Tracking Tropical Cyclone Isaac (8/27)

Tracking Tropical Cyclone Isaac (8/26)

As of Sunday morning, Tropical Cyclone Isaac is currently at tropical storm intensity with maximum sustained wind speeds up to 65 miles per hour, only 9 miles per hour shy of hurricane intensity. Tropical storm forced winds of 39 miles per hour or greater associated with Isaac extend as far out as West Palm Beach, Florida. The center of circulation is just to the south east of the Florida Keyes. The strongest winds associated with Isaac will be felt in the most intense rain bands in the upper right hand quadrant of the storm. There is an elevated risk of flooding as well as tornadoes for all of south Florida as it is not uncommon for land-falling tropical systems to produce torrential rains and rain wrapped tornadoes. Unfortunately, conditions will get worst through the evening on Sunday before they begin to improve on Monday across southern Florida. Upper level winds are expected to steer Isaac into the open waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, an area that is favorable for strengthening. Isaac is expected to rapidly intensify to category 2 hurricane status with winds up and over 100 miles per hour. Isaac is expected to make a secondary land-fall some where along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, although there is uncertainty as to where the center of circulation will make land-fall the impacts will be wide spread as it is a fairly large circulation. Residents along the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana need to keep a close eye on this storm as this storm will pose a serious threat to life and property.

Friday July 3rd 2012

 From The National Weather Service...

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS...THIS WILL POTENTIALLY
RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES THAT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WOULD PROMPT A HEAT ADVISORY.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE. 

Warm temperatures to greet in the month of May

After a chilly past couple of days across the Northeast, a warmer and more humid air mass is set to usher in the month of May. Temperatures over the region have been running between 5F and 10F degrees below average, and in some cases into western New York, temperatures have been as much as 20F below the normal with Snow during the early part of last week. That is all about to change as temperatures could be hoovering near record high territories in some cases this up coming week. It will feel more like summer than spring for the entire region with temperatures into the 80's during the latter part of the week. A strong high pressure system over the region that has been responsible for the brilliant sunshine and the spectacular weather this weekend will be moving out towards the east of the region. This will produce a flow out of the south ushering in warmer and more muggy conditions. Temperatures will moderate to the middle 60's Monday and Tuesday with upper 70's and 80's for the rest of the week. Along with the warmth will come the humidity, enough so that we could experience instability with your typical garden variety air mass thunder storms during the afternoon hours. There after, indicators are pointing towards more seasonal temperatures and rain for the week of May 6.

Potential Storm Brewing for Sunday and Monday

A round of rain will swing by western New York State on Saturday with a cold front moving through the area; then a heavy drenching rain is on tap for Sunday night into Monday night for the Northeastern United States with the potential for heavy wet snow for western New York State down to western Pennsylvania and West Virginia especially for the higher elevations. A storm system will move up the coast and is expected to wind up off shore ushering in cold air behind it. Heavy rain is expected over much of the region on the order of 1 to 3 inches or better especially along the Atlantic coast including the big cities from D.C. to Boston, then away from the coast this rain could mix with and change over to wet snow for some interior portions of the Northeast. Given the anticipated high precipitation rates, if the air is just marginally cold enough some regions could pick up a significant amount of snow for this time of the year - most likely over the higher terrain of western New York, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia - while other areas in this highlighted region could pick a few inches of wet snow accumulation at the lower elevations from Buffalo, NY to the Finger Lakes region.

Buffalo Forecast April 14th

Buffalo forecast April 7th 2012

Buffalo Forecast April 2nd

Buffalo Forecast Thursday March 8th

A cold front moves through western New York bringing rain an colder temperatures. Rain could mix in with snow before tapering off late Thursday night. Low temperatures dropping to the upper 20's. It will be colder on Friday with Highs in the middle 30's. A quick moving storm system will produce some light snow showers that will be enhanced by the warmer lake waters. We could pick up a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow by Friday night. Low temperatures on Friday will dive down to the low 20's. And on Saturday, a much better day weather wise, but it will be cold; partly cloudy skies with a High in the middle 30's.

