Weather synopsis: Monday November 22

11:59pm today was a mild November day as temperatures climbed up to the 60s - Persistent showers and rumbles of thunder earlier on Monday affected a good portion of the Northeast; these were attributed to a warm front that swept the region and introduced a warm, moist air mass. The gears are in motion for a shift in the weather pattern as we progress through the course of the Thanks Giving week. This shift will occur in stages, the first of which will take place Tuesday. Unsettled weather will return to the Northeast as a cold front passes by, initiating heavy rain over western New York during the morning hours. This line of showers will work its way east through the day; behind the cold front temperatures will drop from the 50s and 60s to the 30s and 40s. A better day will be in store on Wednesday despite the cold temperatures. By the latter portion of the week, the next storm system will usher in the next stage in the weather pattern shift. On Thursday; Thanks Giving Day, temperatures will moderate somewhat and a chilly rain will break out across the Northeast a head of an approaching cold front. Once this secondary cold front passes on the evening of Thanks Giving, a strong and cold wind will be oriented over the Great Lakes producing the first wide spread Lake Effect Snow event of the season. An accumulating snowfall is likely east of Lake Erie on Friday with the steadiest snows expected to fall just south of Buffalo. The snow will fly through Saturday. A secondary Lake Effect Snow Squall will develop over Lake Ontario on Saturday and will likely produce the greatest amounts of snow accumulation over the Allegheny Plateau. The long range forecast for the month of December calls for a cold and snowy start to the month across the Northeast just in time for the end-of-semester hustle and bustle across most Colleges and Universities, the latter part of the month of December is looking to be moderating, temperature wise, before a deep freeze rounds up the end of the year.

Weather synopsis: Saturday November 20

12:46pm its been a cold end to the week after a stretch of warm weather that lasted from late last week through the first half of this week. The roller coaster temperature ride will continue as a warm air mass prepares to overtake the Northeast during the first half of Thanks Giving week. Temperatures will likely reach 60 degrees on Monday; the mild weather will be accompanied by rain. The rain will be associated with a cold front that will slowly creep towards the east coast through the course of week. Behind this cold front temperatures are much colder, in fact this has been the coldest air mass of the season so far with a deep winter like chill. The cold front will finally sweep through the Northeast by Friday. The forecast for Thanks Giving day calls for rain along the coast with a mixture of snow and rain away from the coast. On Black Friday, the cold front will clear the coast; though it will be very cold it should be a nice day for the Northeast with the exception of the lower Great Lakes region where Lake Effect Snow will develop.

Weather synopsis: Tuesday November 16

11:59pm the storm that was forecast to arrive late this week has arrived earlier than anticipated into a relatively warm air mass sparing the Northeast from a potential winter storm. However; this system has produced heavy rain through Tuesday evening and will continue on Wednesday before diminishing. As this low departs, winds will gust up to 45 miles per hour, for this reason the National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory through Wednesday evening for a good portion of the Northeast including Buffalo and New York City/ Long Island. Along with the gusty winds, temperatures will gradually cool down behind this system by Thursday and a narrow band of light lake effect snow showers could develop affecting western New York along the lower Great Lakes Thursday evening and Friday morning. Thanks Giving week is looking a little tricky as forecast models are in disagreement as to what might transpire. Nevertheless, it does appear as if after a very slight and brief warm up this upcoming weekend our temperatures will be on the downward trend.

Weather synopsis: Friday November 12

1:32am the stretch of fair weather perpetuates as a high pressure system continues to influence the weather over the Northeast. The pleasant weather is expected to last through Saturday, high temperature will top 60 degrees once again. Despite foggy conditions during the morning hours, the fog will lift and sunshine will overtake the sky by high noon. Nevertheless; we are now coming in to mid-November and these spells of warmth are short-lived. Forecast models are indicating that there will be a change in the weather pattern in the weeks approaching Thanks Giving. We will notice this change late next week as the first of perhaps multiple intrusions of cold arctic air interlopes in the Northeast. As per the current model data, there exists the potential of a storm brewing by late next, Thursday November 18th. There is a likelihood of an accumulating snow event over the Northeast. Though it is still too early to say for certain weather or not a winter storm is in the horizon late next week, air temperatures will be colder. In addition to the cold temperatures, the Jet-stream will be oriented in a way that will be favorable for wintry weather in time for the busiest travel period of the year.

