Weather synopsis: Wednesday September 29

12:10pm an unusual weather pattern has set up over the eastern United States. A High Pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean commonly referred to as the Bermuda High is acting as a blocking mechanism not allowing the Jet Stream to oscillate. This has produced a frontal boundary that is acting like a conduit for tropical disturbances; these tropical entities develop in the western Caribbean Sea then race northward up the eastern sea board. Currently Tropical Storm Nicole is one of those tropical entities that has developed and is expected to produce the next round of heavy rain. This feed of tropical moisture will likely produce flooding up and down the eastern United States; the significant threat for flooding has prompted flash flood watches and warnings from the Carolinas north to New York State and New England. The rain will overtake the region by Thursday and continue through Friday evening. Expect excessive amounts of precipitation and flooding. Also, due to the dynamics of the atmosphere producing strong gusty winds near 40 miles per hour combined with soaking rain some trees will easily topple over. In addition, the wind shear in the atmosphere could even produce an isolated Tornado or two. High temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s in the Northeast but will take a tumble by Saturday. As the frontal boundary finally moves away from the coast on Saturday it will usher in a cool air mass that should drop temperatures by 10°F to 20°F.

Weather synopsis: Tuesday September 28

11:55am THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE TRISTATE REGION INCLUDING ALL 5 BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY AND NASSAU COUNTY UNTIL 6:00PM. A parade of tropical disturbances will ride up along the east coast and will produce magnanimous amounts of rain for some areas through Friday. This weather pattern that has set up along the east coast will also produce strong rotation in the atmosphere and making conditions ripe for the development of Tornadic activity. Keep an eye to the sky and be prepared to seek shelter as we very well could see a repeat of the violent storms this past Summer.

Weather synopsis: Sunday September 26

8:41pm today was a lovely early Fall day with low relative humidity and temperatures, thou cool were comfortable. Tonight we'll drop down to the upper 40s for interior regions of the Northeast and 50s along the New England coast. An area of low pressure is developing over the Southeastern United States. This Low Pressure System is producing much needed rain for a good portion of the east. Tomorrow we will track this Low as it moves ever so slowly towards the north. As this system pinwheels northward it will generate a good amount of rain for much of the east through Wednesday. NCEP forecast models indicate that this will be a persistent weather pattern and should last through this week and perhaps into early next week. Though it is unlikely that we will receive torrential downpours every day this week, we will be dealing with at least a chance of rain through the weekend. Rain can be expected tomorrow especially during the evening going through Tuesday and early Wednesday.

Wether synopsis: Friday September 24

5:42pm Boy was is a hot one today, temperatures soared through the 80s and flirting with 90°F. In fact the record High temperature for today was set in Buffalo, NY at 88°F officially. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s were common through out the Northeast with 90s and above across the Mid-Atlantic. This heat is due to an approaching Cold Front to the west of the region. Ahead of the Cold Front we have a strong southerly wind flow, this caused the high winds today along with the hot temperatures. Tonight expect more wind, clouds and a slight chance of a rain shower as the Cold Front passes overhead. Tonight will be a night of transition as a much colder air mass settles in behind the Cold Front. Temperatures for tomorrow will be noticeably colder to say the least for the interior sections of the Northeast; High temperatures should be some 20-30 degrees cooler than today ranging in the 50s for western New York State. Highs along the Atlantic shore will be in the lower 80s with low humidity. The Atlantic Hurricane Season remains active; NCEP forecast models indicate that there will be a threat of a tropical system for the Gulf of Mexico and/or the Southeast in to next weekend. Up dates will be posted accordingly.

Hurricane Season 2010: Update September 21

11:39pm The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is showing no signs of slowing down as we introduce Tropical Storms Lisa to the picture. Tropical Storm Lisa is the 12th named system of the season so far. This system developed this morning from a tropical wave that has been meanderings about off of the coast of Africa just south of Cape Verde. As of the 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Lisa has maximum sustained wind of 45 miles per hour and it is nearly stationary right now, Lisa is barley moving towards the north with a froward speed of 4 miles per hour. At this time Tropical Storm Lisa is not expected to be a threat to any land mass. We are also monitoring a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. This system is in a favorable environment for further development and could become our next tropical storm in the next 24hrs to 48hrs, this area of thunder storms will be monitored as time progresses as it does pose a threat to land. Also in the Atlantic, we are still monitoring Hurricane Igor as it by-passes Newfoundland with strong winds, high surf and heavy rain.

