Weather synopsis: February 26

2:00pm a broad area of low pressure is pinwheeling nearly stationary right over the Northeast. This will generate additional snow specifically for the Tri-State area where an additional 10.0" are likely by Saturday morning after receiving about 20.8" of snow officially in Central Park as of 1:00pm this afternoon. Total storm snow accumulations in New York City will range between 20.0" to 30.0" by Saturday morning. This month has broken the all time monthly snowfall record for the month of February in Central Park which was set back in the year 1896 at 30.5", that's a 114 year old record! Else where in to the northern and western suburbs of New York City nearly 40.0" of snow will be common by Saturday morning. Buffalo, NY received around 4.0" to 6.0" of snow however the farther east your go the higher the amounts with 12.0" of snow in Rochester and Syracuse, and about 36.0" in Binghamton, NY. The forecast for the up coming week looks to be more settled. Temperature wise, we will see high temperature readings above freezing for the next few day, this will aid in snow melt but it could lead to urban flooding then re-freezing of melt water at night creating hazardous conditions on untreated surfaces.

Weather synopsis: February 25

12:36pm the gears are in motion as a complex system churns over the Northeast. Snow is falling over much of the region, mostly confined west of the New York State and New England states boarder. The rain/snow line extends south just east of New York City. Through the course of the day however, expect colder air to wrap in to this Nor'easter and change the precipitation to snow into Long Island and parts of New England. The heaviest snow will be confined to northern New Jersey, New York City and then north to Binghamton and locations to the west of the Hudson Valley. Here is where snow accumulations are forecast to top 1 foot and even approach 2 feet around Binghamton. We could end up with 10.0" to 18.0" of snow in New York City with progressively lesser amounts to the east in to Long Island and New England. Heavy snow is expected through out New York State as well. Buffalo, NY should receive up to 10.0" of heavy wet snow with up to 1 foot in to Rochester and Syracuse. Along with the snow, winds will be a factor. the strong forcasted winds combined with heavy wet snow could lead to toppled trees, downed power lines, hundreds of thousands of power-outages and not to mention the high risk of roof collapse. The peak of the storm will occur late this evening in to the over night hours. This system should weaken substantially by Friday however, the upper level low associated with this Nor'easter will meander about through the weekend initiating additional chances of snow through Sunday.

Weather synopsis: February 24

12:00pm a slew of Winter Weather advisories have been posted for much of the Northeast by the National Weather Service in anticipation of a Nor'easter that will impact a large area with significant snowfall. This storm will impact regions that have already received mammoth amounts of snow with this month's dynamic weather pattern. Heavy snow is expected on Thursday and Friday with additional snow on Saturday as the storm whinds down. 1 to 2 feet of snow is likely from Philly north up to Binghampton and Albany. As of the current expectations, NYC should miss the brunt of the storm but not after receiving nearly 8.0" of snow. Warmer air over Long Island should keep precipitation mostly in the form of rain. There is still uncertainty with the storm track which could mean the difference between a rain storm in the Tri-state or an accumulation of over 12.0" of snow in to New York City and White Plains. In to southern New England rain will be the issue from coastal Maine down to Boston and Hartford. Heavy snow will spread inland bringing significant snow in to Rochester and Buffalo as well were up to 8.0" of accumulation are likely. Wind will also be an issue most notably near the coast where 40MPH to 50MPH gusts will make for difficult travel.

Weather synopsis: Frebruary 23

4:00pm a storm system is moving slowly across the Northeast. This storm features rain near the coast and snow inland with a narrow band of mixed precipitation were a maritime air mass and a arctic air mass meet. This low pressure system produced a dreary day in Buffalo yesterday with a mixed bag of precipitations going back and forth between freezing rain, sleet and snow through the day. This storm system will meander about right through the week over the Northeast. This is anticipated to be a deep low pressure system as it phases with another low pressure system later in the week. Given the nature of the storm system's dynamics, there is uncertainty as to what outcomes might transpire, however at this time there is confidence that a wide spread accumulating snow will affect a good part of the Northeast this week between Thursday and Saturday. At this time, a significant snow event is not out of the question. Behind this system a colder air mass will move in dropping temperatures by some 5°F to 15°F. Elsewhere around the Nation, snow is once again affecting the South in to Dallas, TX where up to 6.0" of accumulations are expected. This is the same storm system that is anticipated to phase with a low pressure system over the Northeast.

