counter clock wise) around this low pressure system will orient the winds over the Great Lakes and will likely initiate another round of Lake Effect Snow along the snow belt Wednesday through Thursday. Snowfall accumulations could be heavy in localized areas downwind of the lakes. Looking ahead in to the first weekend of December and beyond, forecast models are hinting towards the development of a storm system that could affect a good portion of the Northeast with heavy wind driven snow; it is still too early to say whether or not this will transpire, I will continue to monitor this situation as the time frame approaches.

Weather synopsis: Friday November 26

11:11am The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for counties down wind of Lake Erie which includes the city of Buffalo. The Lake Erie snow machine will spring to life for the first time this season. Cold, strong and gusty winds blowing over the relatively warm waters of the lake will initiate a narrow band of Lake Effect Snow that will affect western New York from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. This band of snow will likely produce a period of heavy snow from Buffalo southward. Locations where this band of snow is most persistent will likely see 1 to 2 feet of snow before it is all said and done; at this time, the greatest accumulations are expected to hit the southern suburbs of Buffalo (Dunkirk, Hamburg, Fredonia). The city of Buffalo its self is not out of the picture. This band of snow will produce snow fall rates of 2 to 3 inches of accumulation per hour; the snow squall will be over Downtown Buffalo from 7:00pm this evening thorough the early morning hours on Saturday. Snow totals in Buffalo could range between 5 inches to 1 foot by Saturday with the highest accumulations toward Downtown. Lesser amounts of snow can be expected as you head northward away from Buffalo, conversely, greater amounts of snow is likely south of Buffalo. Along with the snow, winds will be gusting up and over 45 miler per hour. This will cause near white out conditions at times due to blowing and drifting snow. The worst of the weather will hit Buffalo this evening and will linger though the very early morning on Saturday before diminishing through Saturday afternoon. Elsewhere across the Northeast, a storm system will be moving through producing showers of rain. In the wake of this system temperatures will once again take a tumble with highs around 40 degrees Fahrenheit on Saturday with clear skies along the coast.

Weather synopsis: Wednesday November 24

7:10pm a shift in the predominant weather pattern is underway for the eastern portion of the nation. Temperatures have dropped nearly 20 degrees since yesterday as a cold air mass continues to spill into the region. A storm system will be moving in on Thanks Giving day; precipitation will break out in the form of rain along the coast with pockets of freezing rain, sleet and snow across the interior valleys of the Northeast including portions of northern Pennsylvania and the southern tier of western New York State. Snow could mix in with the rain in Buffalo on Thanks Giving day as well. As this storm system passes on by, another shot of cold air will rush in behind it. This will initiate the first significant Lake Effect Snowfall of the season over the eastern shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario. For this reason, the National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch which includes the city of Buffalo from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Light snow will get steadier from noon time on over the lower Great Lakes region. At this time it is rather early to pinpoint the exact locations that will receive the heaviest of the snow accumulation, the potential exists for up to 2 feet of snow in a localized area with in the most persistent snow bands which appear to be just south of Buffalo and down wind of Lake Ontario. This will be the first accumulating snow across many areas since last winter, this would be a good time to winterize your vehicle in anticipation of a potentially major accumulating snow event in western New York.

Weather synopsis: Monday November 22

11:59pm today was a mild November day as temperatures climbed up to the 60s - Persistent showers and rumbles of thunder earlier on Monday affected a good portion of the Northeast; these were attributed to a warm front that swept the region and introduced a warm, moist air mass. The gears are in motion for a shift in the weather pattern as we progress through the course of the Thanks Giving week. This shift will occur in stages, the first of which will take place Tuesday. Unsettled weather will return to the Northeast as a cold front passes by, initiating heavy rain over western New York during the morning hours. This line of showers will work its way east through the day; behind the cold front temperatures will drop from the 50s and 60s to the 30s and 40s. A better day will be in store on Wednesday despite the cold temperatures. By the latter portion of the week, the next storm system will usher in the next stage in the weather pattern shift. On Thursday; Thanks Giving Day, temperatures will moderate somewhat and a chilly rain will break out across the Northeast a head of an approaching cold front. Once this secondary cold front passes on the evening of Thanks Giving, a strong and cold wind will be oriented over the Great Lakes producing the first wide spread Lake Effect Snow event of the season. An accumulating snowfall is likely east of Lake Erie on Friday with the steadiest snows expected to fall just south of Buffalo. The snow will fly through Saturday. A secondary Lake Effect Snow Squall will develop over Lake Ontario on Saturday and will likely produce the greatest amounts of snow accumulation over the Allegheny Plateau. The long range forecast for the month of December calls for a cold and snowy start to the month across the Northeast just in time for the end-of-semester hustle and bustle across most Colleges and Universities, the latter part of the month of December is looking to be moderating, temperature wise, before a deep freeze rounds up the end of the year.