Weather Synopsis: Monday September 21

11:11am High Pressure will slide towards the coast today producing a good deal of fair weather; in its wake a southerly wind flow will warm up temperatures for the majority of the region. High temperatures today should range between 70 along the coast and 80 for interior regions of the Northeast. Tonight will remain fair with temperatures ranging in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Tomorrow an unstable air mass is forecast to work its way in to western New York and is likely to trigger some scattered showers and thunder storms, the weather should pleasent remain towards the east approaching the coast. Temperatures will range between 70 in the interior regions of the North East to 80 along coastal regions.

Weather Synopsis: Monday September 20

2:19pm More Sunny weather than cloudy skies today for the majority of the region as an area of High Pressure intrudes the Northeast; this high pressure system will produce a pleasant September air mass for today. Temperatures will generally range in the middle 60s to the 70s with low humidity. Tonight the same High Pressure system will produce clear skies, temperatures ranging slightly below average between 50s along the coast 40s in to interior regions of the Northeast. The High Pressure system will influence the weather in to tomorrow as well. Winds will change directions as the area of High Pressure moves towards the coast. This will allow temperatures to rise, expect a warmer day tomorrow especially from western New York State to the Ohio River Valley. Highs will generally range between lower to middle 70s along the coast to the lower to middle 80s in western New York State.

Sept 16, 2010 NYC storm

Wind Gust of up to 122 miles per hour associated with a squalline of Supercell Thunderstorms produced extensive damage in New York City and fatally injured one person this past Thursday. The National Weather Service confirmed that this storm produced 2 Tornadoes and a Microburst in New York City proper. This event marks the 3rd Tornado in New York City in less than two months. This also brings the historical record for Tornadoes in New York City up to 10 since records have been kept. Here is a video recorded in Corona in the borough of Queens. This video is pretty intense, it looks more like a scene from Florida than New York City.

Hurricane Season 2010: Update September 15

1:17pm There are 3 tropical systems currently being monitored in the Atlantic Ocean; Hurricane Igor, Hurricane Julia and Tropical Storm Karl. As of Wednesday morning Hurricane Igor remains very strong storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour, just shy of becoming a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Hurricane Igor is positioned approximately 600 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and is moving towards the west north west with a forward speed of 8 miles per hour. The forecast for Hurricane Igor takes it north of the Caribbean away from the Leeward Islands, forecast models predict this system will then take a northerly turn away from the east coast of the United States towards Bermuda. Even though Hurricane Igor will not directly impact the US its effects will be felt up and down the eastern seaboard. Igor will generate large swells and dangerous rip currents for the east coast beaches. The next system being monitored is Hurricane Julia, now a Category 4 Hurricane. As of Wednesday morning Hurricane Julia has maximum sustained winds of 135 miles per hour and is moving towards the north west with a forward speed of 14 miles per hour. Julia is located 490 miles to the west of Cape Verde moving away from the coast of Africa. At this time Hurricane Julia is not expected to be a threat to any land mass, however it will be a concern for maritime interest. The third system being monitored in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Karl. Karl has made it over land and is now producing torrential rains in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. As of Wednesday morning Tropical Storm Karl has maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour. It is forecast to re-emerge over warm waters as it crosses in to the Gulf of Mexico where it has the potential of gaining strength before making another landfall in Mexico. Lastly, I am monitoring a tropical wave that has emerged off the African coast just south of Cape Verde. This region appears to be going through a tropical cyclone genesis phase; here we might be looking at the spawn of yet another tropical system. The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season remains active. So far this season there have been 11 named storms in the Atlantic; 5 of which became Hurricanes, 4 of these have achieved Major Hurricane status of Category 3 or better. We are only half way through the Atlantic Hurricane Season and it is still peak time for tropical activity, at the rate were going the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season will start to mirror the 2005 Hurricane Season when we monitored a record 27 named systems developing in the Atlantic basin.

