Weather synopsis: Wednesday September 29

12:10pm an unusual weather pattern has set up over the eastern United States. A High Pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean commonly referred to as the Bermuda High is acting as a blocking mechanism not allowing the Jet Stream to oscillate. This has produced a frontal boundary that is acting like a conduit for tropical disturbances; these tropical entities develop in the western Caribbean Sea then race northward up the eastern sea board. Currently Tropical Storm Nicole is one of those tropical entities that has developed and is expected to produce the next round of heavy rain. This feed of tropical moisture will likely produce flooding up and down the eastern United States; the significant threat for flooding has prompted flash flood watches and warnings from the Carolinas north to New York State and New England. The rain will overtake the region by Thursday and continue through Friday evening. Expect excessive amounts of precipitation and flooding. Also, due to the dynamics of the atmosphere producing strong gusty winds near 40 miles per hour combined with soaking rain some trees will easily topple over. In addition, the wind shear in the atmosphere could even produce an isolated Tornado or two. High temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s in the Northeast but will take a tumble by Saturday. As the frontal boundary finally moves away from the coast on Saturday it will usher in a cool air mass that should drop temperatures by 10°F to 20°F.

Weather synopsis: Tuesday September 28

11:55am THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE TRISTATE REGION INCLUDING ALL 5 BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY AND NASSAU COUNTY UNTIL 6:00PM. A parade of tropical disturbances will ride up along the east coast and will produce magnanimous amounts of rain for some areas through Friday. This weather pattern that has set up along the east coast will also produce strong rotation in the atmosphere and making conditions ripe for the development of Tornadic activity. Keep an eye to the sky and be prepared to seek shelter as we very well could see a repeat of the violent storms this past Summer.

Weather synopsis: Sunday September 26

8:41pm today was a lovely early Fall day with low relative humidity and temperatures, thou cool were comfortable. Tonight we'll drop down to the upper 40s for interior regions of the Northeast and 50s along the New England coast. An area of low pressure is developing over the Southeastern United States. This Low Pressure System is producing much needed rain for a good portion of the east. Tomorrow we will track this Low as it moves ever so slowly towards the north. As this system pinwheels northward it will generate a good amount of rain for much of the east through Wednesday. NCEP forecast models indicate that this will be a persistent weather pattern and should last through this week and perhaps into early next week. Though it is unlikely that we will receive torrential downpours every day this week, we will be dealing with at least a chance of rain through the weekend. Rain can be expected tomorrow especially during the evening going through Tuesday and early Wednesday.

Wether synopsis: Friday September 24

5:42pm Boy was is a hot one today, temperatures soared through the 80s and flirting with 90°F. In fact the record High temperature for today was set in Buffalo, NY at 88°F officially. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s were common through out the Northeast with 90s and above across the Mid-Atlantic. This heat is due to an approaching Cold Front to the west of the region. Ahead of the Cold Front we have a strong southerly wind flow, this caused the high winds today along with the hot temperatures. Tonight expect more wind, clouds and a slight chance of a rain shower as the Cold Front passes overhead. Tonight will be a night of transition as a much colder air mass settles in behind the Cold Front. Temperatures for tomorrow will be noticeably colder to say the least for the interior sections of the Northeast; High temperatures should be some 20-30 degrees cooler than today ranging in the 50s for western New York State. Highs along the Atlantic shore will be in the lower 80s with low humidity. The Atlantic Hurricane Season remains active; NCEP forecast models indicate that there will be a threat of a tropical system for the Gulf of Mexico and/or the Southeast in to next weekend. Up dates will be posted accordingly.

Hurricane Season 2010: Update September 21

11:39pm The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is showing no signs of slowing down as we introduce Tropical Storms Lisa to the picture. Tropical Storm Lisa is the 12th named system of the season so far. This system developed this morning from a tropical wave that has been meanderings about off of the coast of Africa just south of Cape Verde. As of the 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Lisa has maximum sustained wind of 45 miles per hour and it is nearly stationary right now, Lisa is barley moving towards the north with a froward speed of 4 miles per hour. At this time Tropical Storm Lisa is not expected to be a threat to any land mass. We are also monitoring a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. This system is in a favorable environment for further development and could become our next tropical storm in the next 24hrs to 48hrs, this area of thunder storms will be monitored as time progresses as it does pose a threat to land. Also in the Atlantic, we are still monitoring Hurricane Igor as it by-passes Newfoundland with strong winds, high surf and heavy rain.

