2010: A Look Back At The Wild Year In Weather

11:11am 2010 turned out to be a year of weather extremes for the entire world, not only was it the warmest meteorological year on record world wide, the end of the year was also the coldest and snowiest November and December ever on record for Europe. The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season was the 3rd most active Hurricane Season on record with 19 named tropical systems developing in the Atlantic basin. And do you recall the majors headlines of this year? The magnitude 8.8 Earthquake that struck Chile in February was the strongest quake ever recorded on Earth. The magnitude 7.2 Earthquake that struck Haiti in January brought upheaval to its people and focused world attention on the devastation. The extreme monsoon flooding in Pakistan during the summer was the worst modern natural disaster, directly affecting 200 million people. The eruption of the Iceland Volcano Eyjafjallajokull in April was responsible for the worst civil aviation breakdown since World War 2. And even here with in the continental United States, we've had our fair share of extremes. The big daddy of environmental disaster, the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico spewed 205.8 million gallons of crude oil in to the ocean non stop from April to September shutting down the economy of the Gulf of Mexico States. The "Snowmagedon" that unleashed storm after storm over the Northeast in early 2010 buried cities under an unprecedented amount of snow from Virginia to Long Island with snowfall totals for the season exceeding 80 inches in Philadelphia and Baltimore, surpassing the snowfall amounts in Buffalo for that season. The summer of 2010 will be remembered for the series of deadly heat waves that affected the entire world; All-time record highs were set in over a dozen countries in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. Record warmth ravished the continental United States with many cities surpassing their longest streak of 90 degrees or better by a significant margin. In Russia, this was the worst heatwave in 1000 years with many cities reaching 100 degrees for the first time since records have been kept. In Moscow the heat produced a thick chocking smog due to the combination of the heat and air pollution, doubling the mortality rate. Last but certainly not least was the Christmas weekend Blizzard that affected over 80 million people in the eastern United States and virtually paralyzed the city of New York for days after the storm.

Christmas Weekend Nor'Easter Recap

The New York City Metropolitan Area received between 20 inches and 40 inches of snow in less than 24 hours in a Nor'Easter that paralyzed the Big Apple. All area airports were shutdown for over 12 hours, airlines canceled over 5,000 flights leaving thousands of passengers stranded for days. The storm forced Amtrak to cancel all service between NYC and Boston and caused massive delays in the New York City subway system, Some people were stuck in subway trains for up to 11 hours. Emergency response crews could not get to 911 calls due to the city's poor management during the blizzard, streets remained unplowed for up to 3 days after the storm. This Nor'Easter is one for the records; winds were gusting to near 80 miles per hour in many coastal areas during the height of the storm; numerous reports of thunder and lightning were widely scattered throughout the area. A minimum central pressure of 965 millibars was recorded at the center of circulation, this is equivalent to a category 2 Hurricane. This storm came in at #6 in New York City's long list of major snow storms since records began.

Storm Total Snowfall Forecast Through Monday Afternoon

Weather synopsis: Saturday December 25

Merry Christmas!
12:50pm the National Weather Service has issued a slew of winter storm watches and warnings up and down the Atlantic coast in anticipation of a Nor'easter that is expected to impact the region with strong winds and significant snowfall. The combination of heavy snow along with strong gusty winds will produce blizzard conditions for many areas including Long Island and eastern New England; I expect blizzard conditions to impact New York City and coastal New Jersey as well. A low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico states will move east towards the Atlantic coast this evening. This low pressure system will strengthen off the coast of the Carolinas and then stream northward parallel to the east coast. With cold air already in place, the moisture associated with this storm system will produce a swath of heavy snow from the Carolinas to Maine. I expect this storm system to further intensify on its track up the coast; this will whip-up the winds right along the coast producing white out conditions and a bonafied blizzard for many. Snow will develop in New York City and Long Island from around noon time through early afternoon on Sunday. The snow will get steady and heavy during the late evening with the heaviest precipitation arriving during the overnight and lasting through the early morning hours on Monday. It is during this time frame when I expect the blizzard to be in full force for the New York City metropolitan area as winds will gust up and over 50 miles per hour. Snowfall totals will range between 8 inches to 1 foot from the Jersey shore to Long Island with many locations receiving well over 1 foot of snow. Snow will continue to fly through Monday morning before ending from southwest to the northeast as this storm system moves away from the region on Monday afternoon and evening. This Nor'easter will have a major impact on travel plans especially for area Airports as visibilities will go down to 1/4 mile or less for a good period of time. Many airlines have already canceled flight in anticipation of the snow that could pose a threat of icing. Road conditions will deteriorate rather quickly once the heavy snow and strong winds begin to impact the region on Sunday evening.

