10 Year Anniversary of the Presidents Day II Storm of 2003

This was one of the big weather events that stirred my interest in Meteorology.

Potential Nor'Easter Developing This Weekend

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A coastal low will be developing on Friday night and will track southeast of Long Island by Saturday night. At the moment there is a low probability that this low could bring significant snowfall from New York City  to eastern Long Island, there is a better chance that this low will track far enough off shore that it will bring little to no impacts to the region.

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The exact track as well as its timing of this storm will determine what impacts if any could be expected for the tristate area. Either way, some very cold air will be ushered in behind this system that will stick around for the duration of the weekend across the entire Northeastern US.

Winter Weather Advisory For Eastern Long Island in Effect Tonight

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6
AM EST THURSDAY.

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* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES ON LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...HIGHEST
  ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR 4 TO
  8 INCHES...ONLY IF HEAVY SNOW BANDING WORKS NORTH INTO THE AREA.

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* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. THERE IS A LOW
  PROBABILITY FOR ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES...ONLY IF
  HEAVY SNOW BANDING WORKS NORTH INTO THE AREA.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
  VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
  EXPECTED AFTER THIS EVENING RUSH INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH...ROADS
  WILL STILL BE SNOW COVERED.

Asteroid 2012 DA14 Fly-by on February 15th

Asteroid 2012 DA14 discovered in 2012 by a group of Spanish astronomers is expected to make a close approach to Earth on Friday February 15th 2013. So close in fact that it will pass between the Earth and our Geostationary satellite orbits. The asteroid, on its closest approach, will pass with in 18,000 miles of the Earth's surface making it the closet approach ever observed by NASA since they began monitoring near Earth objects in 1990. The asteroid is approximately half the size of a football field and will be visible with a telescope from eastern Europe, southeast Asia, and Australia. However due to its speed it will be difficult to detect by armature star gazers.

New England Blizzard Snowfall Totals and Peak Gusts

Below is a graphical depiction of the Snowfall  Totals after the blizzard:

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Connecticut:
Hamden - 40.0 inches
Milford - 38.0 inches
Clintonville - 37.0 inches
Oxford - 36.2 inches
East Haddam - 35.5 inches
Yalesville - 35.0 inches
New Haven - 34.3 inches
Gilford - 33.0 inches
Manchester - 32.0 inches

Maine:
Gorham - 35.5 inches
Berwick - 32.0 inches
Portland - 31.9 inches (All-Time Greatest Snowstorm)
Westbrook - 30.0 inches
Augusta - 28.0 inches
Lewiston - 25.5 inches

Massachusetts:
Framingham - 32.2 inches
Spencer - 31.0 inches
Northboro - 29.5 inches
Foxboro - 29.0 inches
Worcester - 28.7 inches (3rd Highest Storm Total)
Southwick - 28.3 inches
Saugus - 28.2 inches
Shrewsbury - 27.0 inches
Belmont - 27.0 inches
Logan Airport (Boston) - 24.9 inches (5th Highest Storm Total)

New Hampshire:
New Boston - 30.4 inches
Dover - 28.0 inches
Pelham - 24.0 inches
Concord - 24.0 inches
Laconia - 23.9 inches
Nashua - 22.0 inches
Hudson - 21.7 inches
Peterborough - 20.0 inches

New Jersey:
Rivervale - 16.8 inches
Hillsdale - 14.0 inches
Paramus - 14.0 inches
Verona - 14.0 inches
Chatham - 14.0 inches
West Milford - 13.2 inches
Oakland - 12.5 inches
East Rutherford - 11.5 inches
West Orange - 10.2 inches
Newark Airport - 10.0 inches
Point Pleasant - 9.0 inches

New York:
Medford - 33.5 inches
Upton - 30.9 inches
Central Islip - 30.7 inches
Commack - 29.1 inches
Huntington - 29.0 inches
Islip Airport - 27.8 inches
Port Chester - 23.3 inches
Yonkers - 23.0 inches
Ardsley - 23.0 inches
Scarsdale - 22.5 inches
Plainview - 18.0 inches
Middle Village - 15.0 inches
Bronx- 15.0 inches
Flushing - 11.0 inches
La Guardia Airport - 12.1 inches
Central Park - 11.4 inches
Upper West Side - 10.9 inches

Pennsylvania:
Lake Harmony - 7.5 inches
Pocono Lake - 8.0 inches
Allentown - 5.7 inches
Portland - 7.0 inches
Plainfield - 6.0 inches
Somerton - 4.7 inches

