The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is shaping up to be extremely active as of late. Parades of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes have been forming from tropical waves off the African coast with high frequency. Climatologically speaking this is the average peak time of the year for Tropical Storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean. So far this season we’ve had 9 tropical systems forming in the Atlantic of which 7 of these have achieved Tropical Storm status. Of these 7 Tropical Storms we’ve had 3 Hurricanes, 2 of which have achieved Major Hurricane status of Category 3 or better. This Hurricane Season is not showing any signs of slowing down any time soon; currently there are 3 tropical systems that we are monitoring in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona, and Tropical Storm Gaston. Our most immediate concern right now is Hurricane Earl. As of the 8:00am advisory from the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Earl is positioned approximately 850 miles south of New York City, 900 miles south of Montauk Point in Long Island just east of the Florida Georgia state boarder. Maximum sustained winds have been recorded at 145 miles per hour making this a very powerful storm at Category 4 status. Earl is moving towards the north north west with a forward speed of 18 miles per hour taking an express route towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for the North Carolina coast; Hurricane Watches have been issued for the Delmarva Peninsula and for Cape Cod in Massachusetts. In addition to the Hurricane advisories, the National Weather Service has also issued Tropical Storm Warnings from the North Carolina and Virginia state boarder north to Long Island as well as Tropical Storm Watches from Plymouth, Massachusetts north to the U.S. Canada boarder. These advisories have been issued in anticipation of Earl. Because this is such a large storm, even if the center of circulation stays well off shore we will still experience an impact from Hurricane Earl. Large swells over 20 feet and extremely dangerous rip currents are expected along the Long Island shore, along with the large swells a 6-8 foot storm surge is likely for Long Island with Earl’s approach on Friday. Hurricane Earl is approximately 400 miles in diameter; even a close pass by Earl will produce Tropical Storm force winds of 39 miles per hour or better for the Northeastern seaboard including New York City and Long Island. At this time the highest probability for Hurricane force winds of 74 miles per hour or better exists for North Carolina, eastern Long Island and Cape Cod. Keep in mind that any slight deviation in the forecast track of this storm can yield a land falling major Hurricane anywhere between North Carolina and Cape Cod in a worst case scenario situation. Because there is a potential for a historic catastrophic event residents along the Northeast are encouraged to have a plan of action just in case evacuation orders are implemented by local governments. This is the situation, there is an unusually strong cold front moving through the Midwest towards the east coast. This cold front will give us much needed relief from this week’s heat wave. The expectation is that this frontal system will provide enough of an influence to steer Hurricane Earl away from land before making a direct hit. Here in lies the problem, it is still unclear how this cold front will interact with Earl. If the cold front moves slower than anticipated it will allow Hurricane Earl to come closer to the coast. The exact timing of this cold front is crucial and virtually impossible to predict. My advice is to hope for the best but be prepare for the worst.
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