Weather synopsis: Wednesday November 3

2:08am the brisk chill that has enveloped the Northeast has certainly reminded us that the anticipated winter season is well underway. On the evening of Halloween portions of the Northeast experienced a taste of winter as an upper level low pressure system produced enough instability with in the atmosphere to produce precipitation; the cold air mass in place across western New York was chilly enough to support a light mixture of Sleet/Snow/Rain for a duration of approximately 30 minutes to an hour. Now, atmospheric dynamics are in motion and yet another blast of cold air gets ready to be injected in to the eastern portion of the United States from the north. This shot of cold air will trail a cold front that will be moving south from Canada on Thursday November 4th. As this cold front plunges south, a Low Pressure System over the Gulf of Mexico states will ride along the Jet Stream. The Jet Stream will be oriented much like it would during a Nor'easter during the winter; the only difference is that, though it will be cold, the coldest air will not have reached the coast in time to support a significant snow event for the major cities of the Northeast. However, there is a good chance of seeing light snow flurries once this coastal storm pulls away. This will allow a dense cold air mass to infiltrate the Northeast from the north towards the south. Winds will be gusting between 35 and 45 miles per hour from Friday in to Saturday, this flow will be conducive for the development of Lake Effect Snow. These Lake Effect Snow squalls will likely reach all the way to the coast producing very light Snow Flurries perhaps in to New York City, at this time no accumulation is expected. As you head further north towards the Great Lakes, here it is likely to receive a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces and cars. There is the potential to see a few inches of snow in some regions along the Great Lakes where these Lake Effect Snow squalls are most persistent. The precipitation will persist through the day on Saturday November 6th before settling down. NCEP forecast models indicate that a warm up should follow this small winter blast early next week before yet another shot of cold air arrives towards the latter portion of next week.

Hurricane Season 2010: Update October 31

(Click Image To Enlarge)
The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is living up to predictions by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center. Since the Hurricane Season began in early June of this year there have been an above average number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. This year to date there have been 19 named tropical systems in the Atlantic; of these, 12 have reached Hurricane strength (winds equal to or greater than 74 miles per hour.) Out of these 12 Hurricanes, 5 have achieved Major Hurricane status (category 3 Hurricane or stronger). The 5 major Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year to date in chronological order are:

1- Hurricane Danielle August 21- August 31
Maximum sustained wind speeds: 135 miles per hour Category 4
Minimum central pressure: 942 millibars

2- Hurricane Earl August 25- September 5
Maximum sustained wind speeds: 145 miles per hour Category 4
Minimum central pressure:928 millibars

3- Hurricane Igor September 8- September 21
Maximum sustained wind speeds: 155 miles per hour Category 4~5
Minimum central pressure: 925 millibars

4- Hurricane Julia September 12- September 20
Maximum sustained wind speeds: 135 miles per hour Category 4
Minimum central pressure: 950 millibars

5- Hurricane Karl September 14- September 18
Maximum sustained wind speeds: 120 miles per hour Category 3
Minimum central pressure: 961 millibars

