When to Expect the “Warmest Day of the Year”

During the summer months, many areas in the United States approach their highest temperatures for the year. To give you a better idea of the warmest time of year for your area, NCEI has created these “Warmest Day of the Year” maps for the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. The maps are derived from the 1981–2010 U.S. Climate Normals, NCEI’s 30-year averages of climatological variables including the average high temperature for every day. From these values scientists can identify which day of the year, on average, has the highest maximum temperature, referred to here as the “warmest day.”

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Although the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth peaks at the summer solstice on June 21 in the Northern Hemisphere, temperatures for most of the United States tend to keep increasing into July. The temperature increase after the solstice occurs because the rate of heat input from the sun during the day continues to be greater than the cooling at night for several weeks, until temperatures start to descend in late July and early August.

But, this isn’t the case everywhere! The “Warmest Day of the Year” maps show just how variable the climate of the United States can be. For instance, the June values in New Mexico and Arizona reflect the North American Monsoon, a period of increased rainfall affecting the U.S. Southwest. Because these areas tend to be cloudier and wetter from July through September, the temperature is highest on average in June. Similarly, the persistence of the marine layer along the Pacific Coast leads to cool temperatures in early summer with the warmest days on average later in the season.

Temperature Normals are important indicators that are used in forecasting and monitoring by many U.S. economic sectors. Knowing the probability of high temperatures can help energy companies prepare for rising electricity demand and help farmers monitor heat-sensitive crops. They are also useful planning tools for the healthcare, construction, and tourism industries. You may want to check the Normals before planning your next event or vacation.

While the map shows warmest days of the year on average throughout the United States, this year’s actual conditions may vary widely based on weather and climate patterns. For prediction of your actual local daily temperature, and to see how it matches up with the Climate Normals, check out your local forecast at Weather.gov.

Significant Storm Possible Next Monday - Update Wednesday 2/26/14

This relentless winter continues its grip through this week, and will persist on into next week with more bitter cold and wintry precipitation. Snow this morning will give way to sunshine this afternoon, but it will remain cold with highs below the freezing mark. The cold temperatures will stick through the weekend with some snow flurries possible tomorrow afternoon. The sunshine will return on Friday, but it will be deceiving as it will be bitterly cold with high temperatures struggling to reach the lower 20s.

The next big storm that I will be monitoring will be on Monday, as a storm system will traverse the country and move into the dense arctic air mass in place over the Northeast. The storm will be riding on the southern branch of the jet stream and will bring much needed moisture to the state of California which has been enduring severe drought conditions, however though it will bring some drought relief this system will likely bring the threat of flash flooding and mudslides for Californians.

As this system pushes east, it will produce a slew of dangerous weather on its track ranging from severe thunder storms over the southern states to wintry precipitation over the Midwest and on into New England. As it stands, there is a potential for a significant snow accumulation for our area on Monday March 3rd. We are still several days away from this and better information will be available to fine tune this forecast.

Storm Total Snowfall Through Friday Morning

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Nationa Weathre Service's Storm Imapct Summary

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AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno Breaks Down This Weeks Potential Winter Storm 2/11/14

 

 National Weather Service Projected Snowfall Totals For
Thursday February 13th 2014
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Updated National Weather Service Total Snowfall Forcast

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The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Tri-state area, which is in effect until 7pm. A Rain/Snow mix began falling around 4am, and quickly changed over to a wet snow just in time for the morning rush hour. Snow will continue to fall through the early afternoon, and will begin to wind down during the evening rush hour, tapering off before 5pm this evening. As of 12 noon snow accumulations have averaged between 3 and 5 inches so far over Long Island and the five boroughs. An additional 2-4 inches will be likely before the storm pulls away from the area bringing the total snow amounts to 5-9 inches, with lesser amounts as you head north away from the city.