Weather synopsis: September 14

11:40am Today marks the 1 year anniversary of Elvis Valerio's Weather Blog. The new viewer count for the first year is 371 strong. The weather has put alot on the plate this fist year and long range forecasts predict there is alot more to come. The planet is going in to an ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) commonly referred to as the El Nino/ La Nina phenomenon. This ENSO cycle is forecast to dominate weather patterns globally for some time to come and incidentally this will influence our seasons. The last notable ENSO cycle planet Earth has experienced occurred back in 1997-1998 and caused wild weather phenomenons around the world from forest fires to blizzards, from torrential flooding to extreme droughts in places that don't typically experience these weather anomalies with high frequency and severe intensity. This ENSO cycle is expected to be moderate to strong; going by our climate records we can expect much of the same this time around. We've already began to see wild weather patterns all around the world. Since I've launched my weather blog I can recall the winter blitz that hammered the nation early this year in a winter dubbed "Snowmageddon." Also the deadly floods of Nashville this spring and Iowa this summer, as well as the active Hurricane Season so far are all accounts for the ENSO cycle that is underway, and these are just a handful of examples from this country alone. These weather anomalies are occurring on a global scale. Experts predict that this ENSO cycle will persist through June of 2012, I will provide additional information on the current state of the ENSO cycle as well as expert analysis on what the climate might hold for the coming weeks, months, seasons and years. Its been an amazing fist year; I am overwhelmed with gratitude for my blog viewers and hope to expand the site as time progresses. May there be more prosperous years to come for Elvis Valerio's Weather Blog. Viva evwx.blogspot.com !!!

Hurricane Season 2010: Update September 13

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues to be an active one. Within one week of Hurricane Earl's glancing blow to the east coast we have seen Tropical Storm Hermine spawn in the Gulf of Mexico and make a landfall near the Texas and Mexico boarder producing flooding and in-land Tropical Storm conditions. Currently we have a few newly developed systems in the Atlantic, Hurricane Igor and Tropical Storm Julia. As of the 11:00am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Igor has maximum sustained wind speeds of 150 miles per hour making it a strong Category 4 Hurricane. Igor is moving towards the west with a forward speed of 10 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure was recorded at 933 millibars and dropping, this is a good indicator that this storm is gaining strength. Computer models predict this storm will continue to intensify before it encounters some wind shear as it continues towards the west. The forecast for Hurricane Igor steers this storm system away from the Caribbean. However, a tropical wave is brewing in the eastern Caribbean Sea with a potential of developing further. It has been an active Hurricane season thus far as we have another system in the Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia. As of the 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Julia has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and is moving towards the west north west at a forward speed of 13 miles per hour. Tropical Storm Julia is forecast to strengthen in to a Category 1 Hurricane by tomorrow but should stay well away from any land mass.

Hurricane Season 2010: Hurricane Earl Upadate September 2

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is shaping up to be extremely active as of late. Parades of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes have been forming from tropical waves off the African coast with high frequency. Climatologically speaking this is the average peak time of the year for Tropical Storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean. So far this season we’ve had 9 tropical systems forming in the Atlantic of which 7 of these have achieved Tropical Storm status. Of these 7 Tropical Storms we’ve had 3 Hurricanes, 2 of which have achieved Major Hurricane status of Category 3 or better. This Hurricane Season is not showing any signs of slowing down any time soon; currently there are 3 tropical systems that we are monitoring in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona, and Tropical Storm Gaston. Our most immediate concern right now is Hurricane Earl. As of the 8:00am advisory from the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Earl is positioned approximately 850 miles south of New York City, 900 miles south of Montauk Point in Long Island just east of the Florida Georgia state boarder. Maximum sustained winds have been recorded at 145 miles per hour making this a very powerful storm at Category 4 status. Earl is moving towards the north north west with a forward speed of 18 miles per hour taking an express route towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for the North Carolina coast; Hurricane Watches have been issued for the Delmarva Peninsula and for Cape Cod in Massachusetts. In addition to the Hurricane advisories, the National Weather Service has also issued Tropical Storm Warnings from the North Carolina and Virginia state boarder north to Long Island as well as Tropical Storm Watches from Plymouth, Massachusetts north to the U.S. Canada boarder. These advisories have been issued in anticipation of Earl. Because this is such a large storm, even if the center of circulation stays well off shore we will still experience an impact from Hurricane Earl. Large swells over 20 feet and extremely dangerous rip currents are expected along the Long Island shore, along with the large swells a 6-8 foot storm surge is likely for Long Island with Earl’s approach on Friday. Hurricane Earl is approximately 400 miles in diameter; even a close pass by Earl will produce Tropical Storm force winds of 39 miles per hour or better for the Northeastern seaboard including New York City and Long Island. At this time the highest probability for Hurricane force winds of 74 miles per hour or better exists for North Carolina, eastern Long Island and Cape Cod. Keep in mind that any slight deviation in the forecast track of this storm can yield a land falling major Hurricane anywhere between North Carolina and Cape Cod in a worst case scenario situation. Because there is a potential for a historic catastrophic event residents along the Northeast are encouraged to have a plan of action just in case evacuation orders are implemented by local governments. This is the situation, there is an unusually strong cold front moving through the Midwest towards the east coast. This cold front will give us much needed relief from this week’s heat wave. The expectation is that this frontal system will provide enough of an influence to steer Hurricane Earl away from land before making a direct hit. Here in lies the problem, it is still unclear how this cold front will interact with Earl. If the cold front moves slower than anticipated it will allow Hurricane Earl to come closer to the coast. The exact timing of this cold front is crucial and virtually impossible to predict. My advice is to hope for the best but be prepare for the worst.