Weather synopsis: February 19

3:00pm the weather is tranquil right now but this month has been an active one all around the country. Temperatures in the Northeast are right about average and in some cases slightly above the average. The Lake Effect Snow showers have subsided but not before dumping some 3.0" to 6.0" of snow accumulation in Buffalo this week. A storm system will move into the region early next week and it will bring increased chances of snow in the Northeast from the Great Lakes to the Atlanctic coast. Along with the snow, this system should cool down temperatures by 5°F to 15°F with breezy conditions.

Weather synopsis: February 12

1:48pm this February is proving to be an active weather month across the nation. Another storm system is plaguing the nation, this time southern states are being impacted by heavy rain and snow. A storm system is working its way eastward affecting the Gulf coast with wintry precipitation. This same system produced up to 1 foot of snow in Dallas, TX braking an all time snowfall record there. Even the state of Florida is getting snow. Pensacola, FL should receive up to 1.0" of snow with this round of weather. Cities like New Orleans have been put under a Winter Storm watch for the potential for Snow. Here in the Northeast, yet another storm system will move in bringing additional chances for snow in to New York City, Long Island and Boston. NCEP forecast models indicate a clipper system to move in by Tuesday. There is a potential for up to 6.0" of snow in and around the New York City metropolitan area. Here in Buffalo we will continue to see Lake Effect snow showers for the next few days although no significant accumulations are expected at this time. Temperatures will remain marginally cool so no big arctic air intrusions are expected at this time.

Weather synopsis: February 10

9:40pm the blizzard affecting coastal regions of the Northeast is winding down but certainly not after dumping over 1 foot of snow into New York City. Officially 12.0" of snow has been reported in Central Park and 13.0" in the Bronx and another 1.0" to 3.0" inches of additional snow accumulation is expected before the storm completely pull out of the metro area. South of the Tri-state in Philly 15.0" of snow has been reported and over 19.0" of snow reported in Baltimore. To add insult to injury, the winds have been howling near 40MPH creating a blizzard and prolonged white out conditions. This is certainly one for the records as over 100,000 people in 25 States were affected. This is the second storm to affect portions of the Northeast in a matter of just a few days. NCEP forecast models now indicate the potential for yet another storm system of similar proportions to bombard the Northeast with more heavy snow by this up-coming Tuesday! The current persistent storm track of the sub-tropical jet stream combined with a constant flow of cold arctic air by the northern jet stream has created a virtual parade of snow storms aimed at the Northeastern US. It is still too early to accurately predict the impacts of this next round of heavy snow but it is becoming more likely as time progresses that yet another snow storm is on deck.

Weather synopsis: February 9

11:09am a Nor'Easter is in the making as two storm systems that have phased together over night in the Ohio River Valley progresses eastward towards the coast. A third low pressure system is forecast to develop off shore of the Long Island coast tonight and then rapidly intensify. This rapid intensification will produce a bonafied blizzard into the New York City metropolitan area where 1 to 2 feet of snow is likely along with strong winds over 40MPH. This combination of heavy wet snow and strong winds will likely cause power outages and topple down some trees especially near the coast where winds will blow more fierce. Visibilities will drop to zero and produce white out conditions for a prolonged period during the height of the storm. The worst weather will hit the tri-state region right around Noon time and then progress through the early afternoon. Though it will be below freezing some sleet will mix in at times into eastern Long Island as the storm's intensity churns the atmosphere above. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect until 6am on Thursday when the storm finally pulls out of the region. NCEP forecast models indicate that this storm will develop a dry slot, if this is the case it will lessen snowfall totals though a significant amount is still expected regardless. Impact from this storm will be felt from the Great Lakes down to the Mid-atlantic and up to southern New England. The worst of the weather will come with the development of the coast storm that will produce the strong winds from D.C. to Boston.