February 2012 European Temperature Anomalies

While February remained mild across the lower 48, Europe experienced its coldest temperatures in decades during a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. This graphic depicts the temperature anomalies observed across Europe and Asia during February courtesy of N.O.A.A.

Snowfall Totals Jan 19 - Jan 20

NEW YORK

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...

CHAPPAQUA: 7.0 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

THORNWOOD: 6.5 Inches 100 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MOUNT KISCO: 6.3 Inches 230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

ARMONK: 6.2 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

DOBBS FERRY: 6.1 Inches 400 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

YONKERS: 6.1 Inches 410 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

OSSINING: 5.5 Inches 1256 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MOUNT VERNON: 4.5 Inches 215 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

HARRISON: 4.5 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON: 4.5 Inches 200 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

WHITE PLAINS: 4.2 Inches 530 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

BRONXVILLE: 3.9 Inches 100 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...BRONX COUNTY...

FIELDSTON: 5.0 Inches 1210 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

BRONX ZOO: 4.2 Inches 1200 PM 1/21 BRONX ZOO

RIVERDALE: 4.0 Inches 1223 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

SOUNDVIEW: 3.8 Inches 1210 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...QUEENS COUNTY...

ASTORIA: 3.5 Inches 1245 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT: 3.4 Inches 100 PM 1/21 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

BAYSIDE: 2.0 Inches 1210 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

KENNEDY AIRPORT: 1.6 Inches 700 PM 1/21 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...KINGS COUNTY (BROOKLYN)...

SHEEPSHEAD BAY: 2.1 Inches 530 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY (MANHATTAN)...

CENTRAL PARK: 4.3 Inches 700 PM 1/21 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

UPPER WEST SIDE: 4.2 Inches 1200 PM 1/21 SPOTTER- W 85TH ST

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

ORIENT: 7.2 Inches 700 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SOUTHAMPTON: 6.0 Inches 906 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SOUTHOLD: 6.0 Inches 800 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

UPTON: 5.5 Inches 700 PM 1/21 NWS OFFICE

MASTIC: 5.4 Inches 303 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

CUTCHOGUE: 5.3 Inches 500 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

RIVERHEAD: 5.2 Inches 1220 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

SOUND BEACH: 5.2 Inches 1215 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

BAITING HOLLOW: 5.0 Inches 1258 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SHOREHAM: 5.0 Inches 554 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

EASTPORT: 4.8 Inches 1209 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

ST. JAMES: 4.7 Inches 1250 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

PORT JEFFERSON: 4.7 Inches 615 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MILLER PLACE: 4.5 Inches 530 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

SETAUKET: 4.5 Inches 1215 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MOUNT SINAI: 4.4 Inches 245 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

STONY BROOK: 4.4 Inches 300 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MEDFORD: 4.0 Inches 330 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

KINGS PARK: 3.7 Inches 330 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

CENTERPORT: 3.7 Inches 1230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

RONKONKOMA: 3.6 Inches 1246 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

ISLIP AIRPORT: 3.6 Inches 700 PM 1/21 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

BABYLON: 3.5 Inches 130 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

NORTHPORT: 3.0 Inches 300 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...

BAYVILLE: 5.3Inches 155 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

NEW HYDE PARK: 4.2 Inches 600 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

JERICHO: 3.3 Inches 600 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MASSAPEQUA: 3.2 Inches 600 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

SYOSSET: 3.0 Inches 800 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

BELLEROSE TERRACE: 2.3 Inches 230 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

CARLE PLACE: 2.3 Inches 1223 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

HEMPSTEAD: 2.3 Inches 1200 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WOODMERE: 2.3 Inches 200 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

LYNBROOK: 2.0 Inches 651 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ORANGE COUNTY...