Weather Synopsis: Hurricane Earl Up Date August 31

3:13pm Hazy, hot and humid conditions prevail all over the Northeastern United States. Temperatures are soaring well in to the 90's up and down the east coast from Bangor, Maine to Baltimore, Maryland. The high heat is attributed to a strong High Pressure System at the upper levels of the atmosphere stationed right over the eastern third of the nation. The heat wave will continue through Thursday before a rather strong cold front moves in from the west and drives this dome of High Pressure out to sea. The cold front is expected to usher in much cooler and more pleasant temperatures in to the Northeast in time for Labor Day weekend. In addition, this frontal boundary will be pivotal in determining the exact track of Hurricane Earl. As of 2:00pm eastern time the National Hurricane Center has tracked Earl approximately 120 nautical miles to the north of the Dominican Republic moving towards the west north west with a forward speed of 13 miles per hour. Maximum sustained wind have been recorded at 135 miles per hour making Hurricane Earl a powerful Category 4 storm. The current forecast brings the center of the storm off shore right along the east coast. NCEP forecast models suggest that Hurricane Earl will pick up froward momentum and zip northward into the Canadian province of Nova Scottia. Between now and then residents along the eastern seaboard need to keep a watchful eye on the unfolding situation; there is a chance that Hurricane Earl will make land fall over the east coast late this week Thursday through Friday. A strong cold front is expected to plow through the region. The strong jet stream behind this cold front is forecast to steer Hurricane Earl to the north and then eventually to the north east away from land sparing the east coast from the worst of Hurricane Earl; however, if this cold front moves slower than anticipated the High Pressure system that is currently producing the heat wave over the Northeast will steer Hurricane Earl closer to the coast and potentially bring it right on shore in a worst case scenario situation. If the worst case scenario transpires we could be dealing with a historic life changing event affecting millions of people along the densely populated Northeast. Conversely, if the upper level winds steer Earl away from the coast the Northeast will be spared from the brunt of the storm, regardless of what transpires we will still have to deal with high swells potentially 20 feet or better, significant beach erosion and coastal flooding through out the Labor Day weekend. At this moment Hurricane Earl is not expected to make a land fall in the United States; however, the exact track of this storm is still uncertain. The weather is very dynamic and a forecast can change with out notice, it would not be a bad idea to start preparing now for a worst case scenario. Have and emergency plan for evacuating.

Hurricane Season 2010: Hurricane Earl Update August 30

3:00pm Hurricane Earl has been pounding the eastern Caribbean with hurricane force winds and torrential rains. As of 3:00pm the National Hurricane Center tracked the center of Hurricane Earl just north of the British Virgin Islands. The storm is moving towards the west north west with a forward speed of 15 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds have been recorded at 125 miles per hour making this a major Hurricane at Category 3. Minimum central pressure at the core of the storm has been recorded at 955 millibars and dropping, this persistent drop in central pressure indicates that Earl is strengthening. The current forecast suggests Hurricane Earl will continue to intensify through Wednesday into a powerful Category 4 storm. The exact track of Hurricane Earl is still uncertain; at this time NCEP forecast models are predicting that the Hurricane will track away from the coast. However the system is still days away from the eastern seaboard and a slight variation in the track could potentially bring a major Hurricane on shore this by the end of this week from the outer banks of North Carolina north to Cape Cod including Long Island, the Jersey Shore and the Delmarva Peninsula. Even if Hurricane Earl stays well away from the coast, it will still be close enough to produce significant beach erosion, very high swells and dangerous rip currents.