Weather synopsis: Tuesday October 28

2:19 pm a very impressive Low Pressure system is deepening over the northern Great Plains of the United States. This Low Pressure system is packing quite a punch; it has produced powerful storms that have ripped through major metropolitan regions like Chicago. Now, the cold front associated with this storm system; the same cold front that produced the damaging storms in Chicago is racing towards the east. Because of the dynamics of this storm, this line of strong storms will likely hold up as they approach western New York this evening. Ahead of this squall line of thunder storms gusty winds will blow from a south westerly direction. This will usher in a warm air mass today with temperatures likely topping out in the middle 70s. The force of the wind will increase as the front approaches by 6:00pm or 7:00pm this evening. This line of storms has already prompted Tornado watches and warnings over the Ohio River Valley. I would not be surprised if we see severe thunder storm advisories posted for western New York as the frontal boundary approaches. The stormy weather will then make its way to the Atlantic coast this latter this evening producing unsettled weather in to New York City; by the time these storms reach the coast. Like I mentioned before, the same front that will produce the unsettled weather is only one part of a much larger, more powerful Low Pressure System over the northern Great Plains. This storm will turn into a wind storm tomorrow over the Great Lakes with winds gusting over 40 miles per hour. Over the northern Great Plains, this system will produce blizzard like conditions for the first snow fall of the season for that region. Eventually this cold air mass will infiltrate the Northeast; the cold air mass will likely move in by Friday October 29th and will drop temperatures to near average levels. Until then however, temperatures will run in the 60s and 70s for day time highs.

Weather synopsis: October 20, 2010

10:47pm batten down the hatches, it is breezy out there to say the least. Winds will continue to howl through Thursday in excess of 40 miles per hour. In addition to the wind we will have to contend with precipitation over the lower Great Lakes. A Low Pressure System over the northern Great Lakes and southern Canada is working its way towards the east. This system will introduce a cold front in to the region. Rain will likely break out tonight across the lower Great Lakes and persist through the Thursday. Depending on the timing of the cold air and the duration of the precipitation, there is a possibility for the air temperatures in the upper atmosphere to be just cold enough to support a Rain and Snow mixture at the surface from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning so don't be surprised if you notice some snow falling tomorrow evening. What ever snow that does fall if any will be brief and should not accumulate. Nevertheless conditions will be hazardous, it would be advisable to give your self extra time when heading out. Rain will also develop towards the Northeast coast as the cold front progresses east towards the Atlantic. Here the precipitation will more than likely remain all rain. Temperatures tomorrow will be tumbling as the cold front will usher in a brisk air mass. Initially high temperatures across the lower Great Lakes will range in the 50s and 60's along the coast. Then as the cold front passes temperatures will begin to drop in to the 30s and 40s.

Weather synopsis: Saturday October 2

11:53am an area of low pressure is crossing over the Great Lakes today. This system is being enhanced by the relatively warmer lake waters compared to the chilly air mass setting in. Unsettled weather will over take the western New York region late tonight; the rain will get steadier towards Sunday morning and last through the early afternoon hours. This low pressure system will then redevelop off the east coast by Monday and produce more rain over regions that have been flooded during this past weeks deluge. Generally, expect a cool damp weekend for western New York State and expect plenty of sunshine along the Northeastern coast through Sunday then a cool damp rain will over take the entire Northeast for the majority of the week, sunshine should return on Thursday Obtober 7th.

Weather synopsis: Friday October 1

12:19pm a slew of flash flood and wind advisories are still in effect all over the Northeast as a bizarre weather pattern continues to introduce a stream of tropical moisture to the region. It seems as if the worst is over for a good portion of the eastern United States with the exception of New England where the heavy rain will continue today. It wont be until Saturday when this weather pattern finally shifts and allows a cool and dry air mass to infiltrate the region. This will be a brisk air mass and will likely produce the first frost and freeze advisories of the season for much of the Northeast signifiying the end of the growing season. It might be a good idea to start to bring any plants indoors for those of you with a green thumb. Highs will generally stay in the 50s for the most part with lows in the 30s and 40s, though it will generally be about 10° warmer along the coast for the coming week. At the moment we have no significant chance of precipitation this week but that could change as the weather is dynamic in nature and can change at a moments notice.