Weather Synopsis: Monday September 21

11:11am High Pressure will slide towards the coast today producing a good deal of fair weather; in its wake a southerly wind flow will warm up temperatures for the majority of the region. High temperatures today should range between 70 along the coast and 80 for interior regions of the Northeast. Tonight will remain fair with temperatures ranging in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Tomorrow an unstable air mass is forecast to work its way in to western New York and is likely to trigger some scattered showers and thunder storms, the weather should pleasent remain towards the east approaching the coast. Temperatures will range between 70 in the interior regions of the North East to 80 along coastal regions.

Weather Synopsis: Monday September 20

2:19pm More Sunny weather than cloudy skies today for the majority of the region as an area of High Pressure intrudes the Northeast; this high pressure system will produce a pleasant September air mass for today. Temperatures will generally range in the middle 60s to the 70s with low humidity. Tonight the same High Pressure system will produce clear skies, temperatures ranging slightly below average between 50s along the coast 40s in to interior regions of the Northeast. The High Pressure system will influence the weather in to tomorrow as well. Winds will change directions as the area of High Pressure moves towards the coast. This will allow temperatures to rise, expect a warmer day tomorrow especially from western New York State to the Ohio River Valley. Highs will generally range between lower to middle 70s along the coast to the lower to middle 80s in western New York State.

Sept 16, 2010 NYC storm

Wind Gust of up to 122 miles per hour associated with a squalline of Supercell Thunderstorms produced extensive damage in New York City and fatally injured one person this past Thursday. The National Weather Service confirmed that this storm produced 2 Tornadoes and a Microburst in New York City proper. This event marks the 3rd Tornado in New York City in less than two months. This also brings the historical record for Tornadoes in New York City up to 10 since records have been kept. Here is a video recorded in Corona in the borough of Queens. This video is pretty intense, it looks more like a scene from Florida than New York City.

Hurricane Season 2010: Update September 15

1:17pm There are 3 tropical systems currently being monitored in the Atlantic Ocean; Hurricane Igor, Hurricane Julia and Tropical Storm Karl. As of Wednesday morning Hurricane Igor remains very strong storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour, just shy of becoming a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Hurricane Igor is positioned approximately 600 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and is moving towards the west north west with a forward speed of 8 miles per hour. The forecast for Hurricane Igor takes it north of the Caribbean away from the Leeward Islands, forecast models predict this system will then take a northerly turn away from the east coast of the United States towards Bermuda. Even though Hurricane Igor will not directly impact the US its effects will be felt up and down the eastern seaboard. Igor will generate large swells and dangerous rip currents for the east coast beaches. The next system being monitored is Hurricane Julia, now a Category 4 Hurricane. As of Wednesday morning Hurricane Julia has maximum sustained winds of 135 miles per hour and is moving towards the north west with a forward speed of 14 miles per hour. Julia is located 490 miles to the west of Cape Verde moving away from the coast of Africa. At this time Hurricane Julia is not expected to be a threat to any land mass, however it will be a concern for maritime interest. The third system being monitored in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Karl. Karl has made it over land and is now producing torrential rains in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. As of Wednesday morning Tropical Storm Karl has maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour. It is forecast to re-emerge over warm waters as it crosses in to the Gulf of Mexico where it has the potential of gaining strength before making another landfall in Mexico. Lastly, I am monitoring a tropical wave that has emerged off the African coast just south of Cape Verde. This region appears to be going through a tropical cyclone genesis phase; here we might be looking at the spawn of yet another tropical system. The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season remains active. So far this season there have been 11 named storms in the Atlantic; 5 of which became Hurricanes, 4 of these have achieved Major Hurricane status of Category 3 or better. We are only half way through the Atlantic Hurricane Season and it is still peak time for tropical activity, at the rate were going the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season will start to mirror the 2005 Hurricane Season when we monitored a record 27 named systems developing in the Atlantic basin.

Weather synopsis: September 14

11:40am Today marks the 1 year anniversary of Elvis Valerio's Weather Blog. The new viewer count for the first year is 371 strong. The weather has put alot on the plate this fist year and long range forecasts predict there is alot more to come. The planet is going in to an ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) commonly referred to as the El Nino/ La Nina phenomenon. This ENSO cycle is forecast to dominate weather patterns globally for some time to come and incidentally this will influence our seasons. The last notable ENSO cycle planet Earth has experienced occurred back in 1997-1998 and caused wild weather phenomenons around the world from forest fires to blizzards, from torrential flooding to extreme droughts in places that don't typically experience these weather anomalies with high frequency and severe intensity. This ENSO cycle is expected to be moderate to strong; going by our climate records we can expect much of the same this time around. We've already began to see wild weather patterns all around the world. Since I've launched my weather blog I can recall the winter blitz that hammered the nation early this year in a winter dubbed "Snowmageddon." Also the deadly floods of Nashville this spring and Iowa this summer, as well as the active Hurricane Season so far are all accounts for the ENSO cycle that is underway, and these are just a handful of examples from this country alone. These weather anomalies are occurring on a global scale. Experts predict that this ENSO cycle will persist through June of 2012, I will provide additional information on the current state of the ENSO cycle as well as expert analysis on what the climate might hold for the coming weeks, months, seasons and years. Its been an amazing fist year; I am overwhelmed with gratitude for my blog viewers and hope to expand the site as time progresses. May there be more prosperous years to come for Elvis Valerio's Weather Blog. Viva evwx.blogspot.com !!!