Hurricane Season 2010: Update August 29

So far this years Hurricane Season has produced an above average number of systems in the Atlantic. Things are have just began to fire up as we approach the peak of the Hurricane Season. So far there have been 7 Tropical Depressions in the Atlantic of which 5 have gain tropical storm status or better. A tropical storm is considered to be a low pressure system with a closed circulation down at the surface over warm tropical waters with wind speeds of 39 miles per hour or greater. Once wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour the storm is classified as a Category 1 Hurricane. So far this year there have been 3 Hurricanes, The first was Hurricane Alex which formed early in the season and made landfall in northern Mexico near the Texas boarder with maximum sustained winds of 100 miles per hour as a strong Category 2 Hurricane. Hurricane Danielle formed on August 21st from a tropical wave off the African coast and quickly became the first major Hurricane of the Atlantic Hurricane Season as a Category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 135 miles per hour; Danielle has produced some swells and rip currents for the east coast of the United States, the Hurricane is now well east of the island of Bermuda and the forecast calls for this system to continue its track away from the United Stated. The third Hurricane of the season is Hurricane Earl. Like Hurricane Danielle, Earl formed as a tropical wave off the African coast and is now churning the waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The current forecast is driving this strengthening storm towards the eastern Caribbean islands. Tropical Storm and Hurricane advisories have been implemented for the northern leeward islands including the US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. As of 5:00pm Hurricane Earl has sustained winds of 85 miles per hour and is moving to the west north west at 14 miles per hour. These locations are in the direct path of Hurricane Earl and will likely experience Hurricane conditions tonight and tomorrow. The Hurricane is centered just to the east of the lesser Antilles and will impact the region with Hurricane force winds, torrential rain and high storm surge. Furthermore, Hurricane Earl is forecast to pass dangerously close to the east coast of the United States this up coming weekend during the Labor Day holiday. It is still too early to pin point the exact path of the Hurricane. A frontal boundary is forecast to sweep through the eastern US, the forecast if for Hurricane Earl to be carried by this frontal boundary and make a turn to the north then eventually northeast tracking away from the eastern sea board. Nevertheless, if the storm veers to the west of the forecast track we would be talking about a potential for Hurricane conditions from the Carolina coast up to Cape Cod including Long Island, the Jersey Shore and the Delmarva Peninsula. If the storm stays away from the east coast major impacts will be significant beach erosion, large swells and dangerous rip currents. At this point the forecast is uncertain however we are only a few days away from Hurricane Earl's approach to the east coast.

Hurricane Season 2010 Update: July 1

The first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season made landfall in northern Mexico approximately 100 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. Hurricane Alex made landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane with the strongest winds near its center of circulation measured at 100 MPH. Its minimum central pressure was measured at 947 Millibars making Hurricane Alex the strongest Hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Dolly in 1994. Hurricane Alex formed from a tropical wave that made its way across the Atlantic Ocean. When it reached the Caribbean Sea it brought torrential downpours to Puerto Rico, The Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba. The tropical wave slowly churned the waters of the Caribbean Sea until it developed a closed circulation surface Low Pressure. It was the dubbed Tropical Depression 1 and it began to slowly move west towards Mexico and Belize. The system intensified in to a Tropical Storm and it made landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula. The Tropical Storm brought flooding rains to Honduras, Belize and Mexico' Yucatan. Over land, the system weakened to a Tropical Depression however, Alex moved into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico an quickly restrengthened to Tropical Storm status then Hurricane status making it the first Hurricane to form in the Atlantic since 1994. Hurricane Alex produced storm surge, torrential rains, damaging winds and spawned Tornadoes over south Texas. Now over land once again, Alex will continue to weaken and eventually dissipate however the remains of this system will continue producing heavy rain over south Texas then eventually over the Midwest.