Weather synopsis: Thursday December 23

10:43pm a cold air mass continues to have a firm grip over the Northeast. Areas of light snow have been impacting coastal regions of the Northeast, these snow flurries are associated with the outer bands of a broad area of low pressure off the coast of New England. No snow accumulation is expected with this system however, I have been monitoring the potential for a significant snowfall to impact the coast this weekend into early next week. A storm system that has been inundating the Southwestern states will make its way across the country through the course of this week. This system will produce a swath of accumulating snow for the Midwest, severe thunder storms for the South and icy conditions for places in between. This mess of precipitation will work its way eastward by Christmas Day producing snow as far south as Atlanta; then a secondary area of low pressure will redevelop off the Southeast coast and depending on the track of this storm system we could have a messy situation in the Northeast on Sunday and Monday. This is a preliminary forecast that is subject to change based on new computer model data: A light snowfall will break out over New York City and Long Island during the afternoon hours on Sunday. The snow will get steadier overnight with the heaviest snow expected early Monday morning before tapering off Monday afternoon and evening. Snowfall totals will increase from west to east with the greatest amounts over Long Island and eastern New England. Generally between 6 inches to as much as 12 inches is certainly possible from this system, however, if the track of this storm veers just 50 miles to the east or west it could mean the difference between no snow to well over 1 foot of snow over the targeted areas. This potential Nor'easter is still days away and I reiterate, this is a preliminary forecast that is subject to change as the time frame approaches.

Weather synopsis: Sunday December 19

6:20pm the interstate 95 corridor along the Northeast has dodged a bullet as a potential Nor'easter has veered coarse taking a path further out in to the Atlantic Ocean than what computer models had anticipated earlier this week. This track will spare the big cities from a significant snow accumulation this time around. Several rounds of snow are possible this week for the entire Northeast as a series of clipper systems make their way from central regions of Canada down to the eastern United States with the potential for a big snow storm on Christmas Day. This weather pattern will continue to enforce the cold that is in place keeping our High temperatures in the 20s and 30s through the week. This week a rare astronomical event will stake place, not only will the winter solstice take place on Tuesday December 21 but, on that same day there will be a Lunar eclipse at approximately 3:15am. According to NASA, the last time that a Lunar eclipse occurred during a winter solstice was in the year 1638 over 370 years ago. Cloudy skies and Lake Effects Snow will likely obscure the eclipse along the Great Lakes. Better chances of observing the eclipse will be away from the lakes and generally south of New England.

Weather synopsis: Wednesday December 15

Weather synopsis: Monday December 13

8:18pm bitterly cold air temperatures along with strong and gusty winds are making it feel like an ice box across the Northeast. A storm system that impacted the region with milder temperatures and heavy rain this weekend has pulled away; in the wake of this storm system the coldest air mass since last January has infiltrated the Northeast, enough instability will be present to produce some light snow along the coast through early afternoon on Tuesday. Temperatures are running between 15 and 20 degrees below normal for this time of the year. The cold and wind over the relatively warmer waters of the Great Lakes are producing Lake Effect Snow over western New York State, western Pennsylvania and northeastern Ohio. Winter weather watches and warnings for Lake Effect Snow are in effect for most locations down wind of the lakes. A Lake Effect Snow warning is in effect for Buffalo until 6am Wednesday morning, between 10 and 16 inches of snow is expected with higher amounts south of Buffalo as well as regions down wind of Lake Ontario from Rochester to Syracuse where up to 3 feet of snow is possible. Lake Effect Snow will continue through Wednesday producing localized blizzard conditions along the New York State Thruway from Buffalo to Syracuse. The Lake Effect Snow should come to an end by Thursday and a period of tranquil weather will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Computer models are indicating that on Sunday December 19th a low pressure system could develop a long the Northeast coast. Depending on the cyclone genesis of this potential system, we could be dealing with a Nor'easter for the big cities of the Northeast from Washington to New York and Boston.