Weather synopsis: February 8

11:20am a historic Nor'easter has hammered portions of the Mid-atlantic last weekend dumping up to 3 feet of snow in locations in and around the Philly, Baltimore and Washington D.C. corridor. Thankfully this storm strayed away from southern New England and Long Island where only a few snow flurries were reported however, next time we might not be so lucky. NCEP forecast models predict another storm system of similar proportions to develop off the Mid-atlantic coast then move up the eastern seaboard all the while rapidly intensifying into a Nor'easter. This storm will likely impact the Washington D.C. region once again with heavy amounts of snow. This coastal storm will move northward bringing heavy snow to New York City, Long Island and southern New England including Hartford, Providence and Boston. This storm system will also have an impact into western New York and interior Pennsylvania where Winter Storm Watches have been issued. Even Buffalo will get an accumulating snow out of this storm. Though it is still too early to make an accurate snowfall forecast, the heaviest amounts of snow will be along the I-95 corridor from D.C. to Boston including the states of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvanian, southern New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts. This is the most densely populated section of the country and millions of people will be affected by this storm. The current time frame is as follows: Snow will begin by Tuesday in the western fringes including Buffalo, NY then work its way east. The storm will then re-develop off the coast and intensify Tuesday night into Wednesday with the brunt of the storm into New York City and Long Island between midnight Tuesday and midnight Wednesday

Weather synopsis: February 4

11.00am the weather in the Northeast is being dominated by a High Pressure system. This system is providing fair weather. This is the calm before the storm as I expect this area of High Pressure to give way to a storm system tomorrow that will likely produce pretty heavy snowfall for the Mid-atlantic and southern New England. The storm system should re-develop over the Atlantic Ocean and transcend into a full blown Nor'easter. 1-2 feet of snow is not out of the question from Long Island down to the Delmarva peninsula including the big cities like New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington D.C. The heaviest snow should fall right along the coast. This storm system will produce snowfall rates of up to 3.0" per hour at times. In NYC the snow will likely start Friday evening around 9:00pm and continue through the Noon time hour on Saturday. This storm system is due in part to an El Niño weather pattern with a storm track aimed at the Northeast. NCEP forecast models hint towards a continuation of this storm track, if that is the case I expect this month to be an active weather month for the region.

Weather synopsis: February 1

3:15pm temperatures in the Northeast are bearable ranging between mid 30s along the coast, mid 20s in the interior and 10s into Norther New England. These temperatures are rather seasonal for this time of year and should stick around trhough the week. Tomorrow light Lake Effect Snow showers could redevelop but this wont be as impressive as last weeks snow. Tonight clouds will increase and snow flurries will develop late. The chance for snow will increase into the afternoon hours tomorrow and continue into the evening in Buffalo. Winds will be light and any snow that does fall will not amount to much, maybe less than an inch of snow. Tomorrow is Ground Hog's Day and we'll see if we have another 6 weeks of winter or an early spring to look forward to.

Weather synopsis: January 29

7:00pm temperatures through out the Northeast have been cold to say the least. Temperatures have been in the 0s to 10s with wind chill values much colder. Expect more of the same temperature wise as this stubborn air mass lingers tomorrow and into our Saturday. After Sunday we can expect moderating temperatures, though it will still be cold it wont be nearly as cold as its been. This past week in Buffalo over 1 foot of snow has fallen with the latest round of Lake Effect Snow. Regions to the south are also expecting some significant snowfall as well as moderate icing. Looking forward, Lake Effect Snow will likely re-develop sometime this up coming week producing additional amounts of snow across Western New York.