Hurricane Season 2010: Update September 13

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues to be an active one. Within one week of Hurricane Earl's glancing blow to the east coast we have seen Tropical Storm Hermine spawn in the Gulf of Mexico and make a landfall near the Texas and Mexico boarder producing flooding and in-land Tropical Storm conditions. Currently we have a few newly developed systems in the Atlantic, Hurricane Igor and Tropical Storm Julia. As of the 11:00am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Igor has maximum sustained wind speeds of 150 miles per hour making it a strong Category 4 Hurricane. Igor is moving towards the west with a forward speed of 10 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure was recorded at 933 millibars and dropping, this is a good indicator that this storm is gaining strength. Computer models predict this storm will continue to intensify before it encounters some wind shear as it continues towards the west. The forecast for Hurricane Igor steers this storm system away from the Caribbean. However, a tropical wave is brewing in the eastern Caribbean Sea with a potential of developing further. It has been an active Hurricane season thus far as we have another system in the Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia. As of the 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Julia has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and is moving towards the west north west at a forward speed of 13 miles per hour. Tropical Storm Julia is forecast to strengthen in to a Category 1 Hurricane by tomorrow but should stay well away from any land mass.

Hurricane Season 2010: Hurricane Earl Upadate September 2

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is shaping up to be extremely active as of late. Parades of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes have been forming from tropical waves off the African coast with high frequency. Climatologically speaking this is the average peak time of the year for Tropical Storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean. So far this season we’ve had 9 tropical systems forming in the Atlantic of which 7 of these have achieved Tropical Storm status. Of these 7 Tropical Storms we’ve had 3 Hurricanes, 2 of which have achieved Major Hurricane status of Category 3 or better. This Hurricane Season is not showing any signs of slowing down any time soon; currently there are 3 tropical systems that we are monitoring in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona, and Tropical Storm Gaston. Our most immediate concern right now is Hurricane Earl. As of the 8:00am advisory from the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Earl is positioned approximately 850 miles south of New York City, 900 miles south of Montauk Point in Long Island just east of the Florida Georgia state boarder. Maximum sustained winds have been recorded at 145 miles per hour making this a very powerful storm at Category 4 status. Earl is moving towards the north north west with a forward speed of 18 miles per hour taking an express route towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for the North Carolina coast; Hurricane Watches have been issued for the Delmarva Peninsula and for Cape Cod in Massachusetts. In addition to the Hurricane advisories, the National Weather Service has also issued Tropical Storm Warnings from the North Carolina and Virginia state boarder north to Long Island as well as Tropical Storm Watches from Plymouth, Massachusetts north to the U.S. Canada boarder. These advisories have been issued in anticipation of Earl. Because this is such a large storm, even if the center of circulation stays well off shore we will still experience an impact from Hurricane Earl. Large swells over 20 feet and extremely dangerous rip currents are expected along the Long Island shore, along with the large swells a 6-8 foot storm surge is likely for Long Island with Earl’s approach on Friday. Hurricane Earl is approximately 400 miles in diameter; even a close pass by Earl will produce Tropical Storm force winds of 39 miles per hour or better for the Northeastern seaboard including New York City and Long Island. At this time the highest probability for Hurricane force winds of 74 miles per hour or better exists for North Carolina, eastern Long Island and Cape Cod. Keep in mind that any slight deviation in the forecast track of this storm can yield a land falling major Hurricane anywhere between North Carolina and Cape Cod in a worst case scenario situation. Because there is a potential for a historic catastrophic event residents along the Northeast are encouraged to have a plan of action just in case evacuation orders are implemented by local governments. This is the situation, there is an unusually strong cold front moving through the Midwest towards the east coast. This cold front will give us much needed relief from this week’s heat wave. The expectation is that this frontal system will provide enough of an influence to steer Hurricane Earl away from land before making a direct hit. Here in lies the problem, it is still unclear how this cold front will interact with Earl. If the cold front moves slower than anticipated it will allow Hurricane Earl to come closer to the coast. The exact timing of this cold front is crucial and virtually impossible to predict. My advice is to hope for the best but be prepare for the worst.