Weather synopsis: Saturday November 20

12:46pm its been a cold end to the week after a stretch of warm weather that lasted from late last week through the first half of this week. The roller coaster temperature ride will continue as a warm air mass prepares to overtake the Northeast during the first half of Thanks Giving week. Temperatures will likely reach 60 degrees on Monday; the mild weather will be accompanied by rain. The rain will be associated with a cold front that will slowly creep towards the east coast through the course of week. Behind this cold front temperatures are much colder, in fact this has been the coldest air mass of the season so far with a deep winter like chill. The cold front will finally sweep through the Northeast by Friday. The forecast for Thanks Giving day calls for rain along the coast with a mixture of snow and rain away from the coast. On Black Friday, the cold front will clear the coast; though it will be very cold it should be a nice day for the Northeast with the exception of the lower Great Lakes region where Lake Effect Snow will develop.

Weather synopsis: Tuesday November 16

11:59pm the storm that was forecast to arrive late this week has arrived earlier than anticipated into a relatively warm air mass sparing the Northeast from a potential winter storm. However; this system has produced heavy rain through Tuesday evening and will continue on Wednesday before diminishing. As this low departs, winds will gust up to 45 miles per hour, for this reason the National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory through Wednesday evening for a good portion of the Northeast including Buffalo and New York City/ Long Island. Along with the gusty winds, temperatures will gradually cool down behind this system by Thursday and a narrow band of light lake effect snow showers could develop affecting western New York along the lower Great Lakes Thursday evening and Friday morning. Thanks Giving week is looking a little tricky as forecast models are in disagreement as to what might transpire. Nevertheless, it does appear as if after a very slight and brief warm up this upcoming weekend our temperatures will be on the downward trend.

Weather synopsis: Friday November 12

1:32am the stretch of fair weather perpetuates as a high pressure system continues to influence the weather over the Northeast. The pleasant weather is expected to last through Saturday, high temperature will top 60 degrees once again. Despite foggy conditions during the morning hours, the fog will lift and sunshine will overtake the sky by high noon. Nevertheless; we are now coming in to mid-November and these spells of warmth are short-lived. Forecast models are indicating that there will be a change in the weather pattern in the weeks approaching Thanks Giving. We will notice this change late next week as the first of perhaps multiple intrusions of cold arctic air interlopes in the Northeast. As per the current model data, there exists the potential of a storm brewing by late next, Thursday November 18th. There is a likelihood of an accumulating snow event over the Northeast. Though it is still too early to say for certain weather or not a winter storm is in the horizon late next week, air temperatures will be colder. In addition to the cold temperatures, the Jet-stream will be oriented in a way that will be favorable for wintry weather in time for the busiest travel period of the year.

Weather synopsis: Wednesday November 3

2:08am the brisk chill that has enveloped the Northeast has certainly reminded us that the anticipated winter season is well underway. On the evening of Halloween portions of the Northeast experienced a taste of winter as an upper level low pressure system produced enough instability with in the atmosphere to produce precipitation; the cold air mass in place across western New York was chilly enough to support a light mixture of Sleet/Snow/Rain for a duration of approximately 30 minutes to an hour. Now, atmospheric dynamics are in motion and yet another blast of cold air gets ready to be injected in to the eastern portion of the United States from the north. This shot of cold air will trail a cold front that will be moving south from Canada on Thursday November 4th. As this cold front plunges south, a Low Pressure System over the Gulf of Mexico states will ride along the Jet Stream. The Jet Stream will be oriented much like it would during a Nor'easter during the winter; the only difference is that, though it will be cold, the coldest air will not have reached the coast in time to support a significant snow event for the major cities of the Northeast. However, there is a good chance of seeing light snow flurries once this coastal storm pulls away. This will allow a dense cold air mass to infiltrate the Northeast from the north towards the south. Winds will be gusting between 35 and 45 miles per hour from Friday in to Saturday, this flow will be conducive for the development of Lake Effect Snow. These Lake Effect Snow squalls will likely reach all the way to the coast producing very light Snow Flurries perhaps in to New York City, at this time no accumulation is expected. As you head further north towards the Great Lakes, here it is likely to receive a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces and cars. There is the potential to see a few inches of snow in some regions along the Great Lakes where these Lake Effect Snow squalls are most persistent. The precipitation will persist through the day on Saturday November 6th before settling down. NCEP forecast models indicate that a warm up should follow this small winter blast early next week before yet another shot of cold air arrives towards the latter portion of next week.