Weather synopsis: January 28

12:30pm a cold sharp front associated with a clipper system is working its way through the Northeast. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the 30's, behind this frontal boundary temperatures have taken a significant plunge with current readings in the 10's in Buffalo. Expect falling temperatures through the day as this round of arctic air settles in over the Northeast. Bone chilling cold will be felt for the next few days. Along with the low temperatures winds will also be an issue essentially making it feel much colder than it is. Winds should gust up and over 40MPH. Wind chill values will be well below zero in most cases. This cold front is also creating enough instability to produce wide spread snow showers across the region. Reports from NYC of up to 1.0" of snow have been observed with another inch not out of the question by day's end. Over the Great Lakes the passage of this cold front has re-oriented the winds over the lakes producing more Lake Effect snow over the lee-ward side of the lakes. Total Lake Effect snow accumulations in and around Buffalo should amount between 7.0" to 16.0" by the time the Lake Effect activity tappers off this Saturday.

Weather synopsis: January 27

10:50am temperatures in the Northeast range between the mid 20's across the eastern Great Lakes and mid 30's along the coast. There is a Lake Effect Snow Advisory in effect for the city of Buffalo as a southwesterly wind over Lake Erie is producing moderate snow showers. Additional snow accumulations by days end could range between 4.0" to 7.0". These Lake Effect snow bands will develop south of Buffalo and work their way north to Niagara Falls. The heaviest snowfall amounts will be in the most persistent squalls. Lake Effect snow is forecast to redevelop for the remainder of the work week as the wind orientation will be right off the Lakes with another round of significant snow on Thursday likely. Winds are forecast to change course by Friday, the Lake Erie snow machine will cease, total snow accumulations for the week will range between 6.0" to 12.0" with some locations picking up more than that. Temperature wise, extreme cold will be felt across much of the Northeast as the thick of the current arctic air mass moves in from Canada. High temperatures forecast from Thursday through Saturday will be in the 10's and 20's in the Northeast with lows below Zero to the 10's, when you factor in the wind it will fell much colder so bundle up. NCEP forecast models have hinted towards a potential coastal Low Pressure System affect the Major cities along the coast this weekend, as of now the forecast models predict a blocking High Pressure System that should veer the coastal low to the south into the Mid-atlantic. This should spare the big cities like New York and Boston from a potential Nor'Easter,

Weather synopsis: January 26

2:20pm temperatures in the Northeast are divided by a cold front that is working its way on eastward. Ahead of the front temperatures are in the 40's with the last rements of this week's the storm system taking its final toll. Behind the front temperatures arein the 20's and 30's with Lake Effect snow showers off Lakes Erie and Ontario. Locations east of Lake Ontario near Watertown could pick up between 6.0" and 12.0" of snow with in the next 24hrs. Locations downwind of Lake Erie will pick up an additional 1.0" to 3.0" of snow including the city of Buffalo. South of Buffalo up to 6.0" of additional snow accumulations are in the forecast as those Lake Effect snow bands could be more presistant. A chance for Lake Effect snow will linger through much of the week across the eastern Great Lakes with a presistant cold wind. NCEP forecast models agree that this cold pattern will carry on for the foreseeable future with a storm system likely impacting the coastal regions of the Northeast especially NYC and Long Island with significant snow and wind by this weekend.

Weather synopsis: January 25

7:20pm the storm system that produced the heavy rain in the region is moving away. This storm has produce impressive rainfall with 2.20" reported in Erie County. Flood warnings were issued with the rain combined with melting snow causing water levels to rise. In the wake of the storm, temperatures began to drop steadily as time progressed. The forecast temperatures will continue to drop through the week as an arctic air mass continues to settle in. By the end of the work week High temperatures should top off in the middle to upper 10's across Western New York. Winds are expected to change directions and will be oriented off Lakes Erie and Ontario. This will produce Lake Effect snow showers. Locally 1.0" to 3.0" of snow can be expected with higher amounts into Syracuse and locations south of Buffalo. By the end of the work week yet another storm system will make its way into the Northeast. Primarily coastal regions will be impacted as this will be more of a coastal storm. With cold temperatures in the forecast we could be dealing with snow along the major cities from Boston to New York and farther south into the Mid-atlantic into Washington D.C. and Philladelphia this Friday and Saturday.