Weather synopsis: Sunday December 5

11:59pm a bitterly cold arctic air mass continues to spew in from central Canada. High temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal across the Northeast. This week, day time high temperatures will remain in the 30s along the coast with 20s for the interior. To add insult to injury, winds will make it feel much colder. Wind gust of up to 45 miles per hour will make it feel 10 to 20 degrees colder over New York City and Long Island. A persistent stream of cold air over the Great Lakes will produce several days of Lake Effect Snow. A slew of Lake Effect Snow alerts are in effect down wind of the lakes. The potential exist for a solid 1 to 2 feet of snow along the south shores of Lake Ontario from northern Niagara County eastward through Rochester and Syracuse. Buffalo should receive and additional 5 to 10 inches of snow by Tuesday morning with locally higher amounts, while south of the Greater Buffalo metropolitan area, Chautauqua County and Cattaraugus County between 2 to 3 feet of snow is likely. Lake Effect Snow can be expected through Tuesday before tapering off to scattered flurries Tuesday night; however, more Lake Effect Snow is on the horizon beyond Tuesday. Another round of impressive Lake Effect Snow will arrive late this week. As this cold air mass settles in and we progress through the deep freeze of winter, the jet stream will be oriented in a manner that is favorable for a "blockbuster type snow storm" for the entire Northeast - computer models are indicating that in the days and weeks to come it is very well possible to have 1 or 2 storm systems develop which could bring big snows along the coast from New England to the Midatlantic. Its beginning to look and feel a lot like Christmas, by December 25th it is likely we could have a white Christmas for nearly 50% of the entire continental United States.

December 1st - 2nd Lake Effect Snow Recap

Weather synopsis: Tuesday November 30

4:20pm a soaking rain is prompting concerns of flooding all along the Northeast as a storm system continues to creep in to the region. Along with the threat of floods, this system will likely produce severe thunderstorms on Wednesday along the coast. Expect heavy rain and strong winds to continue through the evening, The National Weather service has issued a wind advisory in effect Wednesday morning which includes New York City and Long Island; here, winds could gust up to 50 miles per hour. This storm system will continue to slowly move east on Wednesday, behind this storm a cold air mass will rush in to the region. Rain will mix with and eventually change over to snow across the interior Northeast. This provides a good indication of how cold it will be after this storm moves on by. On Tuesday temperatures are running in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees; on Wednesday behind the cold front, temperatures will run in the 30s and 40s. Accumulating snow is possible on Wednesday evening in Buffalo as the rain changes to snow, by Wednesday night between 1 and 3 inches of snow is possible here. Then from Wednesday night through Thursday Lake Effect Snow could develop producing additional snow accumulations down wind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday which includes the city of Buffalo. At this time, the most persistent snowfall is forecast to stay just south of Buffalo, however it is possible that this squall of Lake Effect Snow will be over Buffalo for a time producing a few inches of additional accumulation. Looking ahead, there is speculation that this weekend and beyond could host the coldest air mass since last winter with a good opportunity for snow across the entire Northeast next week, more details as the time frame approaches.

Weather synopsis: Sunday November 28

12:20pm a dome of High Pressure is dominating the weather across the east producing generally fair weather from Maine to Florida. Temperatures are forecast to moderate today and tomorrow, this should melt most of the snow from this weekend's Lake Effect. Reports of generally 2 to 4 inches of snow came in from Buffalo with higher amounts south of the city on the order of 5 inches to well over 1 foot. There will be a lull in the weather through Monday ahead of the next storm system, this next low pressure system will affect enter the Northeast on Tuesday bringing heavy rain and possible severe thunderstorms. By Wednesday, a cold air mass will rush in behind this system and will likely change the rain to snow before ending on Wednesday evening from Buffalo to Long Island. The cyclonic flow (counter clock wise) around this low pressure system will orient the winds over the Great Lakes and will likely initiate another round of Lake Effect Snow along the snow belt Wednesday through Thursday. Snowfall accumulations could be heavy in localized areas downwind of the lakes. Looking ahead in to the first weekend of December and beyond, forecast models are hinting towards the development of a storm system that could affect a good portion of the Northeast with heavy wind driven snow; it is still too early to say whether or not this will transpire, I will continue to monitor this situation as the time frame approaches.