We will see a lull in precipitation during most of the day on Tuesday. However there will be yet another storm system moving into the area during the overnight hours on Tuesday night that is going to produce messy travel conditions on Wednesday. This next system is likely to bring more wintry weather with a potentially significant amount of snow and ice for the Tri-state area. For this reason, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Weather Synopsis: Sunday February 2nd 2014

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This is my first post in about six months, feels good to get back on the weather horse. I could not have picked a more fitting day to return than today, Groundhog Day. Earlier today in the town of Punxsutawney Pennsylvania Americas most famous meteorologist, a groundhog named Phil, has seen his shadow predicting six more weeks of winter. If tomorrows forecast is any testament to the groundhog's prediction then he's right on the mark. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for for the Tri-state area where up to 7 inches of snow are possible by tomorrow evening. A storm system will be moving in from the west spreading moisture into the Midatlantic and southern New England. Precipitation will initially fall as a mixture of rain and snow, however there will be just enough cold air in place that the precipitation will fall as a light to moderate wet snow. General snow accumulations will vary by location Expect 1-3 inches along the immediate coast and eastern Long Island, 4-6 inches for central and western Long Island, the five boroughs, and Westchester, and up to 7 inches as you head south and west away from the city. In terms of timing, precipitation will break out around 6 am just in time for the morning rush and gradually pick up in intensity through the early afternoon, ending by the evening rush hour around 5 pm.

Perseid Meteor Shower Peaks August 11 - August 14

Up to 100 meteors per hour can be observed at the height of the Perseid Meteor Shower this weekend into early next week. The best viewing times will be between midnight and sunrise from Sunday night August 11th through sunrise on Wednesday August 14th. If you plan on venturing out to catch the amazing streaks of light you can expect excellent viewing weather in the Northeastern US with clear skies during the optimal viewing times this weekend into early next week. Look to the northeast sky between midnight and sunrise on August 11th through August 14th and you can see up to 100 meteors per hour, that's roughly 1 to 2 meteor per minute or so.

A Brief Summer Temperature Synopsis

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Hurricane Season 2013 Update July 28th: The Remnants of Dorian

What once was Tropical Storm Dorian has come under the influence of strong westerly winds as it moved into the western Atlantic.

Despite moving over warmer waters, the strong wind shear aloft has weakened Dorian, becoming just a cluster of thunderstorms. The remnants  of Dorian will continue on a westward path bringing an elevated risk of tropical rains into the Greater Antilles including Puerto Rico, the island of Hispaniola and Cuba.

Eventually by mid-week if this area of showers and storms holds together it will bring precipitation into souther Florida.

Hurricane Season 2013 Update July 24, 2013: Tropical Cyclone Dorian

The fourth named tropical cyclone of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed, and is the first Cape Verde storm of the season. As of 5:00 pm Wednesday evening Tropical Storm Dorian is centered off the coast of Africa to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm is moving towards the West North West with a forward momentum of 20 miles per hour. Max winds are sustained at 50 miles per hour with gusts as high as 65 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure measured at 1002 millibars. The path of Dorian will be determined by a broad region of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. The clockwise flow around this high pressure system will provide the steering winds aloft that will continue to guide Dorian westward over the open waters of the Atlantic.

There are a few factors that are in place that will diminish how fast this tropical system strengthens through the course of the week. One of these factors will be the continuing influence of dry and dusty Saharan air that is being spread westward from the African continent by the same steering winds guiding Dorian, generally the influence of dry air keeps tropical systems from strengthening. Another factor that will keep Dorian from rapidly intensifying are the marginally warm waters of the open Atlantic. Tropical systems rely on warm ocean water temperatures in the 80s to rapidly gain strength, Dorian is currently over waters that are barely warm enough to support tropical development with waters in the lower to middle 70s. For the moment, one factor that is favorable for Dorian to at least remain of Tropical Storm intensity is that it is situated in a relatively low wind shear environment for the time being, this means that the storm isn't likely to be torn apart by strong winds aloft. I do expect this system to continue its westward trajectory through this week as a Tropical Storm.

Thereafter Dorian could become more organized as is moves in to warmer waters and threaten the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the timeframe of Sunday and Monday, however the storm could face stronger wind shear that could keep it from strengthening into anything major. I will continue to monitor this situation as it unfolds.

Rip Current Safety Video

Weather Synopsis: Wednesday June 26, 2013

The heat across the Northeast continues today as we brace for yet another 90+ degree day here in the New York City Metropolitan area. Along with the heat the humid air mass in place over the region will also give us the chance for pop-up thunderstorms in the evening.