TUXEDO PARK: 6.0 Inches 335 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

MONROE: 5.1 Inches 1233 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

WARWICK: 5.0 Inches 115 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MIDDLETOWN: 5.0 Inches 1221 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

HARRIMAN: 5.0 Inches 1259 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

BLOOMING GROVE: 4.8 Inches 326 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

GOSHEN: 4.8 Inches 100 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW HAMPTON: 4.5 Inches 110 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MONTGOMERY: 4.5 Inches 350 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

NEW WINDSOR: 3.9 300 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...PUTNAM COUNTY...

CARMEL: 6.0 Inches 211 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

MAHOPAC: 5.0 Inches 330 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

PUTNAM VALLEY: 4.6 Inches 200 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...ROCKLAND COUNTY:...

TALLMAN: 7.0 Inches 439 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

THIELLS: 6.0 Inches 205 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

VALLEY COTTAGE: 6.0 Inches 1205 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

STONY POINT: 5.8 Inches 1255 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW CITY: 5.4 Inches 130 PM 1/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

Jan 20 Northeast Snow Storm Late Friday Night and Saturday

The next clipper in a series of snow storms impacting the Northeast is forecast to arrive tonight into Saturday. Snow will overspread the region late Friday night and early Saturday morning; the snow will end from west to east late Saturday morning into the Saturday afternoon hours. The heaviest snow is expected along Interstate 80 from Pennsylvania to NYC and southern New England with accumulations in the order of 4 to 7 inches with locally heavier amounts in the mountains. Sleet and freezing rain could mix in with the snow for a time on Saturday afternoon in Long Island with the influence of the warm Atlantic Ocean, this could hold down snow accumulations. A general 1 to 4 inches of snow is expected along the New York State Thruway from Buffalo to Albany. After this storm system departs, a brief warm up early next week will melt most of the snow that has fallen making for a wet and slushy mess.

Snowfall Totals Jan 19

...ERIE COUNTY...

WILLIAMSVILLE: 4.0 Inches 540 PM 1/19 PUBLIC

SWORMVILLE: 3.5 Inches 749 PM 1/19 NWS EMPLOYEE

AKRON: 3.3 Inches 610 PM 1/19 FELL IN 2 HOURS

AMHERST: 3.1 Inches 515 PM 1/19 TRAINED SPOTTER

BUFFALO: 3.0 Inches 652 PM 1/19 PUBLIC

BUFFALO INTL ARPT: 2.9 Inches 600 PM 1/19 ASOS

WEST SENECA: 2.4 Inches 657 PM 1/19 PUBLIC

EAST AURORA: 2.1 Inches 645 PM 1/19 NWS EMPLOYEE

BLASDELL: 1.5 Inches 618 PM 1/19 FELL IN 1.5 HOURS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

NORTH TONAWANDA: 4.2 Inches 703 PM 1/19 COCORAHS

Jan 18: Parade of Snow Storms For The Northeast

A series of fast moving snow storms or clippers are taking aim at the Northeastern US over the course of the next several days. One of these storm systems is currently departing the Northeast, this system started as snow and sleet in the New York City metropolitan area on Monday night, then as temperatures moderated the rain moved in on Teusday. In the wake of this system an arctic air mass produced an outbreak of Lake Effect Snow that will last through the day Wednesday before shutting off in the early afternoon. The next system in the series of storms headed for the region will arrive on Thursday. This will be a quick hitting storm producing more of a nuisance snow from a coating to upto 3 inches of snow accumulations with greater amounts downwind of the lakes Erie and Ontario. Thereafter, yet another storm system will impact the Northeast on Saturday. This system could have a more pronounced impact in the region producing a more significant snowfall. From 3 to 6 inches of snow could fall north of interstate 80 and along the New York State Thruway. This system could also impact coastal regions along interstate 95 especially in New England with accumulating snow that could affect travel in the big cities. It is too early to tell how this system will manifest itself once it reaches the coast on Saturday, but the potential exists for troublesome snowfall. There are more storms on the horizon beyond this weekend along with outbreaks of cold arctic air with short intermittent warmth spells. Winter seems to finally be getting started, remember February and March tend to have their surprises.

Snowfall Totals Jan 13 - Jan 14

...ERIE COUNTY...