Weather synopsis: Friday November 26

11:11am The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for counties down wind of Lake Erie which includes the city of Buffalo. The Lake Erie snow machine will spring to life for the first time this season. Cold, strong and gusty winds blowing over the relatively warm waters of the lake will initiate a narrow band of Lake Effect Snow that will affect western New York from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. This band of snow will likely produce a period of heavy snow from Buffalo southward. Locations where this band of snow is most persistent will likely see 1 to 2 feet of snow before it is all said and done; at this time, the greatest accumulations are expected to hit the southern suburbs of Buffalo (Dunkirk, Hamburg, Fredonia). The city of Buffalo its self is not out of the picture. This band of snow will produce snow fall rates of 2 to 3 inches of accumulation per hour; the snow squall will be over Downtown Buffalo from 7:00pm this evening thorough the early morning hours on Saturday. Snow totals in Buffalo could range between 5 inches to 1 foot by Saturday with the highest accumulations toward Downtown. Lesser amounts of snow can be expected as you head northward away from Buffalo, conversely, greater amounts of snow is likely south of Buffalo. Along with the snow, winds will be gusting up and over 45 miler per hour. This will cause near white out conditions at times due to blowing and drifting snow. The worst of the weather will hit Buffalo this evening and will linger though the very early morning on Saturday before diminishing through Saturday afternoon. Elsewhere across the Northeast, a storm system will be moving through producing showers of rain. In the wake of this system temperatures will once again take a tumble with highs around 40 degrees Fahrenheit on Saturday with clear skies along the coast.

Weather synopsis: Wednesday November 24

7:10pm a shift in the predominant weather pattern is underway for the eastern portion of the nation. Temperatures have dropped nearly 20 degrees since yesterday as a cold air mass continues to spill into the region. A storm system will be moving in on Thanks Giving day; precipitation will break out in the form of rain along the coast with pockets of freezing rain, sleet and snow across the interior valleys of the Northeast including portions of northern Pennsylvania and the southern tier of western New York State. Snow could mix in with the rain in Buffalo on Thanks Giving day as well. As this storm system passes on by, another shot of cold air will rush in behind it. This will initiate the first significant Lake Effect Snowfall of the season over the eastern shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario. For this reason, the National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch which includes the city of Buffalo from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Light snow will get steadier from noon time on over the lower Great Lakes region. At this time it is rather early to pinpoint the exact locations that will receive the heaviest of the snow accumulation, the potential exists for up to 2 feet of snow in a localized area with in the most persistent snow bands which appear to be just south of Buffalo and down wind of Lake Ontario. This will be the first accumulating snow across many areas since last winter, this would be a good time to winterize your vehicle in anticipation of a potentially major accumulating snow event in western New York.

Weather synopsis: Monday November 22

11:59pm today was a mild November day as temperatures climbed up to the 60s - Persistent showers and rumbles of thunder earlier on Monday affected a good portion of the Northeast; these were attributed to a warm front that swept the region and introduced a warm, moist air mass. The gears are in motion for a shift in the weather pattern as we progress through the course of the Thanks Giving week. This shift will occur in stages, the first of which will take place Tuesday. Unsettled weather will return to the Northeast as a cold front passes by, initiating heavy rain over western New York during the morning hours. This line of showers will work its way east through the day; behind the cold front temperatures will drop from the 50s and 60s to the 30s and 40s. A better day will be in store on Wednesday despite the cold temperatures. By the latter portion of the week, the next storm system will usher in the next stage in the weather pattern shift. On Thursday; Thanks Giving Day, temperatures will moderate somewhat and a chilly rain will break out across the Northeast a head of an approaching cold front. Once this secondary cold front passes on the evening of Thanks Giving, a strong and cold wind will be oriented over the Great Lakes producing the first wide spread Lake Effect Snow event of the season. An accumulating snowfall is likely east of Lake Erie on Friday with the steadiest snows expected to fall just south of Buffalo. The snow will fly through Saturday. A secondary Lake Effect Snow Squall will develop over Lake Ontario on Saturday and will likely produce the greatest amounts of snow accumulation over the Allegheny Plateau. The long range forecast for the month of December calls for a cold and snowy start to the month across the Northeast just in time for the end-of-semester hustle and bustle across most Colleges and Universities, the latter part of the month of December is looking to be moderating, temperature wise, before a deep freeze rounds up the end of the year.