Weather synopsis: June 8

4:20pm it has been a rather cool start to the work week for the most part across the Northeast. A storm system has pulled out of the region and in its wake a cool and dry air mass has moved in. High temperatures have been generally in the upper 50's to lower 70's with lows down in to the upper 40's in upstate New York and upper 50's along the coast. A new storm system will move infiltrate the region Wednesday; expect increasing clouds tonight in western New York with rain showers for tomorrow. The heaviest rain should remain south of Buffalo in to the Ohio River Valley; this storm system will progress east towards the coast and produce a steady rain fall for Pennsylvania then eventually the Hudson River Valley and southern New England. The rain will likely cease by early Thursday morning in the New York City metropolitan area. In the wake of this next system, temperatures should rebound nicely by Friday and down right hot by the weekend. A slight chance of showers and storms in the forecast in to the weekend with the greatest risk of storms likely on Sunday.

Weather synopsis: June 6

4:09pm a vigorous low pressure system is charging through the region. This storm system is dragging an sharp cold front. Ahead of the front temperatures are in the 90°F range; behind the front temperatures are in the 50°F range. This sharp difference in temperature is indicative of a very unstable atmosphere over the region. This instability has produced impressive amounts of rain over western New York yesterday with strong storms that have spawned a deadly Tornado outbreak over the Ohio River Valley and portions of the Midwest. Now this same system is plowing east towards the coast; Tornado watches have been posted from down east Maine to Washington D.C. Wind gusts of up to 80MPH are likely as a squall line of storms race eastward. Along with the damaging wind potential these storms could also produce golf ball sized hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Doppler radar indicate that these storms have been loosing strength, however portions of southern New England could still receive some severe thunder storms. Once this storm system pulls away expect a stretch of fair weather through the work week. Monday should be dry with cooler temperatures ranging between 65°F and 75°F. Temperatures will moderate this week but should remain around average with ample sunshine.

Weather synopsis: May 25

5:41pm although technically not a heatwave, it will certainly feel that way across the entire region these next few days. A High Pressure system will usher in a hot and humid air mass to influence the eastern two thirds of the Nation. The Northeast will experience temperatures some 15° to 25° above the average for this time of year. Temperatures will range between 85°F and 95°F from Buffalo, NY to Bangor, Maine and down the coast from Boston to New York and Washington D.C. Long range forecast models indicate this pattern wont last long, by this Friday temperatures should return to the 70s which is more typical and more bearable for late May. The high heat will produce enough instability in the Atmosphere that will likely trigger some strong to severe thunder storms Wednesday evening. Highs on Wednesday will reach 90°F or better for most of the region. Word of advise, wear plenty of Sunscreen to protect your skin from harmful Ultraviolet radiation from the Sun. Every time you get sunburned you increase your chances of skin cancer by a significant factor. Also, keep your self hydrated; drink plenty of water and avoid excessive alcoholic beverages.

Weather synopsis: May 4

10:25am wide spread showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm today. Highs in to the upper 60s and low 70s for the Northeast. Warming up tomorrow warming up to the upper 70s and low 80s for the entire region with plenty of sunshine.

Weather synopsis: April 24

10:41am an area of High Pressure will give way to a Low Pressure System moving from the South to the Northeast. This system will feature moderate to heavy rain for the Northeast. The Southeast has been receiving strong to severe thunderstorms capable of spawning Tornadoes that will stay well south of the Northeast. The forecast for the Northeast region calls for nice weather today with temperatures in the mid 60s. Increasing clouds can be expected through the evening ahead of the Low Pressure System. Rain will break out in the early morning tomorrow and will continue at a moderate rate. Looking ahead, rain will continue through the early week. Rain should cease by Tuesday in upstate New York but will linger into Wednesday along the Atlantic coast. Temperatures will go on a roller-coaster ride; ahead of this Low Pressure System temperatures will be on the warm side in the 60s, behind the system temperatures will be some 10° cooler in the 50s, then by Wednesday and Thursday temperatures will warm up once more. NCEP forecast models suggest that another big warm up is in the works for the latter portion of the week with temperatures possibly approaching record levels.

Weather synopsis: April 20

4:20pm beautiful spring weather continues over much of the Northeast. Hardly any clouds in the sky today in Buffalo, NY and for a good portion of the region. A weak Low Pressure system will try and push in from the south but the region remains under the influence of a dense High Pressure air mass preventing any heavy precipitation if any. The Low Pressure System will produce partly cloudy skies tonight with a very slight chance of a shower tonight especially for southern portions of the Northeast region. Fair weather will be likely through the week and much of the weekend. The average temperature trends and fair weather will stick around till Sunday afternoon-ish. A new Low Pressure System currently affecting the Pacific coast will progress east-bound, affecting much of the Nation before moving in to the Northeast. Current NCEP forecast model projections suggest that the unsettled weather should arrive during the early evening hours this Sunday. Looking far ahead, NCEP forecast models indicate this next Low Pressure System might be a slow mover;if this is indeed the case we can expect a more soggy forecast for next week.

