Weather synopsis: January 18

At midnight the temperature in Bronx County, NY is 43°F under mostly cloudy skies. The rain storm that has impacted the region this past Sunday has produced a considerable amount of rain and wind. Rainfall amounts have been recorded over 0.5" in NYC to greater than 1.5" over Long Island combined with a melting snow pack causing some flooding. Considerable wind gusts have also been reported ranging between 40MPH in the Bronx to over 50MPH at Shinnecock inlet in Long Island. Unseasonably mild conditions continue after weeks of bone chilling cold, we reached a high temperature of 50°F today. Temperatures are running some 15° to 20° above the average for January standards. Climatologically speaking, these mild temperatures aren't that unusual as it is typical to see a prolonged period of mild temperatures in the month of January within the contiguous United States. This phenomenon is known as the January Thaw. These mild conditions however will likely be short lived as we are only entering the thick of the Winter season. A cold front will sweep the region tomorrow and drop our temperatures to more seasonable readings tho not nearly as cold as we've experienced thus far this Winter season. This cold front has the potential to initiate a few light snow showers within the region Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, I want to emphasize the word light; any precipitation that does fall shouldn't have any considerable impact on any event plans or travel arrangements. Looking ahead, temperatures will likely oscillate between cold and mild readings for the foreseeable future. The next real chance for any considerable precipitation will arrive by the weeks end. A storm system will likely impact the region on Friday the 22nd through Saturday the 23rd with a mix of Rain and Snow as temperatures will run right on the precipice of supporting frozen and liquid precipitation. Looking far ahead, NCEP forecast models are predicting a colder pattern to return to the region with the possibility of a storm system impacting the Northeast region near Ground Hog's Day. I want to mention that a forecast this far into the future is subject to change as weather, especially this time of year; is dynamic and virtually unpredictable even with the most sophisticated forecasting equipment and super computer calculations.