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 The storms will become more wide spread I think overnight tonight, through the day on Thursday and on into Friday as a low pressure system moves into the region from the Ohio river valley. This system of low pressure will make the atmosphere more unstable, this will increase the chance of precipitation in our area through Friday. On the plus side, the increased cloud cover will keep the temperatures at bay in the 80 degree range, however it will still feel rather muggy as this humid air mass continues its grasp over the region. What about the weekend? well its looking muggy and wet, though not a complete washout there is a chance of rain with the greatest chance of precipitation on Sunday.

June 25, 2013 President Obama Speaks on Climate Change

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Weather Synopsis: Monday June 24, 2013

The first full week of summer is upon us and right on cue mother nature is responding by turning up the heat. The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory for all of New York City which is in effect through Tuesday. Temperatures today and tomorrow are expected to top off in the lower to middle 90s; when you factor in the humidity, heat indexes will feel more like the upper 90s to 100 degrees. The question, whats causing all this heat?  The answer, a high pressure system off the eastern seaboard over Bermuda; the clockwise flow around this system of high pressure is spewing in a sticky hot and humid air mass from the south.

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This air mass looks like it will be hanging around at least through the rest of the week as this Bermuda High will continue to pump hot and humid air up into the northeast. This heat and humidity will foster an environment favorable for the typical garden variety late day pop up thunderstorms giving us a chance of storms in the evening through the week.

Hurricane Season 2013: Tropical Cyclone Andrea

Already one week into the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1st, we have our first named tropical cyclone. As of 11:00 AM Tropical Storm Andrea is centered 160 miles to the east of Tampa moving to northeast at 14 miles per hour with maximum sustained wind speeds of 60 miles per hour gusting up to 70 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 997 millibars. Andrea is expected to continue producing heavy rain for the state of Florida along with the threat of isolated tornadoes embedded with in the heavier rain bands.

(Click Image to Expand) Tropical Cyclone Andrea Impacts Florida

The center of circulation is expected to make landfall  to the east of Tallahassee this evening after 5:00 PM eastern time. From there, the storm will weaken loosing its tropical characteristics as it accelerates in forward speed tracking up the east coast producing heavy rain from Georgia to Maine. Heavy rain from what remains of Andrea will impact the New York City metropolitan area on Friday, ending by the early morning hours of Saturday.

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NOAA's Spring 2013 Outlook For the United States

Lake Effect Snow Totals Through Friday Night

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20th Anniversary of the 1993 Superstorm dubbed the "Storm of the Century"

Comet Pan-STARRS Will Be Visible In The Evening Twilight Sky Through March 13th

NYC Metro Snowfall Forecast Thru 3/7

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Potential Nor'Easter for the NYC Metro Area this week 3/6 to 3/7

The National Weather Service in Upton, NY has posted a Winter Storm Outlook for the New York City Metropolitan area for the possibility of a coastal storm that could impact the region this week around Wednesday evening into the early hours of Thursday morning. A storm system currently impacting portions of the upper Midwest is  expected to move east towards the Midatlantic this week producing significant snows for a wide area along its path. This storm is forecast to strengthen off the south Jersey and Delmarva coast and produce a period of heavy rain that will be transitioning to a heavy wet snow along the Midatlantic including the Baltimore Washington and northern Virginia area on Wednesday. From this point, the track in which this storm takes will determine what impacts, if any, it will have on the New York City Metro area. If this system continues due east, impacts from this storm will be focused well south of NYC Metro. However, if this system takes more of a northeasterly track, there is the potential for significant snow accumulations as well as strong gusty winds and moderate coastal flooding for northern New Jersey, New York City, Long Island and extreme southern New England. At this time, forecast confidence for a big snow event over the NYC Metro is low, but any changes in the projected storm track can significantly change the forecast. Stay tuned!

10 Year Anniversary of the Presidents Day II Storm of 2003

This was one of the big weather events that stirred my interest in Meteorology.

Potential Nor'Easter Developing This Weekend

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A coastal low will be developing on Friday night and will track southeast of Long Island by Saturday night. At the moment there is a low probability that this low could bring significant snowfall from New York City  to eastern Long Island, there is a better chance that this low will track far enough off shore that it will bring little to no impacts to the region.

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The exact track as well as its timing of this storm will determine what impacts if any could be expected for the tristate area. Either way, some very cold air will be ushered in behind this system that will stick around for the duration of the weekend across the entire Northeastern US.