COLDEN: 15.1 Inches 700 AM 1/15 CO-OP OBSERVER

GLENWOOD: 16.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

COLLINS: 14.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

BOSTON: 13.5 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

COLDEN: 11.7 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

WEST SENECA: 10.7 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

EAST AURORA: 10.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

ELMA CENTER: 9.8 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

EDEN: 9.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 PUBLIC

WALES: 8.5 Inches 700 AM 1/15 CO-OP OBSERVER

BLASDELL: 8.5 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

KENMORE: 8.3 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

BUFFALO INTL AIRPORT: 8.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 ASOS

S AKRON: 7.7 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

NE TONAWANDA: 7.1 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

WILLIAMSVILLE: 8.5 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

HAMBURG: 7.0 Inches 700 AM 1/15 PUBLIC

LANCASTER: 6.5 Inches 700 AM 1/15 NWS EMPLOYEE

CLARENCE CENTER: 4.6 Inches 700 AM 1/15 COCORAHS

Friday's Storm Could Be An Overachiever

Wintry weather will return to western New York begining early Friday morning. A large storm system resposible for Thursday's rain will lead a big push of arctic air that will swing through the region Thursday night into Friday. This arctric air mass over the open waters of the lakes will produce Lake Effect Snow mainly south of Buffalo Friday and Saturday. The Lake Snows will be enhanced by an upper level low that will be swinging through from western PA through western NY. There is a good likelyhood that this upper low feature will produce a period of heavier snow for all of western New York on Friday from 4:00AM through about 1:00PM. A general 4 to 8 inches of snow can be expected with higher amounts from Lake Effect Snow that will develop down wind of Lake Erie mainly south of Buffalo and down wind of Lake Ontario into Rochester. Travelalong the NYS Thruway will be a mess with heavy snow and gusty winds.

Big Time Lake Effect Snow To Ring In 2012

The National Weather Service in Cheektowaga, NY has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for western New York State downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario beginig Sunday evening January 1st. This is in anticipation of a sharp cold front that is swinging through the region. Ahead of the front temperatures will soar into the upper 40's while behind the front temperatures will be in the teens and twenties. This artic blast will be accompanied by Gale force winds in excess of 40 miles per hour with gusts as high as 65 miles per hour. The cold wind over the unfrozen, relatively warm lake waters is expected to produce the first significant Lake Effect Snow event of this winter season. Initially rain will fall, quickly changing to snow after the passage of the cold front late Sunday afternoon. Heavy snow in combination with strong winds will produce blizzard conditions with significant blowing and drifting snow and near zero visibilities. Snowfall rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected with in the lake snow bands. In Buffalo, the heaviest snow should fall Sunday evening through early Monday morning with a secondary round of snow expected on Wednesday. Snow accumulations could range between 4 inches to 1 foot by the time the snow subsides on Wenesday evening from Niagara Falls to the Buffalo south towns. Areas south of Buffalo as well as downwind of Lake Ontatario could recieve between 1 and 3 feet of snow by Wenesday evening. In addition to the snow and wind, the strong gales are expected to produce a surge of water along the leeward lake shores leading to coastal flooding.

Prospects For Snow Tuesday Night

The Northeastern US has been under a snow drought this season. Temperatures have been running well above normal through the fall and so far through the winter as well. This time last year we were dealing with much colder temperatures and the monster blizzard along the coast that paralyzed the megalopolis from D.C. to Philly, NYC and Boston. This year however, we haven't had much to talk about in the way of snow and cold. However, it does appear as if that is slowly about to change as several opportunities for snow are on the horizon for the Northeast over the next two weeks. I'm monitoring a storm system that will enter the picture on Tuesday producing rain for the Northeast along the coast; temperatures should be cold enough away from the coast across interior sections of the Northeast that rain can change to snow on Tuesday night. While a steady rain will fall east of Interstate 81 from eastern Pennsylvania to the Atlantic coast, snow can be expected across western Pennsylvania and upstate New York into northern New England. 1-3 inches of snow will be common across western New York and Pennsylvania with higher amounts between 6-12 inches across the higher terrain of northern New York State and Vermont by Wednesday morning as the storm system moves away from the region leaving behind a much colder air mass in its wake.