Weather synonpsis: April 19

1:17pm typical spring like conditions prevail over the region. Almanac records indicate that our temperatures are running right around the average for the date. Plenty of sunshine today with just a slight brisk in the air of a spring day. Temperatures are running between 50° and 60° Fahrenheit in upstate New York with a temperature spread between 60°F and 70°F along the Atlantic coast. The forecast calls for this trend to continue through the week as a High Pressure system will take precedence over the Northeast. This system will produce an air mass of stable dense sinking air, this should prevent any showers or mass cumulus cloud formations.

Weather synopsis: April 12

7:11pm typical spring weather will continue this week across the Northeast. High temperatures this week will range between 55°F-60°F in upstate New York and New England and up to 70°F in the southern portion of the region in to southern New York and Pennsylvania. There is a slight chance of light rain Tuesday with a better chance of rain on the horizon into the up coming weekend. NCEP forecast models indicate a prominent storm system will move south from Canada and initiate rain showers in western New York on Thursday. The rain should spread east in to southern New York by Friday. Heavy rain is likely this weekend in the Tri-state area with the storm system redeveloping of shore. Behind the storm system a period of slightly cooler temperatures is possible.

Weather synopsis: April 8

11:32am beautiful weather is in the forecast for most of the day, temperatures will climb in to the 50s and 60s north of a stationary front and in to the 70s and 80s to the south. Partly to mostly cloudy skies today with increasing clouds by evening. The increasing clouds are due to an approaching cold front to our west that is associated with an upper level low pressure system. Behind this front temperatures will be much cooler but right around normal. Temperatures have been well above average lately for much of the region. A stationary front extended from the Midwest to the Northeast, this was the same front that produced the train of stormy weather and cool temperatures in Buffalo, NY most of the week. South of the front temperatures reached record levels. Yesterday New York City reached 92°F making April 6 the earliest 90° day on record in Central Park; its hard to believe that just 6 weeks ago we were buried in 2 feet of snow. The dry heat sparked concerns of wild brush fires; the National Weather Service posted advisories that placed much of the Northeast under Red Flag Warnings. Though not quite as hot today, New York City will approach 80°F; the same can be expected for much of the region south of the stationary front. The big cheese today will be the passage of a cold front that will spark some showers and introduce a cooler air mass for the entire region. The front will intrude from west to east. It will reach western New York State early this evening then work its way east towards the Atlantic Ocean. Highs on Friday will be in the 30s in northern New England, 40s in Upstate New York and 50s along the coast. Beyond Friday the Northeast will be under the influence of a High Pressure system that will produce pleasant spring weather this weekend and most of next week.

Weather synopsis: April7

12:37pm it was a stormy scene in Buffalo, NY this morning as severe thunderstorms spawned large hail as they rumbled through town. The weather across the Northeast will be divided by a frontal boundary. To the north of this front expect cool temperatures with the chance of showers and storms. South of this front expect summer like heat with temperatures approaching 90°F with ample sunshine. The high heat combined with low relative humidity south of the frontal boundary has raised concerns for wild fires. For this reason, the National Weather Service has posted Fire Weather Warnings for much of the Northeast and Midatlantic. Expect much of the same conditions through Thursday before a cold front sweeps the region and drops our temperatures to where they should be this time of year. The weekend is looking to be sunny and dry but cooler with pleasant Spring time temperatures.