Weather synopsis: Wednesday September 29

12:10pm an unusual weather pattern has set up over the eastern United States. A High Pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean commonly referred to as the Bermuda High is acting as a blocking mechanism not allowing the Jet Stream to oscillate. This has produced a frontal boundary that is acting like a conduit for tropical disturbances; these tropical entities develop in the western Caribbean Sea then race northward up the eastern sea board. Currently Tropical Storm Nicole is one of those tropical entities that has developed and is expected to produce the next round of heavy rain. This feed of tropical moisture will likely produce flooding up and down the eastern United States; the significant threat for flooding has prompted flash flood watches and warnings from the Carolinas north to New York State and New England. The rain will overtake the region by Thursday and continue through Friday evening. Expect excessive amounts of precipitation and flooding. Also, due to the dynamics of the atmosphere producing strong gusty winds near 40 miles per hour combined with soaking rain some trees will easily topple over. In addition, the wind shear in the atmosphere could even produce an isolated Tornado or two. High temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s in the Northeast but will take a tumble by Saturday. As the frontal boundary finally moves away from the coast on Saturday it will usher in a cool air mass that should drop temperatures by 10°F to 20°F.

Weather synopsis: Tuesday September 28

11:55am THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE TRISTATE REGION INCLUDING ALL 5 BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY AND NASSAU COUNTY UNTIL 6:00PM. A parade of tropical disturbances will ride up along the east coast and will produce magnanimous amounts of rain for some areas through Friday. This weather pattern that has set up along the east coast will also produce strong rotation in the atmosphere and making conditions ripe for the development of Tornadic activity. Keep an eye to the sky and be prepared to seek shelter as we very well could see a repeat of the violent storms this past Summer.

Weather synopsis: Sunday September 26

8:41pm today was a lovely early Fall day with low relative humidity and temperatures, thou cool were comfortable. Tonight we'll drop down to the upper 40s for interior regions of the Northeast and 50s along the New England coast. An area of low pressure is developing over the Southeastern United States. This Low Pressure System is producing much needed rain for a good portion of the east. Tomorrow we will track this Low as it moves ever so slowly towards the north. As this system pinwheels northward it will generate a good amount of rain for much of the east through Wednesday. NCEP forecast models indicate that this will be a persistent weather pattern and should last through this week and perhaps into early next week. Though it is unlikely that we will receive torrential downpours every day this week, we will be dealing with at least a chance of rain through the weekend. Rain can be expected tomorrow especially during the evening going through Tuesday and early Wednesday.

Wether synopsis: Friday September 24

5:42pm Boy was is a hot one today, temperatures soared through the 80s and flirting with 90°F. In fact the record High temperature for today was set in Buffalo, NY at 88°F officially. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s were common through out the Northeast with 90s and above across the Mid-Atlantic. This heat is due to an approaching Cold Front to the west of the region. Ahead of the Cold Front we have a strong southerly wind flow, this caused the high winds today along with the hot temperatures. Tonight expect more wind, clouds and a slight chance of a rain shower as the Cold Front passes overhead. Tonight will be a night of transition as a much colder air mass settles in behind the Cold Front. Temperatures for tomorrow will be noticeably colder to say the least for the interior sections of the Northeast; High temperatures should be some 20-30 degrees cooler than today ranging in the 50s for western New York State. Highs along the Atlantic shore will be in the lower 80s with low humidity. The Atlantic Hurricane Season remains active; NCEP forecast models indicate that there will be a threat of a tropical system for the Gulf of Mexico and/or the Southeast in to next weekend. Up dates will be posted accordingly.

Hurricane Season 2010: Update September 21

11:39pm The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is showing no signs of slowing down as we introduce Tropical Storms Lisa to the picture. Tropical Storm Lisa is the 12th named system of the season so far. This system developed this morning from a tropical wave that has been meanderings about off of the coast of Africa just south of Cape Verde. As of the 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Lisa has maximum sustained wind of 45 miles per hour and it is nearly stationary right now, Lisa is barley moving towards the north with a froward speed of 4 miles per hour. At this time Tropical Storm Lisa is not expected to be a threat to any land mass. We are also monitoring a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. This system is in a favorable environment for further development and could become our next tropical storm in the next 24hrs to 48hrs, this area of thunder storms will be monitored as time progresses as it does pose a threat to land. Also in the Atlantic, we are still monitoring Hurricane Igor as it by-passes Newfoundland with strong winds, high surf and heavy rain.