Snowfall Totals 12/09/11

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************


NEW YORK

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

--DUNKIRK: 2.0 inches 1010 PM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ERIE COUNTY...

--NW AMHERST: 3.0 inches 1100 AM 12/09 WIVB

--E AMHERST: 2.7 inches 1100 AM 12/09 NWS EMPLOYEE

--NNE TONAWANDA: 2.5 inches 1207 PM 12/09 COCORAHS

--S AKRON: 2.4 inches 1043 PM 12/09 COCORAHS

--S DERBY: 2.0 inches 720 PM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

--NORTH TONAWANDA: 4.3 inches 1201 AM 12/10 CO-OP OBSERVER

--NNW NORTH TONAWAND: 3.9 inches 1044 PM 12/09 COCORAHS

--ENE LOCKPORT: 3.9 inches 1030 AM 12/09 COCORAHS

--SSW SANBORN: 3.5 inches 1125 AM 12/09 PUBLIC

--NIAGARA FALLS INTL A: 3.3 inches 100 PM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER

--SSE SOUTH LOCKPORT: 3.0 inches 700 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

--SANBORN 3.0 inches 420 PM 12/09 PUBLIC

--NE LOCKPORT: 2.5 inches 625 AM 12/09 COCORAHS

--NORTH HARTLAND: 2.0 inches 815 AM 12/09 WIVB

A Meteorological Bust

The Lake Effect snow that was anticipated from Thursday through Friday was a meteorological bust to say the least. Snow accumulations ranged between 1.2 inches at the airport to 3.9 inches in Niagara Falls, a far cry from the 9.0+ inches that were forecast initially. The National Weather Service in Cheektowaga had to down grade its Lake Effect Snow Warning to an Advisory on Friday morning after less favorable Lake Effect conditions became apparent. The Lake Effect snow did not get cranking until around 6:00AM Friday morning; nearly eight hours later than anticipated, and it was confined to Niagara county and the Buffalo north towns for the most part. Accumulations were limited mainly to grassy surfaces and automobiles. Nevertheless, this was the first wide spread snow event of the season for the snow deprived city of Buffalo. Lake Erie is still fairly warm, the latest observations measured a lake temperature of 45 degrees Fahrenheit, well above average for this time of the year. I have a hunch that we are not done with Lake Effect Snow just yet.

EF2 Tornado Near Fredonia, NY on 11/14/11

Click Image To Enlarge

Hybrid Storm System Update 11/10

Tropical Storm Sean has developed over the Atlantic. This was a hybrid storm initially that developed off of a Mid-latitude Cyclone that acquired Tropical Storm characteristics over the warm subtropical waters of the Atlantic off the Southeastern US coast, north of the greater Antilles. An elevated rip current threat and rough surf can be expected from the east coast of Florida to the outer banks of North Carolina. This system is forecast to loose its tropical characteristics, becoming extra tropical as it moves into the cooler waters of the north Atlantic Ocean. A part of this storm's energy will be absorbed by a strong cold front that will move east on Thursday November 10th. This phase between systems will likely enhance precipitation over eastern New England on Veterans Day this Friday November 11. Tropical Storm Sean is the 18th named system so far to spawn from the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

October Nor'easter Snowfall Totals

Connecticut

--Bristol: 17.0 inches

--East Farmington Heights: 13.0 inches

--Manchester: 9.0 inches

New Hampshire

--Hillsboro: 21.5 inches

--Peterborough: 24.0 inches

--Jaffrey: 31.4 inches

Maine

--Bridgton: 17.5 inches

--Gray: 12.9 inches

--Otisfield: 14.0 inches

Massachusetts

--Plainfield: 30.8 inches

--Ashfield: 25.5 inches

--Worthington: 24.0 inches

--Goshen: 25.0 inches

New York

--Harriman: 16.0 inches

--Armonk: 12.5 inches

--Yankee Lake: 16.5 inches

--White Plains: 7.5 inches

--Yonkers: 7.0 inches

--Bronx: 6.0 inches

--Massapequa: 3.28 inches

--Central Park: 2.9 inches

--Ronkonkoma: 1.90 inches

Pennsylvania

--Laurel Summit: 12.2 inches

--Freeland: 13.0 inches

--Mount Cobb: 12.7 inches

--Hazeleton: 16.0 inches

New Jersey

--West Milford: 19.0 inches

--North Caldwell: 12.0 inches

--Ringwood: 10.5 inches

Northeast Snowtober?