Weather synopsis: January 24

10:40pm the weather across much of the eastern third of the nation has been rather soggy to say the least. A rather dynamic storm system has taken the place of the High pressure system that produced the fair weather on Friday and Saturday across much of the Northeast. Flood advisories have been issued up and down the eastern sea board where heavy amounts of rain is being observed and can be expected to continue. Regionally forecast rainfall could very well range between 1.0" across the interior to 3.0" along the coast. South of the region the heavy rain could be accompanied with some embedded thunderstorms, some of which could produce severe weather and locally heavier amounts of rain. The rainfall is forecast to dissipate from west to east across the region on Monday. This storm system is currently dragging a sharp cold front and with its passage temperatures will plummet through out the course of the week as an arctic air mass settles in. As the storm system pulls away and temperatures drop, wind orientation across the Great Lakes have the potential to produce lake effects snow showers for a good portion of the week. This arctic air mass combined with the current progressive weather pattern could yield a snowier time period ahead. NCEP forecast models seem to agree as data seems correlate with colder temperatures for the days ahead.

Weather synopsis: January 22-25

At 1:20am temperatures in the Northeastern U.S. are pretty chilly but still above average ranging generally between 10's in the interior to low 30's along the coast. Temperatures continue to oscillate between seasonable conditions and mild temperatures as the jet-stream reconfigures itself producing a dynamic weather pattern. The weather in the Northeast is being dominated by High Pressure creating sinking air and a chillier night relatively speaking. This High Pressure system will act as a blocking mechanism as it should divert a storm system that is moving up from the South and steer it clear from the region. As the High Pressure system progresses eastward, its clockwise flow will shift winds from the south again, re-introducing mild temperatures into the region. A storm system will move in from the west and likely impact the region by the latter half of the weekend. With mild temperatures in place rain will be on tap. With the recent Arctic Cold invasion and some areas still covered in snow combined with mild temperatures and heavy rain this situation will likely create flooding. Rain should continue through Monday. Behind this system temperatures will likely take a tumble. Looking ahead, NCEP forecast models suggest another period of bitter cold so don't put away the Arctic gear just yet, we've only entered the thick of the season and old man winter always has tricks up his sleeves.

Weather synopsis: January 18

At midnight the temperature in Bronx County, NY is 43°F under mostly cloudy skies. The rain storm that has impacted the region this past Sunday has produced a considerable amount of rain and wind. Rainfall amounts have been recorded over 0.5" in NYC to greater than 1.5" over Long Island combined with a melting snow pack causing some flooding. Considerable wind gusts have also been reported ranging between 40MPH in the Bronx to over 50MPH at Shinnecock inlet in Long Island. Unseasonably mild conditions continue after weeks of bone chilling cold, we reached a high temperature of 50°F today. Temperatures are running some 15° to 20° above the average for January standards. Climatologically speaking, these mild temperatures aren't that unusual as it is typical to see a prolonged period of mild temperatures in the month of January within the contiguous United States. This phenomenon is known as the January Thaw. These mild conditions however will likely be short lived as we are only entering the thick of the Winter season. A cold front will sweep the region tomorrow and drop our temperatures to more seasonable readings tho not nearly as cold as we've experienced thus far this Winter season. This cold front has the potential to initiate a few light snow showers within the region Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, I want to emphasize the word light; any precipitation that does fall shouldn't have any considerable impact on any event plans or travel arrangements. Looking ahead, temperatures will likely oscillate between cold and mild readings for the foreseeable future. The next real chance for any considerable precipitation will arrive by the weeks end. A storm system will likely impact the region on Friday the 22nd through Saturday the 23rd with a mix of Rain and Snow as temperatures will run right on the precipice of supporting frozen and liquid precipitation. Looking far ahead, NCEP forecast models are predicting a colder pattern to return to the region with the possibility of a storm system impacting the Northeast region near Ground Hog's Day. I want to mention that a forecast this far into the future is subject to change as weather, especially this time of year; is dynamic and virtually unpredictable even with the most sophisticated forecasting equipment and super computer calculations.