Weather Synopsis: Monday September 21

11:11am High Pressure will slide towards the coast today producing a good deal of fair weather; in its wake a southerly wind flow will warm up temperatures for the majority of the region. High temperatures today should range between 70 along the coast and 80 for interior regions of the Northeast. Tonight will remain fair with temperatures ranging in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Tomorrow an unstable air mass is forecast to work its way in to western New York and is likely to trigger some scattered showers and thunder storms, the weather should pleasent remain towards the east approaching the coast. Temperatures will range between 70 in the interior regions of the North East to 80 along coastal regions.

Weather Synopsis: Monday September 20

2:19pm More Sunny weather than cloudy skies today for the majority of the region as an area of High Pressure intrudes the Northeast; this high pressure system will produce a pleasant September air mass for today. Temperatures will generally range in the middle 60s to the 70s with low humidity. Tonight the same High Pressure system will produce clear skies, temperatures ranging slightly below average between 50s along the coast 40s in to interior regions of the Northeast. The High Pressure system will influence the weather in to tomorrow as well. Winds will change directions as the area of High Pressure moves towards the coast. This will allow temperatures to rise, expect a warmer day tomorrow especially from western New York State to the Ohio River Valley. Highs will generally range between lower to middle 70s along the coast to the lower to middle 80s in western New York State.

Sept 16, 2010 NYC storm

Wind Gust of up to 122 miles per hour associated with a squalline of Supercell Thunderstorms produced extensive damage in New York City and fatally injured one person this past Thursday. The National Weather Service confirmed that this storm produced 2 Tornadoes and a Microburst in New York City proper. This event marks the 3rd Tornado in New York City in less than two months. This also brings the historical record for Tornadoes in New York City up to 10 since records have been kept. Here is a video recorded in Corona in the borough of Queens. This video is pretty intense, it looks more like a scene from Florida than New York City.

Hurricane Season 2010: Update September 15

1:17pm There are 3 tropical systems currently being monitored in the Atlantic Ocean; Hurricane Igor, Hurricane Julia and Tropical Storm Karl. As of Wednesday morning Hurricane Igor remains very strong storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour, just shy of becoming a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Hurricane Igor is positioned approximately 600 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and is moving towards the west north west with a forward speed of 8 miles per hour. The forecast for Hurricane Igor takes it north of the Caribbean away from the Leeward Islands, forecast models predict this system will then take a northerly turn away from the east coast of the United States towards Bermuda. Even though Hurricane Igor will not directly impact the US its effects will be felt up and down the eastern seaboard. Igor will generate large swells and dangerous rip currents for the east coast beaches. The next system being monitored is Hurricane Julia, now a Category 4 Hurricane. As of Wednesday morning Hurricane Julia has maximum sustained winds of 135 miles per hour and is moving towards the north west with a forward speed of 14 miles per hour. Julia is located 490 miles to the west of Cape Verde moving away from the coast of Africa. At this time Hurricane Julia is not expected to be a threat to any land mass, however it will be a concern for maritime interest. The third system being monitored in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Karl. Karl has made it over land and is now producing torrential rains in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. As of Wednesday morning Tropical Storm Karl has maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour. It is forecast to re-emerge over warm waters as it crosses in to the Gulf of Mexico where it has the potential of gaining strength before making another landfall in Mexico. Lastly, I am monitoring a tropical wave that has emerged off the African coast just south of Cape Verde. This region appears to be going through a tropical cyclone genesis phase; here we might be looking at the spawn of yet another tropical system. The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season remains active. So far this season there have been 11 named storms in the Atlantic; 5 of which became Hurricanes, 4 of these have achieved Major Hurricane status of Category 3 or better. We are only half way through the Atlantic Hurricane Season and it is still peak time for tropical activity, at the rate were going the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season will start to mirror the 2005 Hurricane Season when we monitored a record 27 named systems developing in the Atlantic basin.