Rumors of snow are running rampant over the Northeastern US. Its hard to believe that accumulating snow can fall in the month of October in the Northeast but that is what is in the forecast. A dynamic weather pattern that is more typical for December is taking precedence beginning with the passage of a cold front that is ushering in a much colder air mass. This is changing rain to snow across interior sections of the Northeast on Thursday October 27th. Snow accumulations on the order of around 3 inches can be expected over northern Pennsylvania, central New York State and into central New England with greater amounts over the higher elevations. Rain is expected elsewhere in the Northeast during this time. This first system moves out by Friday October 28th leaving behind a dense cold air mass over the region. This will set the stage for a secondary storm scenario on Saturday that could produce a heavy wet accumulating snow over the megalopolis along the I-95 corridor of the Northeast.

A storm system responsible for dumping over 6 inches of wet snow in Denver will race eastward along the polar Jet stream. This storm is forecast to rapidly intensify off the Midatlantic coast on Saturday. With cold air already in place this could set the stage for an early snow storm on Saturday night from Washington DC to Boston. Details of the exact track of this potential storm are rather uncertain at this point, but I think there will be rain to start. Then as this system strengthens enough cold air will be dragged in to change the precipitation to a heavy wet snow all the way down to the coast. With the convection anticipated with this storm system, thunder and lightning will also accompany the precipitation. The potential for up to 6 inches of snow for New York City and western Long Island is not out of the question. If this transpires, expect widespread power outages as most trees are still wearing their leaves, when you add this heavy wet snow and 40 miles per hour wind gusts these trees will come down knocking out power for many residents.

Hurricane Rina Update 10/25/11

Hurricane Rina, the 17th named system and the 5th hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season is churning over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea. Rina is on the precipice of category 2-3 intensity on the Saffir-simpson hurricane scale with a minimum central pressure of 970 millibars and maximum sustained wind speeds of 110 miles per hour as of the 7pm advisory on October 25th from the National Hurricane Center. The forecast is for a strengthening system as it crawls north westward towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Rina is expected to have a direct impact on the Yucatan on Thursday October 27th. There after, Rina is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico where it will pose a threat to central and southern Florida. There are uncertainties on the track of Rina as it could plow into south Florida or loop south towards Cuba. Either way, Hurricane Rina is expected to move into an unfavorable region in the Gulf of Mexico where it will encounter strong wind shear aloft, this will prevent Rina form maintaining strength and even weaken the system all together from a hurricane down to a tropical storm.

The State of The Hurricane Season

The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season has unfolded to be an active one for tropical storm formation. To date, a total 16 named storms have been tallied over the Atlantic Ocean, 5 of these reached Hurricane strength. The following is a list of Hurricanes of the 2011 season in chronological order:

1- Hurricane Irene (08/20-08/29) Maximum sustained wind speeds of 120 miles per hour and a minimum central pressures of 942 millibars, a category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. Hurricane Irene is the landmark storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season due to its direct impact to the eastern United States. Hurricane Irene affected the Greater Antilles as a slow moving Tropical Storm producing torrential rains over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The storm gained strength and made a direct landfall over the Bahamas as a category 2-3 Hurricane. Hurricane Irene made its first landfall in the U.s. over the coast of North Carolina as a category 2 storm. The storm made a second and third landfall over the Jersey shore and New York harbor as a category 1 storm. The storm claimed over 40 lives, damages are estimated to range in the billions.