Weather synopsis: January 16

Currently in the Bronx the temperature is 42°F under mostly clear skies. High temperatures today should hit 50°F as our warm streak continues. A storm system over the Gulf of Mexico will be moving northward to our region by Sunday the 17th. This low pressure system will feature heavy rain and strong winds. The low should move out by Tuesday and in its wake colder temperatures should move in. On Wednesday a clipper system will move in from Canada and has the potential to produce steady snow showers.

Weather synopsis: January 15

At 9:19am the temperature in the Bronx is 38°F with an overcast sky. Warm weather has infiltrated the region with high temperatures returning to the 40's. This temperature rebound is the result of a shift in the weather pattern that will allow the subtropical jet-stream to bring milder conditions. A storm system brewing over the Gulf of Mexico will initiate heavy rain an possible severe thunderstorms for the Southeast this week then it will begin to work its way northward up the east coast sometime this weekend into early next week. With warmer temperatures influencing our weather the precipitation will likely fall in the form of rain for the most part and it could be heavy at times. In the wake of this system a cold front will drop temperatures by Tuesday 19th.

Weather synopsis: January 7-14

At 1:23pm the temperature in the Bronx is 37°F with fair skies. Today has been the warmest day of the year thus far as we managed to climb above the freezing point. Clouds will be on the increase tonight ahead of a clipper system that will arrive in the early morning on Friday. This system will produce some light to moderate snow across the region that could accumulate 1.0" to 2.0" by the time the precipitation stops early Friday afternoon. Following this system a cold front will drop temperatures once more for early next week. NCEP forecast models are indicating a rebound in temperatures by late next week. This should bring a much needed opportunity for milder temperatures into the tri-state region at least temporarily before temperatures return to a colder range.

Weather synopsis: January 2-6

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON, NY HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND. At 2pm the current temperature in The Bronx is 25°F with an overcast sky and snow showers in the area. Today will be blustery with winds howling over 30MPH and gusting up and over 50MPH. This combination of cold air and wind will make it feel much colder than the actual air temperature. Wind chills will be in the single digits. A band of moderate snow has developed and is going to affect eastern Long Island with 2.0" to 5.0" of new snow. The snow combined with a strong wind will create near white-out conditions periodically throughout the day over Long Island. NYC will experience some on and off light snow and could pick up an additional 1.0" of snow before its all said and done. The cold and windy conditions will stick around so expect a frigid Sunday. Winds will subside by Monday but it will remain cold through the week. The next chance of precipitation should come by Friday with a potential coastal storm developing. NCEP forecast models are in disagreement as to what track this storm system might take, some bring it far enough off shore that we will have a sunny day, some bring it close enough to the coast to give us another snow event.

Weather synopsis: January 1

The current temperature in the Bronx is 33°F with an overcast sky and light snow. 2010 has arrived like a lion with a Nor'easter churning over the waters of the Gulf of Maine. This system will continue to influence the weather over the tri-state region with light snow showers and blustery conditions through our Sunday. A moderate snow band may develop sometime on Saturday and Sunday that could affect parts of eastern Long Island with accumulating snow with lighter snow in NYC before the system finally pulls away. In the wake of this storm cold weather will prevail with temperatures struggling to reach the freezing point at least through the entire first week of the New Year. By Friday the 8th NCEP forecast models are hinting toward a slight possibility of another coastal low pressure system forming off the east coast that could have a potential impact on our weather.