Weather synopsis: September 14

11:40am Today marks the 1 year anniversary of Elvis Valerio's Weather Blog. The new viewer count for the first year is 371 strong. The weather has put alot on the plate this fist year and long range forecasts predict there is alot more to come. The planet is going in to an ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) commonly referred to as the El Nino/ La Nina phenomenon. This ENSO cycle is forecast to dominate weather patterns globally for some time to come and incidentally this will influence our seasons. The last notable ENSO cycle planet Earth has experienced occurred back in 1997-1998 and caused wild weather phenomenons around the world from forest fires to blizzards, from torrential flooding to extreme droughts in places that don't typically experience these weather anomalies with high frequency and severe intensity. This ENSO cycle is expected to be moderate to strong; going by our climate records we can expect much of the same this time around. We've already began to see wild weather patterns all around the world. Since I've launched my weather blog I can recall the winter blitz that hammered the nation early this year in a winter dubbed "Snowmageddon." Also the deadly floods of Nashville this spring and Iowa this summer, as well as the active Hurricane Season so far are all accounts for the ENSO cycle that is underway, and these are just a handful of examples from this country alone. These weather anomalies are occurring on a global scale. Experts predict that this ENSO cycle will persist through June of 2012, I will provide additional information on the current state of the ENSO cycle as well as expert analysis on what the climate might hold for the coming weeks, months, seasons and years. Its been an amazing fist year; I am overwhelmed with gratitude for my blog viewers and hope to expand the site as time progresses. May there be more prosperous years to come for Elvis Valerio's Weather Blog. Viva evwx.blogspot.com !!!

Hurricane Season 2010: Update September 13

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues to be an active one. Within one week of Hurricane Earl's glancing blow to the east coast we have seen Tropical Storm Hermine spawn in the Gulf of Mexico and make a landfall near the Texas and Mexico boarder producing flooding and in-land Tropical Storm conditions. Currently we have a few newly developed systems in the Atlantic, Hurricane Igor and Tropical Storm Julia. As of the 11:00am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Igor has maximum sustained wind speeds of 150 miles per hour making it a strong Category 4 Hurricane. Igor is moving towards the west with a forward speed of 10 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure was recorded at 933 millibars and dropping, this is a good indicator that this storm is gaining strength. Computer models predict this storm will continue to intensify before it encounters some wind shear as it continues towards the west. The forecast for Hurricane Igor steers this storm system away from the Caribbean. However, a tropical wave is brewing in the eastern Caribbean Sea with a potential of developing further. It has been an active Hurricane season thus far as we have another system in the Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia. As of the 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Julia has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and is moving towards the west north west at a forward speed of 13 miles per hour. Tropical Storm Julia is forecast to strengthen in to a Category 1 Hurricane by tomorrow but should stay well away from any land mass.