Winter Weather Advisory For Eastern Long Island in Effect Tonight

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6
AM EST THURSDAY.

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* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES ON LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...HIGHEST
  ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR 4 TO
  8 INCHES...ONLY IF HEAVY SNOW BANDING WORKS NORTH INTO THE AREA.

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* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. THERE IS A LOW
  PROBABILITY FOR ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES...ONLY IF
  HEAVY SNOW BANDING WORKS NORTH INTO THE AREA.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
  VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
  EXPECTED AFTER THIS EVENING RUSH INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH...ROADS
  WILL STILL BE SNOW COVERED.

Asteroid 2012 DA14 Fly-by on February 15th

Asteroid 2012 DA14 discovered in 2012 by a group of Spanish astronomers is expected to make a close approach to Earth on Friday February 15th 2013. So close in fact that it will pass between the Earth and our Geostationary satellite orbits. The asteroid, on its closest approach, will pass with in 18,000 miles of the Earth's surface making it the closet approach ever observed by NASA since they began monitoring near Earth objects in 1990. The asteroid is approximately half the size of a football field and will be visible with a telescope from eastern Europe, southeast Asia, and Australia. However due to its speed it will be difficult to detect by armature star gazers.

New England Blizzard Snowfall Totals and Peak Gusts

Below is a graphical depiction of the Snowfall  Totals after the blizzard:

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Connecticut:
Hamden - 40.0 inches
Milford - 38.0 inches
Clintonville - 37.0 inches
Oxford - 36.2 inches
East Haddam - 35.5 inches
Yalesville - 35.0 inches
New Haven - 34.3 inches
Gilford - 33.0 inches
Manchester - 32.0 inches

Maine:
Gorham - 35.5 inches
Berwick - 32.0 inches
Portland - 31.9 inches (All-Time Greatest Snowstorm)
Westbrook - 30.0 inches
Augusta - 28.0 inches
Lewiston - 25.5 inches

Massachusetts:
Framingham - 32.2 inches
Spencer - 31.0 inches
Northboro - 29.5 inches
Foxboro - 29.0 inches
Worcester - 28.7 inches (3rd Highest Storm Total)
Southwick - 28.3 inches
Saugus - 28.2 inches
Shrewsbury - 27.0 inches
Belmont - 27.0 inches
Logan Airport (Boston) - 24.9 inches (5th Highest Storm Total)

New Hampshire:
New Boston - 30.4 inches
Dover - 28.0 inches
Pelham - 24.0 inches
Concord - 24.0 inches
Laconia - 23.9 inches
Nashua - 22.0 inches
Hudson - 21.7 inches
Peterborough - 20.0 inches

New Jersey:
Rivervale - 16.8 inches
Hillsdale - 14.0 inches
Paramus - 14.0 inches
Verona - 14.0 inches
Chatham - 14.0 inches
West Milford - 13.2 inches
Oakland - 12.5 inches
East Rutherford - 11.5 inches
West Orange - 10.2 inches
Newark Airport - 10.0 inches
Point Pleasant - 9.0 inches

New York:
Medford - 33.5 inches
Upton - 30.9 inches
Central Islip - 30.7 inches
Commack - 29.1 inches
Huntington - 29.0 inches
Islip Airport - 27.8 inches
Port Chester - 23.3 inches
Yonkers - 23.0 inches
Ardsley - 23.0 inches
Scarsdale - 22.5 inches
Plainview - 18.0 inches
Middle Village - 15.0 inches
Bronx- 15.0 inches
Flushing - 11.0 inches
La Guardia Airport - 12.1 inches
Central Park - 11.4 inches
Upper West Side - 10.9 inches

Pennsylvania:
Lake Harmony - 7.5 inches
Pocono Lake - 8.0 inches
Allentown - 5.7 inches
Portland - 7.0 inches
Plainfield - 6.0 inches
Somerton - 4.7 inches

Rhode Island:
West Glocester - 27.6 inches
Burrillville - 26.0 inches
Woonsocket - 26.4 inches
Cumberland - 24.1 inches
Smithfield - 24.0 inches
Providence - 17.0 inches (Official report from T.F. Green Airport)
North Providence - 20.5 inches
West Warwick - 21.5 inches
Charlestown - 19.0 inches