Weather synopsis: Saturday November 20

12:46pm its been a cold end to the week after a stretch of warm weather that lasted from late last week through the first half of this week. The roller coaster temperature ride will continue as a warm air mass prepares to overtake the Northeast during the first half of Thanks Giving week. Temperatures will likely reach 60 degrees on Monday; the mild weather will be accompanied by rain. The rain will be associated with a cold front that will slowly creep towards the east coast through the course of week. Behind this cold front temperatures are much colder, in fact this has been the coldest air mass of the season so far with a deep winter like chill. The cold front will finally sweep through the Northeast by Friday. The forecast for Thanks Giving day calls for rain along the coast with a mixture of snow and rain away from the coast. On Black Friday, the cold front will clear the coast; though it will be very cold it should be a nice day for the Northeast with the exception of the lower Great Lakes region where Lake Effect Snow will develop.

Weather synopsis: Tuesday November 16

11:59pm the storm that was forecast to arrive late this week has arrived earlier than anticipated into a relatively warm air mass sparing the Northeast from a potential winter storm. However; this system has produced heavy rain through Tuesday evening and will continue on Wednesday before diminishing. As this low departs, winds will gust up to 45 miles per hour, for this reason the National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory through Wednesday evening for a good portion of the Northeast including Buffalo and New York City/ Long Island. Along with the gusty winds, temperatures will gradually cool down behind this system by Thursday and a narrow band of light lake effect snow showers could develop affecting western New York along the lower Great Lakes Thursday evening and Friday morning. Thanks Giving week is looking a little tricky as forecast models are in disagreement as to what might transpire. Nevertheless, it does appear as if after a very slight and brief warm up this upcoming weekend our temperatures will be on the downward trend.

Weather synopsis: Friday November 12

1:32am the stretch of fair weather perpetuates as a high pressure system continues to influence the weather over the Northeast. The pleasant weather is expected to last through Saturday, high temperature will top 60 degrees once again. Despite foggy conditions during the morning hours, the fog will lift and sunshine will overtake the sky by high noon. Nevertheless; we are now coming in to mid-November and these spells of warmth are short-lived. Forecast models are indicating that there will be a change in the weather pattern in the weeks approaching Thanks Giving. We will notice this change late next week as the first of perhaps multiple intrusions of cold arctic air interlopes in the Northeast. As per the current model data, there exists the potential of a storm brewing by late next, Thursday November 18th. There is a likelihood of an accumulating snow event over the Northeast. Though it is still too early to say for certain weather or not a winter storm is in the horizon late next week, air temperatures will be colder. In addition to the cold temperatures, the Jet-stream will be oriented in a way that will be favorable for wintry weather in time for the busiest travel period of the year.

Weather synopsis: Wednesday November 3

2:08am the brisk chill that has enveloped the Northeast has certainly reminded us that the anticipated winter season is well underway. On the evening of Halloween portions of the Northeast experienced a taste of winter as an upper level low pressure system produced enough instability with in the atmosphere to produce precipitation; the cold air mass in place across western New York was chilly enough to support a light mixture of Sleet/Snow/Rain for a duration of approximately 30 minutes to an hour. Now, atmospheric dynamics are in motion and yet another blast of cold air gets ready to be injected in to the eastern portion of the United States from the north. This shot of cold air will trail a cold front that will be moving south from Canada on Thursday November 4th. As this cold front plunges south, a Low Pressure System over the Gulf of Mexico states will ride along the Jet Stream. The Jet Stream will be oriented much like it would during a Nor'easter during the winter; the only difference is that, though it will be cold, the coldest air will not have reached the coast in time to support a significant snow event for the major cities of the Northeast. However, there is a good chance of seeing light snow flurries once this coastal storm pulls away. This will allow a dense cold air mass to infiltrate the Northeast from the north towards the south. Winds will be gusting between 35 and 45 miles per hour from Friday in to Saturday, this flow will be conducive for the development of Lake Effect Snow. These Lake Effect Snow squalls will likely reach all the way to the coast producing very light Snow Flurries perhaps in to New York City, at this time no accumulation is expected. As you head further north towards the Great Lakes, here it is likely to receive a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces and cars. There is the potential to see a few inches of snow in some regions along the Great Lakes where these Lake Effect Snow squalls are most persistent. The precipitation will persist through the day on Saturday November 6th before settling down. NCEP forecast models indicate that a warm up should follow this small winter blast early next week before yet another shot of cold air arrives towards the latter portion of next week.