Hurricane Season 2010: Hurricane Earl Upadate September 2

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is shaping up to be extremely active as of late. Parades of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes have been forming from tropical waves off the African coast with high frequency. Climatologically speaking this is the average peak time of the year for Tropical Storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean. So far this season we’ve had 9 tropical systems forming in the Atlantic of which 7 of these have achieved Tropical Storm status. Of these 7 Tropical Storms we’ve had 3 Hurricanes, 2 of which have achieved Major Hurricane status of Category 3 or better. This Hurricane Season is not showing any signs of slowing down any time soon; currently there are 3 tropical systems that we are monitoring in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona, and Tropical Storm Gaston. Our most immediate concern right now is Hurricane Earl. As of the 8:00am advisory from the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Earl is positioned approximately 850 miles south of New York City, 900 miles south of Montauk Point in Long Island just east of the Florida Georgia state boarder. Maximum sustained winds have been recorded at 145 miles per hour making this a very powerful storm at Category 4 status. Earl is moving towards the north north west with a forward speed of 18 miles per hour taking an express route towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for the North Carolina coast; Hurricane Watches have been issued for the Delmarva Peninsula and for Cape Cod in Massachusetts. In addition to the Hurricane advisories, the National Weather Service has also issued Tropical Storm Warnings from the North Carolina and Virginia state boarder north to Long Island as well as Tropical Storm Watches from Plymouth, Massachusetts north to the U.S. Canada boarder. These advisories have been issued in anticipation of Earl. Because this is such a large storm, even if the center of circulation stays well off shore we will still experience an impact from Hurricane Earl. Large swells over 20 feet and extremely dangerous rip currents are expected along the Long Island shore, along with the large swells a 6-8 foot storm surge is likely for Long Island with Earl’s approach on Friday. Hurricane Earl is approximately 400 miles in diameter; even a close pass by Earl will produce Tropical Storm force winds of 39 miles per hour or better for the Northeastern seaboard including New York City and Long Island. At this time the highest probability for Hurricane force winds of 74 miles per hour or better exists for North Carolina, eastern Long Island and Cape Cod. Keep in mind that any slight deviation in the forecast track of this storm can yield a land falling major Hurricane anywhere between North Carolina and Cape Cod in a worst case scenario situation. Because there is a potential for a historic catastrophic event residents along the Northeast are encouraged to have a plan of action just in case evacuation orders are implemented by local governments. This is the situation, there is an unusually strong cold front moving through the Midwest towards the east coast. This cold front will give us much needed relief from this week’s heat wave. The expectation is that this frontal system will provide enough of an influence to steer Hurricane Earl away from land before making a direct hit. Here in lies the problem, it is still unclear how this cold front will interact with Earl. If the cold front moves slower than anticipated it will allow Hurricane Earl to come closer to the coast. The exact timing of this cold front is crucial and virtually impossible to predict. My advice is to hope for the best but be prepare for the worst.

Weather Synopsis: Hurricane Earl Up Date August 31

3:13pm Hazy, hot and humid conditions prevail all over the Northeastern United States. Temperatures are soaring well in to the 90's up and down the east coast from Bangor, Maine to Baltimore, Maryland. The high heat is attributed to a strong High Pressure System at the upper levels of the atmosphere stationed right over the eastern third of the nation. The heat wave will continue through Thursday before a rather strong cold front moves in from the west and drives this dome of High Pressure out to sea. The cold front is expected to usher in much cooler and more pleasant temperatures in to the Northeast in time for Labor Day weekend. In addition, this frontal boundary will be pivotal in determining the exact track of Hurricane Earl. As of 2:00pm eastern time the National Hurricane Center has tracked Earl approximately 120 nautical miles to the north of the Dominican Republic moving towards the west north west with a forward speed of 13 miles per hour. Maximum sustained wind have been recorded at 135 miles per hour making Hurricane Earl a powerful Category 4 storm. The current forecast brings the center of the storm off shore right along the east coast. NCEP forecast models suggest that Hurricane Earl will pick up froward momentum and zip northward into the Canadian province of Nova Scottia. Between now and then residents along the eastern seaboard need to keep a watchful eye on the unfolding situation; there is a chance that Hurricane Earl will make land fall over the east coast late this week Thursday through Friday. A strong cold front is expected to plow through the region. The strong jet stream behind this cold front is forecast to steer Hurricane Earl to the north and then eventually to the north east away from land sparing the east coast from the worst of Hurricane Earl; however, if this cold front moves slower than anticipated the High Pressure system that is currently producing the heat wave over the Northeast will steer Hurricane Earl closer to the coast and potentially bring it right on shore in a worst case scenario situation. If the worst case scenario transpires we could be dealing with a historic life changing event affecting millions of people along the densely populated Northeast. Conversely, if the upper level winds steer Earl away from the coast the Northeast will be spared from the brunt of the storm, regardless of what transpires we will still have to deal with high swells potentially 20 feet or better, significant beach erosion and coastal flooding through out the Labor Day weekend. At this moment Hurricane Earl is not expected to make a land fall in the United States; however, the exact track of this storm is still uncertain. The weather is very dynamic and a forecast can change with out notice, it would not be a bad idea to start preparing now for a worst case scenario. Have and emergency plan for evacuating.