Vermont:
Springfield - 16.0 inches
Chester - 14.0 inches
Waterbury - 14.0 inches
Barnet - 11.5 inches
Cornwall - 10.0 inches

Below are the peak wind gusts during the blizzard:

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Connecticut:
Westport - 82 mph
Portland - 81 mph
Groton - 60 mph
Waterbury - 48 mph

Maine:
South Thomaston - 62 mph
New Portland - 59 mph
Portland - 53 mph
Sanford - 49 mph
Augusta - 47 mph
Vinalhaven - 47 mph

Massachusetts:
Hyannis - 77 mph
Marstons Mills - 74 mph
Buzzards Bay - 74 mph
Mashpee - 72 mph
Scituate - 68 mph
Milford - 65 mph
Fall River - 63 mph

New York:
Plum Island - 75 mph
Hither Hills - 57 mph
Montauk - 52 mph
Islip - 48 mph
Eatons Neck - 47 mph

Rhode Island:
Jamestown - 68 mph
Warwick - 63 mph
Westerly - 43 mph

NYC Metro Area Snowfall Forecast Thru Saturday Moning

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The National Weather Service in Upton, NY has issued a Blizzard Warning for the entire New York City metropolitan area. As of 6pm Friday evening, precipitation has transitioned from rain and sleet to heavy snow across all of  New York City and Long Island conditions will begin to deteriorate as a storm system continues to intensify off shore. Total snow accumulations will range from over 12" across the city of New York to over 20" east towards eastern Long Island. Snowfall rates will begin to pick up in earnest through the evening, with peak snow fall rates as high as 2" to 4" per hour during the overnight especially across Long Island. Along with the heavy snow, as this storm system deepens winds will ramp up. At the height of the storm, sustained winds will range between 30 and 45 miles per hour with  gust as high as 60 miles per hour. High winds coupled with heavy snow will produce true blizzard conditions  reducing visibilities down below a quarter of a mile for extended periods of time. In addition, moderate coastal flooding  is expected in the Long Island Sound as persistent northeasterly winds pile up waters 3 to 5 feet above astronomical high tide along the north shore and east into the twin forks. Conditions will begin to improve significantly Saturday morning from west to east as the storm system finally begins to pull away from the area.

Significant Snow Threatens the Region Friday into Saturday

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A slew of winter weather advisories are in effect for the entire Northeastern United States from Friday into Saturday. Two storm systems are forecast to phase just off the southern shore of Long Island on Friday and morph into a larger, strengthening coastal storm that will bring the threat for significant snowfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding especially along the Atlantic coast from Long Island to the Gulf of Maine.

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 The first storm will begin to affect the western parts of the region on Friday morning as an Alberta clipper that is ridding on the polar jet stream moves east, slows down and begin to intensify. This will produce a period of heavy snow for the Great Lakes region from Buffalo to the Tug hill Plateau where 6" to as much as 12" of snow accumulations are possible by Saturday morning. This system is expected to interact and phase with a secondary storm system that is ridding on the sub-tropical jet stream some time during Friday evening just off the coast of the southern shores of Long Island. The exact timing of the phasing as well as the proximity of this storm to the coast will determine where the rain/snow line sets up which will govern the precipitation type in the New York City metropolitan area. Here precipitation will likely mix with and change over to all rain for a time before changing over to snow late Friday night and into early Saturday morning. The potential exists for 4" to as much as 8" of snow accumulation or greater for the New York City metropolitan area with the highest amounts east towards eastern Long Island. However if precipitation were to remain in the form of snow through out the event we could be dealing with snow accumulations ranging between over 12" in New York City to as much as 20" east towards eastern Long Island.

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 The big winner, or looser in terms of snow accumulations and storm impacts with this system will be southern New England including Providence, RI, Boston, MA and coastal Maine where as much as 20" and up to 30" of snowfall is expected along with strong gusty winds that will produce an all out Blizzard from late Friday into early Saturday. Snowfall rates in southern New England during the height of the storm are projected to be between 2" to 4" per hour! These kinds of snowfall intensities will halt all transportation, if you are driving in these conditions you WILL become stranded! Now is the time to prepare for this event, this storm will have MAJOR impacts on travel; you might want to reconsider any travel arrangements if you're planning on venturing out on the roads as conditions could become life threatening in these areas especially along the I-95 corridor from New York City to coastal Maine.