Weather synopsis: December 31

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON, NY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM. Currently in the Bronx the temperature is 30°F with overcast skies and moderate snow falling. Our coastal storm that we've been tracking over the past few weeks now has pulled a fast one on us. The precipitation has developed earlier than expected. As temperatures still haven't had a chance to moderate much a deeper pocket of cold air is in place and has allowed the precipitation to fall as all snow for the majority of the morning. Expect snow accumulations to range between 2.0" across Long Island to 5.0" as you head away from the coast. NYC can end up with 1.0" to 3.0" before this pocket of precipitation moves away. Expect the snow to mix with sleet and some rain later on as we head into the afternoon hours. There will be a lull in the precipitation so we will have a pocket of dry weather for a period today but very light rain and snow showers could return just in time for the ball drop in Time Square. Behind this system we will be left with cold temperatures and gusty winds once again making it feel much colder than the actual thermometer reading. On Saturday and Sunday we will also have some snow flurries develop as this storm intensifies off the New England coast over the Gulf of Main. The bitterly cold air will stick around. This will set the stage for a second round of snow by next week with another potential coastal storm forming though it is too early to tell.

Weather synopsis: December 30

At 11:50am temperatures in the Bronx are in the 20's with partly cloudy skies. What a difference a day makes, yesterday we were talking about the bone chilling cold; in contrast, today its rather pleasant without the wind. High temperatures should climb just above 32°F with clouds on the increase tonight. The top headline has been the potential New Years day Nor'easter, NCEP forecast models have been reorienting the configuration of this coastal storm day by day. Latest model analysis now indicate that our region will escape the brunt of this storm system as the storm sets its sight on norther New England, though we will still fell some impacts as the low travels up the coast. I still expect a rain/snow/sleet scenario beginning around 2pm New Years eve, the precipitation will likely change to plain old rain as temperatures increase slightly through the evening. By Friday, a mixture of rain and sleet will be on tap and should move out by evening. Saturday, colder air moves into the picture as this coastal storm intensifies over the Gulf of Maine an wraps some frigid air temperatures behind it. This might create some scattered snow flurries but the main story will likely be the frigid air and the wind on Saturday. The cold conditions should stick around for the foreseeable future, I find that the best way to combat the cold is to dress in layers, wear a scarf or two, and if anything else make sure to wear a nice warm hat that covers the ears and the face.

Weather synopsis: December 29

At 8:37pm the temperature in the Bronx is 16°F (wind chill -1°F) under chrystal clear skies with gusty winds. Needless to say, today was a cold one to say the least as a cold front ushered in an arctic air mass. This front also whipped up the winds making air temperatures fell much colder. Winds have been reported between 50MPH and 65MPH all over the region. A wind gust of 53MPH has been reported in parts of NYC, in Suffolk county winds were reported up to 61MPH and a gust of 63MPH was reported in Nassau county. Winds should subside tonight but it will remain bitterly cold. Temperatures will be relatively warmer tomorrow but still rather chilly in the 30's. It wont feel nearly as cold as today did as winds should be light and variable. On New Years Eve a coastal storm will develop off the Delmarva peninsula south of Long Island. This Storm system will rapidly intensify as it churns up the North East coast. Latest NCEP forecast model data now indicate that this coastal storm will veer slightly east of my previous projected storm track. This will prove to be a tricky forecast indeed. This eastward jog could yield a snowier scenario for the greater NYC metropolitan area. It now looks as if the precipitation will likely start as a light snow possibly mixing with sleet and rain along the immediate coast around the 2pm hour. This light precipitation will likely subside around 9pm. Temperatures will likely hold steady and increase slightly near the midnight hour so any precipitation that fall at the time of the ball drop will be mostly in the liquid variety. Then as the storm deepens it will likely initiate a rain/snow mix in the early morning on Friday. If enough cold air wraps into the system we could have a period of light to moderate snow with rain and sleet mixing in from time to time on Friday. Across Long Island precipitation will like be mostly rain but here too, snow could be developing if it gets cold enough. By Saturday this storm system will experience an explosive strengthening phase just east of the New England coast as it meanders about over the Gulf of Maine. Parts of northern New England will experience monumental amounts of snow. Even Boston could potentially whind up with significant snow totals. We cant rule out the chance of seeing some snow as far south as NYC and Long Island on Saturday with this intense coastal storm. Only time will tell as to what events will transpire with this New Year storm. Though it is only a few days away, due to the dynamics of this coastal storm it is too early to make a precise forecast.