Weather synopsis: April 6

11:03am scattered showers and thunderstorms have been rumbling through the Northeast this morning. A stationary front over the Great Lakes has provided a means for a series of weak disturbances to move from the Midwest into the Northeast. Some of these disturbances will feature some embedded thunderstorms; some of which could be strong to severe. Temperatures to the north of the stationary front will be slightly cooler in to the 50s and 60s compared to the 70s south of the front. This frontal boundary is associated with a more potent storm system over the nation's mid section that will likely produce severe weather in the Midwest today before working its way to the Northeast as the week progresses. This storm system will drag a cold front that will eventually drop our temperatures by the end of the week by a significant factor. Highs are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s by Friday with a chance of rain mixing with snow at night in to the higher elevations. Tomorrow will be a nice day with highs reaching the 70s and warmer south of the frontal boundary with 80's. These warm temperatures will likely cause enough instability in the Atmosphere to produce isolated spring time thunderstorms. Thursday will be a trancision day as a cold front works in from the west. Generally speaking; expect temperatures to remain mild to warm with a slight chance of scattered showers and storms then cooler and by the end of the week. This weekend wont be a complete washout as sunshine returns by Saturday afternoon and highs returning to the 60s. Fair weather should continue beyond Sunday with a chance of showers returning next week Wednesday.

Weather synopsis: April 3

12:10pm ample sunshine is upon us into the Northeast with summer like heat into the interior. Record braking heat will continue today with high temperatures in the middle to upper 80's and even approaching the 90°F mark in Buffalo and much of western New York State. In most cases this is warmer than we've been all last summer. This record heat in combination with low relative humidity and strong enough winds are creating ripe conditions for wild fires. The National Weather Service has posted Red Flag Warnings for the potential of brush fires for a good portion of western New York State. Cooler conditions however will be felt along the Atlantic shore into New England, New York City and Long Island where highs will be hard pressed to reach 70°F, though it will still be a gorgeous day weather wise. The cooler temperatures near the coast are due to a maritime air mass and a back door cold front that has developed from the cooler temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean. High Pressure system will keep the sunshine going and prevent any precipitation today. The fair weather will continue through next week. Temperatures wont be as warm as they've been across western New York State and should range between 60°F and 70°F next week with the potential for some isolated thunderstorms; then temperatures will return to normal by next weekend. Along the Atlantic we will be warming it up this week in to the middle 70's with fair weather before temperatures return to normal next weekend.

Weather synopsis: March 31

3:09pm conditions are gradually improving in the Northeast as the storm system we've been dealing with exits the region. This storm system has produced an incredible amounts of rain. Officially 8.88" of rain has been recorded with this system in Suffolk County, NY. 6.18" of rain has been reported in Nassau County, NY and nearly 5.0" of rain elsewhere throughout the Tri-state. With this round of precipitation it will put March 2010 in the record books as the rainiest March on record for much of the New York Metropolitan area. The heavy rain produced a good amount of flooding. The Bronx River Parkway along with a number of other Highways where shutdown in both directions yesterday due to the flooding; in Long Island the high surf combined with the heavy rain produced coastal flooding and a lot of beach erosion; the persistent heavy rains along with 50MPH winds caused trees to topple, a slew of damage due to downed trees and flooded basements have been reported. Thankfully the Northeast is in for a streak of phenomenal weather for the coming days. High temperatures will range between 60°F and 80°F with plenty of sunshine to go along with the mild conditions. This is all due to a High pressure system that will move into the Northeast in the wake of the latest super soaker. The High pressure system will provide plenty of sinking air preventing any large mass of clouds from developing. The air flow will be from south to north and this will usher in the warmer temperatures. Highs will run some 20°F to 30°F above the average. The best weather is expected on our Easter weekend with Highs in the 70's and approaching 80°F in some locations. The fair weather should stick around through the beginning of next week, so go out and enjoy the sun; have a catch and enjoy a nice game of Ultimate Frisbee. This will be perfect weather for the start of Baseball season this weekend as the New York Yankees take on the Boston Redsox at Fenway Park this Sunday. Fair weather is also in the forecast for City Field's home opener as the New York Metropolitans take on the Florida Marlins on Monday.

Weather synopsis: March 30

11:05am portions of the Northeast are being soaked with heavy rain. The rain is attributed to a coastal low pressure system that has developed off the Mid-atlantic. This system will continue its track to the North as the day progresses. Rain will come to an end in the Tri-state area by mid afternoon but clouds will linger through the night. Tomorrow will shape up to be a better day weather wise but we cant rule out the chance for some sprinkles in the morning along the coast. Highs approaching 60°F tomorrow through out the region. Ample sunshine and moderating temperatures are in the forecast. Highs this week will easily approach 70°F making for a picture perfect Easter. NCEP forecast models indicate that this fair weather pattern will continue beyond the weekend.