Hurricane Season 2010: Update October 31

(Click Image To Enlarge)
The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is living up to predictions by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center. Since the Hurricane Season began in early June of this year there have been an above average number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. This year to date there have been 19 named tropical systems in the Atlantic; of these, 12 have reached Hurricane strength (winds equal to or greater than 74 miles per hour.) Out of these 12 Hurricanes, 5 have achieved Major Hurricane status (category 3 Hurricane or stronger). The 5 major Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year to date in chronological order are:

1- Hurricane Danielle August 21- August 31
Maximum sustained wind speeds: 135 miles per hour Category 4
Minimum central pressure: 942 millibars

2- Hurricane Earl August 25- September 5
Maximum sustained wind speeds: 145 miles per hour Category 4
Minimum central pressure:928 millibars

3- Hurricane Igor September 8- September 21
Maximum sustained wind speeds: 155 miles per hour Category 4~5
Minimum central pressure: 925 millibars

4- Hurricane Julia September 12- September 20
Maximum sustained wind speeds: 135 miles per hour Category 4
Minimum central pressure: 950 millibars

5- Hurricane Karl September 14- September 18
Maximum sustained wind speeds: 120 miles per hour Category 3
Minimum central pressure: 961 millibars

Weather synopsis: Tuesday October 28

2:19 pm a very impressive Low Pressure system is deepening over the northern Great Plains of the United States. This Low Pressure system is packing quite a punch; it has produced powerful storms that have ripped through major metropolitan regions like Chicago. Now, the cold front associated with this storm system; the same cold front that produced the damaging storms in Chicago is racing towards the east. Because of the dynamics of this storm, this line of strong storms will likely hold up as they approach western New York this evening. Ahead of this squall line of thunder storms gusty winds will blow from a south westerly direction. This will usher in a warm air mass today with temperatures likely topping out in the middle 70s. The force of the wind will increase as the front approaches by 6:00pm or 7:00pm this evening. This line of storms has already prompted Tornado watches and warnings over the Ohio River Valley. I would not be surprised if we see severe thunder storm advisories posted for western New York as the frontal boundary approaches. The stormy weather will then make its way to the Atlantic coast this latter this evening producing unsettled weather in to New York City; by the time these storms reach the coast. Like I mentioned before, the same front that will produce the unsettled weather is only one part of a much larger, more powerful Low Pressure System over the northern Great Plains. This storm will turn into a wind storm tomorrow over the Great Lakes with winds gusting over 40 miles per hour. Over the northern Great Plains, this system will produce blizzard like conditions for the first snow fall of the season for that region. Eventually this cold air mass will infiltrate the Northeast; the cold air mass will likely move in by Friday October 29th and will drop temperatures to near average levels. Until then however, temperatures will run in the 60s and 70s for day time highs.

Weather synopsis: October 20, 2010

10:47pm batten down the hatches, it is breezy out there to say the least. Winds will continue to howl through Thursday in excess of 40 miles per hour. In addition to the wind we will have to contend with precipitation over the lower Great Lakes. A Low Pressure System over the northern Great Lakes and southern Canada is working its way towards the east. This system will introduce a cold front in to the region. Rain will likely break out tonight across the lower Great Lakes and persist through the Thursday. Depending on the timing of the cold air and the duration of the precipitation, there is a possibility for the air temperatures in the upper atmosphere to be just cold enough to support a Rain and Snow mixture at the surface from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning so don't be surprised if you notice some snow falling tomorrow evening. What ever snow that does fall if any will be brief and should not accumulate. Nevertheless conditions will be hazardous, it would be advisable to give your self extra time when heading out. Rain will also develop towards the Northeast coast as the cold front progresses east towards the Atlantic. Here the precipitation will more than likely remain all rain. Temperatures tomorrow will be tumbling as the cold front will usher in a brisk air mass. Initially high temperatures across the lower Great Lakes will range in the 50s and 60's along the coast. Then as the cold front passes temperatures will begin to drop in to the 30s and 40s.