Update: New Years Day Storm

At 9pm the temperature in the Bronx is 30°F under partly cloudy skies with gusty winds. Here is the latest analysis of the potential impact from the projected New Years Day coastal storm. Precipitation will likely start as snow initially in time for the Ball Drop in Time Square across coastal regions including NYC and Long Island before warm Atlantic air wraps around the storm to produce a mix with rain then eventually change to all rain by early Friday morning. NCEP forecast models are indicating that cold air will wrap back around the storm system at some point in time between Friday late afternoon and early Saturday morning, we could see the rain mix with snow and sleet then change back to all snow at some point in time. This is a preliminary analysis of a scenario that is still days away and any change in the storm orientation and projected track can have a big impact on this forecast.

Weather synopsis: December 28

At 11am the temperature in the Bronx is 38°F with clearing skies. An Upper level Low pressure system has produced some light precipitation this morning, mostly in the form of rain as temperatures were above freezing. This system will feature an associated cold front that will sweep the region today, so don't expect the mild conditions we've enjoyed yesterday to continue today. In fact, temperatures will likely be falling steadily through the day. Low temperatures tonight should bottom out in the upper teens to lower twenties. The departing upper-level Low combined with a High pressure system in its wake will create a tight pressure gradient developing breezy conditions today and tomorrow making it feel much colder than the actual air temperature. Winds will be steady at 25-35MPH with higher gusts. Looking ahead, NCEP forecast models have been indicating a coastal storm developing potentially near the New Year holiday. The exact track and intensity of this system is rather uncertain at this time, as is the case with many North Eastern winter storms, if this storm veers just 50 miles to the east or west of the projected storm track it can mean the difference between a classic Nor'easter with snow and wind or a cold rain on January 1st. The storm track will determine the exact position of the 32° line. At this point in time it is too early to make a precise forecast of how this coastal storm will transpire, however it is likely that we will have a coastal storm brewing on New Years day. As of current forecast model analysis, the precipitation should hold off until after the Ball Drop in Time Square but it will be cold nevertheless so bundle up.

Weather synopsis: December 27

At noon the temperature in the Bronx is 45°F with chrystal clear skies, expecting a high around 50°F. The storm system responsible for last night's rain has moved out of the region. In its wake we are left with very mild temperatures and fair weather, however this will be short lived. An upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes associated with the same departing storm will move through the Northeast. Precipitation wise, this system should have enough instability to produce some light snow with little accumulations on Monday and early Tuesday as it drags a sharp cold front. The main feature with this storm will be gusty winds and then a sharp temperature drop. Temperatures will drop by some 15° to 25° by Tuesday. This will set the stage for a potential significant snow storm likely around the New Year holiday. Though it is still too early to make a precise forecast, over the past weeks NCEP forecast models have been more inclined towards a rather impressive coastal storm developing with a 1,2 punch to the region. The first round is likely on January 1st or 3rd with round two likely January 8th or so. NCEP forecast models indicate temperatures cold enough for frozen precipitation for the most part. Both scenarios have the potential to produce significant snow respectively. I want to reiterate however that this is still days away and it is too early to call any shots. Weather is very dynamic especially this time of year and it is difficult to accurately forecast a storm of this magnitude this far in advance.