2- Hurricane Katia (08/29-09/10) Maximum sustained wind speeds of 135 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 946 millibars, a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. Hurricane Katia was largely a marine interest as this storm system remained well away from any land. The storm did produce large swells up and down the east coast of the U.S. as it moved over the open waters of the North Atlantic.

3- Hurricane Maria (09/06-09/16) Maximum sustained wind speeds of 80 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 979 millibars, a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. The storm impacted the Lesser Antilles with tropical rained and storm force winds. The storm gained strength as it moved in to a more favorable region in the Atlantic side swiping Bermuda with rain and gusty winds. Eventually as the storm lost its tropical characteristics it impacted Nova Scottia as an extra tropical storm.

4- Hurricane Ophelia (09/21-10/03) Maximum sustained wind speeds of 140 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 940 millibars, a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. Hurricane Ophelia in the strongest storm to spawn from the 2011 Hurricane season. Ophelia impacted the Lesser Antilles as a storm before curving sharply towards the north. The storm intensified rapidly to a category 4 barely missing Bermuda to the east. Hurricane Ophelia became extra tropical over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic and made landfall over Nova Scottia.

5- Hurricane Philippe (09/24-10/08) Maximum sustained wind speeds of 90 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 976 millibars. This storm was largely influenced by upper level winds as it meandered about over the open waters of the Atlantic. The storm was ultimately sheered apart by front and eventually dissipated.

Eventhough we have passed the peak of the Hurricane season, we can still expect development in the tropics well through October and November. Forecast models indicate trpocal storm development is still likely as we progress through late October.

Cyclone Genesis of Irene 2011

Tropical Cyclone Irene

Tropical Cyclone Irene is expected to make landfall over the Carolinas this weekend as a major Hurricane, it is anticipated to reach category 3 classification on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale, a major Hurricane with winds as high as 130 miles per hour and significant storm surge. The storm will accelerate, racing up the east coast of the United States as it encounters the Gulf Stream. Tropical Storm and Hurricane force gales will impact the eastern seaboard this weekend into early next week from the Carolinas to Long Island, Cape Cod and perhaps Maine. Major Hurricane wind damage is expected across coastal North Carolina. After Irene makes landfall over eastern North Carolina the storm will weaken some what taking aim at Long Island as a full blown Category 1 or 2 Hurricane. Winds blowing 50 miles per hour or better are anticipated from the Jersey shore to eastern Long Island where the strongest wind gusts will blow up to 100 miles per hour. This will be a particularly dangerous situation because the potential wind damage will be amplified by the wide spread flooding possibility. This storm system will generate up to one foot of rain over already saturated grounds. The supersaturated ground will weaken many trees at their roots, easily topping over in winds over 50 miles per hour. There is a high potential for wide spread flooding and long periods of power outages. The time to prepare is now, especially if you live in a flood prone area. The most severe conditions will be felt along the coast. Significant beach erosion, high surf, and a 4-10 foot storm surge will lead to major coastal flooding from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod including coastal New Jersey, New York Harbor,the Long Island Sound, the Harlem, East and Hudson Rivers in New York City - and especially the south shore of Long Island - Jamaica Bay, the Rockaways, Long Beach, Robert Moses Beach, Fire Island, the Great South Bay, Smith's Point, Moriches, the Hamptons, Shelter Island and Montauk Point.

Tropical Cyclone Emily

Phoenix Sandstorm - July 5, 2011

A massive sandstorm engulfed the city of Phoenix in Arizona on Tuesday July 5th. Although sandstorms are not uncommon in that region,the dimensions of this particular event were staggering. This massive wall of sand reached a height of over 5,280 feet into the atmosphere and a maximum width extending nearly 100 miles reducing visibilities to zero. The ongoing drought in the south western United States has contributed to this phenomenon. Strong downdrafts associated with a thunderstorm complex that had developed to the east of the city of Phoenix that evening picked up this mass of dust and sand more than one mile high. 60 mile per hour winds rolled the screen of sand a distance over 150 miles enveloping everything in its path.