Rhode Island:
West Glocester - 27.6 inches
Burrillville - 26.0 inches
Woonsocket - 26.4 inches
Cumberland - 24.1 inches
Smithfield - 24.0 inches
Providence - 17.0 inches (Official report from T.F. Green Airport)
North Providence - 20.5 inches
West Warwick - 21.5 inches
Charlestown - 19.0 inches

Vermont:
Springfield - 16.0 inches
Chester - 14.0 inches
Waterbury - 14.0 inches
Barnet - 11.5 inches
Cornwall - 10.0 inches

Below are the peak wind gusts during the blizzard:

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Connecticut:
Westport - 82 mph
Portland - 81 mph
Groton - 60 mph
Waterbury - 48 mph

Maine:
South Thomaston - 62 mph
New Portland - 59 mph
Portland - 53 mph
Sanford - 49 mph
Augusta - 47 mph
Vinalhaven - 47 mph

Massachusetts:
Hyannis - 77 mph
Marstons Mills - 74 mph
Buzzards Bay - 74 mph
Mashpee - 72 mph
Scituate - 68 mph
Milford - 65 mph
Fall River - 63 mph

New York:
Plum Island - 75 mph
Hither Hills - 57 mph
Montauk - 52 mph
Islip - 48 mph
Eatons Neck - 47 mph

Rhode Island:
Jamestown - 68 mph
Warwick - 63 mph
Westerly - 43 mph

NYC Metro Area Snowfall Forecast Thru Saturday Moning

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The National Weather Service in Upton, NY has issued a Blizzard Warning for the entire New York City metropolitan area. As of 6pm Friday evening, precipitation has transitioned from rain and sleet to heavy snow across all of  New York City and Long Island conditions will begin to deteriorate as a storm system continues to intensify off shore. Total snow accumulations will range from over 12" across the city of New York to over 20" east towards eastern Long Island. Snowfall rates will begin to pick up in earnest through the evening, with peak snow fall rates as high as 2" to 4" per hour during the overnight especially across Long Island. Along with the heavy snow, as this storm system deepens winds will ramp up. At the height of the storm, sustained winds will range between 30 and 45 miles per hour with  gust as high as 60 miles per hour. High winds coupled with heavy snow will produce true blizzard conditions  reducing visibilities down below a quarter of a mile for extended periods of time. In addition, moderate coastal flooding  is expected in the Long Island Sound as persistent northeasterly winds pile up waters 3 to 5 feet above astronomical high tide along the north shore and east into the twin forks. Conditions will begin to improve significantly Saturday morning from west to east as the storm system finally begins to pull away from the area.

Significant Snow Threatens the Region Friday into Saturday

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A slew of winter weather advisories are in effect for the entire Northeastern United States from Friday into Saturday. Two storm systems are forecast to phase just off the southern shore of Long Island on Friday and morph into a larger, strengthening coastal storm that will bring the threat for significant snowfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding especially along the Atlantic coast from Long Island to the Gulf of Maine.

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 The first storm will begin to affect the western parts of the region on Friday morning as an Alberta clipper that is ridding on the polar jet stream moves east, slows down and begin to intensify. This will produce a period of heavy snow for the Great Lakes region from Buffalo to the Tug hill Plateau where 6" to as much as 12" of snow accumulations are possible by Saturday morning. This system is expected to interact and phase with a secondary storm system that is ridding on the sub-tropical jet stream some time during Friday evening just off the coast of the southern shores of Long Island. The exact timing of the phasing as well as the proximity of this storm to the coast will determine where the rain/snow line sets up which will govern the precipitation type in the New York City metropolitan area. Here precipitation will likely mix with and change over to all rain for a time before changing over to snow late Friday night and into early Saturday morning. The potential exists for 4" to as much as 8" of snow accumulation or greater for the New York City metropolitan area with the highest amounts east towards eastern Long Island. However if precipitation were to remain in the form of snow through out the event we could be dealing with snow accumulations ranging between over 12" in New York City to as much as 20" east towards eastern Long Island.

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 The big winner, or looser in terms of snow accumulations and storm impacts with this system will be southern New England including Providence, RI, Boston, MA and coastal Maine where as much as 20" and up to 30" of snowfall is expected along with strong gusty winds that will produce an all out Blizzard from late Friday into early Saturday. Snowfall rates in southern New England during the height of the storm are projected to be between 2" to 4" per hour! These kinds of snowfall intensities will halt all transportation, if you are driving in these conditions you WILL become stranded! Now is the time to prepare for this event, this storm will have MAJOR impacts on travel; you might want to reconsider any travel arrangements if you're planning on venturing out on the roads as conditions could become life threatening in these areas especially along the I-95 corridor from New York City to coastal Maine.