Weather synopsis: Saturday October 2

11:53am an area of low pressure is crossing over the Great Lakes today. This system is being enhanced by the relatively warmer lake waters compared to the chilly air mass setting in. Unsettled weather will over take the western New York region late tonight; the rain will get steadier towards Sunday morning and last through the early afternoon hours. This low pressure system will then redevelop off the east coast by Monday and produce more rain over regions that have been flooded during this past weeks deluge. Generally, expect a cool damp weekend for western New York State and expect plenty of sunshine along the Northeastern coast through Sunday then a cool damp rain will over take the entire Northeast for the majority of the week, sunshine should return on Thursday Obtober 7th.

Weather synopsis: Friday October 1

12:19pm a slew of flash flood and wind advisories are still in effect all over the Northeast as a bizarre weather pattern continues to introduce a stream of tropical moisture to the region. It seems as if the worst is over for a good portion of the eastern United States with the exception of New England where the heavy rain will continue today. It wont be until Saturday when this weather pattern finally shifts and allows a cool and dry air mass to infiltrate the region. This will be a brisk air mass and will likely produce the first frost and freeze advisories of the season for much of the Northeast signifiying the end of the growing season. It might be a good idea to start to bring any plants indoors for those of you with a green thumb. Highs will generally stay in the 50s for the most part with lows in the 30s and 40s, though it will generally be about 10° warmer along the coast for the coming week. At the moment we have no significant chance of precipitation this week but that could change as the weather is dynamic in nature and can change at a moments notice.

Weather synopsis: Wednesday September 29

12:10pm an unusual weather pattern has set up over the eastern United States. A High Pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean commonly referred to as the Bermuda High is acting as a blocking mechanism not allowing the Jet Stream to oscillate. This has produced a frontal boundary that is acting like a conduit for tropical disturbances; these tropical entities develop in the western Caribbean Sea then race northward up the eastern sea board. Currently Tropical Storm Nicole is one of those tropical entities that has developed and is expected to produce the next round of heavy rain. This feed of tropical moisture will likely produce flooding up and down the eastern United States; the significant threat for flooding has prompted flash flood watches and warnings from the Carolinas north to New York State and New England. The rain will overtake the region by Thursday and continue through Friday evening. Expect excessive amounts of precipitation and flooding. Also, due to the dynamics of the atmosphere producing strong gusty winds near 40 miles per hour combined with soaking rain some trees will easily topple over. In addition, the wind shear in the atmosphere could even produce an isolated Tornado or two. High temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s in the Northeast but will take a tumble by Saturday. As the frontal boundary finally moves away from the coast on Saturday it will usher in a cool air mass that should drop temperatures by 10°F to 20°F.

Weather synopsis: Tuesday September 28

11:55am THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE TRISTATE REGION INCLUDING ALL 5 BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY AND NASSAU COUNTY UNTIL 6:00PM. A parade of tropical disturbances will ride up along the east coast and will produce magnanimous amounts of rain for some areas through Friday. This weather pattern that has set up along the east coast will also produce strong rotation in the atmosphere and making conditions ripe for the development of Tornadic activity. Keep an eye to the sky and be prepared to seek shelter as we very well could see a repeat of the violent storms this past Summer.

Weather synopsis: Sunday September 26

8:41pm today was a lovely early Fall day with low relative humidity and temperatures, thou cool were comfortable. Tonight we'll drop down to the upper 40s for interior regions of the Northeast and 50s along the New England coast. An area of low pressure is developing over the Southeastern United States. This Low Pressure System is producing much needed rain for a good portion of the east. Tomorrow we will track this Low as it moves ever so slowly towards the north. As this system pinwheels northward it will generate a good amount of rain for much of the east through Wednesday. NCEP forecast models indicate that this will be a persistent weather pattern and should last through this week and perhaps into early next week. Though it is unlikely that we will receive torrential downpours every day this week, we will be dealing with at least a chance of rain through the weekend. Rain can be expected tomorrow especially during the evening going through Tuesday and early Wednesday.