Weather synopsis: November 30

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE GREATER BUFFALO METROPOLITAN AREA. The temperature has been holding steady at 38° since about midnight last night and I am expecting the mercury to tumble as we progress through the day. A storm system moved in through the area last night that produced rain. In the wake of that storm an Arctic air mass is taking its place setting up the scenario for a potential Lake Effect snow event for much of Erie County including the greater Buffalo metro area. Tonight temperatures will drop below the freezing point and a wind will develop off of lake Erie. This will cause a lake-effect snow band to develop right over the city of Buffalo and northern Erie counties. This snow band has the potential to produce snowfall rates of 0.5" to 2.0" per hour. I expect this snow band to stick around over Buffalo long enough to produce a wet snow fall on the order of 2" to as much as 6". This snow band will have enough convection to work with to produce thunder and lightning. After the early morning hours the snow squall will drift south after 7:00 AM. Tomorrow, high temperatures will climb above freezing to around 39°F so the snow that does fall should begin to melt rather quickly. With this Arctic intrusion, there is yet another potential for a lake-effect/ lake-enhanced snow event Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be at or below average so precipitation will likely fall mostly as snow.

Weahter synonpsis: November 20

49°F in Buffalo, NY with fair skies and breezy conditions. The storm system that produced rain fall yesterday has finally pulled out of the region, in its wake we saw a lake effect rain band develop across the south towns of Buffalo. That lake effect band has since dissipated and we are left with pleasant but breezy conditions. Expect a return to average in terms of temperature for this up coming week as a pattern change in the jet stream makes for a more zonal flow across the lower 48. Precipitation wise, we will see a chance of some unsettled conditions on Monday and then again by Wednesday and Thursday where some snow will mix in with the rain expected.

Weather synopsis: November 19

51°F right now in Buffalo, NY with overcast skies and rain falling in the area. Above average temperatures have taken over this November. Temperatures are runing 5-10° above the norm for the month sofar. NCEP forecast models indicate a return to more seasonal conditions by Thanksgiving and possible snow fall for the end of the month for the Northeast, I'll montor that and keep updating the forecast as time progresses. Today the area is being affected by the same low pressure system that produced snow for Kansas and parts of the central plains. Here the precipitation will fall as rain although we may get a brief period of sleet mixing in very early on Friday. Once this system exits the region, cooler air intrude the area although it wont be terrably cold, only expecting a return to more seasonable conditions.