Hurricane Season 2010: Hurricane Earl Update August 30

3:00pm Hurricane Earl has been pounding the eastern Caribbean with hurricane force winds and torrential rains. As of 3:00pm the National Hurricane Center tracked the center of Hurricane Earl just north of the British Virgin Islands. The storm is moving towards the west north west with a forward speed of 15 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds have been recorded at 125 miles per hour making this a major Hurricane at Category 3. Minimum central pressure at the core of the storm has been recorded at 955 millibars and dropping, this persistent drop in central pressure indicates that Earl is strengthening. The current forecast suggests Hurricane Earl will continue to intensify through Wednesday into a powerful Category 4 storm. The exact track of Hurricane Earl is still uncertain; at this time NCEP forecast models are predicting that the Hurricane will track away from the coast. However the system is still days away from the eastern seaboard and a slight variation in the track could potentially bring a major Hurricane on shore this by the end of this week from the outer banks of North Carolina north to Cape Cod including Long Island, the Jersey Shore and the Delmarva Peninsula. Even if Hurricane Earl stays well away from the coast, it will still be close enough to produce significant beach erosion, very high swells and dangerous rip currents.

Hurricane Season 2010: Update August 29

So far this years Hurricane Season has produced an above average number of systems in the Atlantic. Things are have just began to fire up as we approach the peak of the Hurricane Season. So far there have been 7 Tropical Depressions in the Atlantic of which 5 have gain tropical storm status or better. A tropical storm is considered to be a low pressure system with a closed circulation down at the surface over warm tropical waters with wind speeds of 39 miles per hour or greater. Once wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour the storm is classified as a Category 1 Hurricane. So far this year there have been 3 Hurricanes, The first was Hurricane Alex which formed early in the season and made landfall in northern Mexico near the Texas boarder with maximum sustained winds of 100 miles per hour as a strong Category 2 Hurricane. Hurricane Danielle formed on August 21st from a tropical wave off the African coast and quickly became the first major Hurricane of the Atlantic Hurricane Season as a Category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 135 miles per hour; Danielle has produced some swells and rip currents for the east coast of the United States, the Hurricane is now well east of the island of Bermuda and the forecast calls for this system to continue its track away from the United Stated. The third Hurricane of the season is Hurricane Earl. Like Hurricane Danielle, Earl formed as a tropical wave off the African coast and is now churning the waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The current forecast is driving this strengthening storm towards the eastern Caribbean islands. Tropical Storm and Hurricane advisories have been implemented for the northern leeward islands including the US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. As of 5:00pm Hurricane Earl has sustained winds of 85 miles per hour and is moving to the west north west at 14 miles per hour. These locations are in the direct path of Hurricane Earl and will likely experience Hurricane conditions tonight and tomorrow. The Hurricane is centered just to the east of the lesser Antilles and will impact the region with Hurricane force winds, torrential rain and high storm surge. Furthermore, Hurricane Earl is forecast to pass dangerously close to the east coast of the United States this up coming weekend during the Labor Day holiday. It is still too early to pin point the exact path of the Hurricane. A frontal boundary is forecast to sweep through the eastern US, the forecast if for Hurricane Earl to be carried by this frontal boundary and make a turn to the north then eventually northeast tracking away from the eastern sea board. Nevertheless, if the storm veers to the west of the forecast track we would be talking about a potential for Hurricane conditions from the Carolina coast up to Cape Cod including Long Island, the Jersey Shore and the Delmarva Peninsula. If the storm stays away from the east coast major impacts will be significant beach erosion, large swells and dangerous rip currents. At this point the forecast is uncertain however we are only a few days away from Hurricane Earl's approach to the east coast.

Hurricane Season 2010 Update: July 1

The first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season made landfall in northern Mexico approximately 100 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. Hurricane Alex made landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane with the strongest winds near its center of circulation measured at 100 MPH. Its minimum central pressure was measured at 947 Millibars making Hurricane Alex the strongest Hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Dolly in 1994. Hurricane Alex formed from a tropical wave that made its way across the Atlantic Ocean. When it reached the Caribbean Sea it brought torrential downpours to Puerto Rico, The Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba. The tropical wave slowly churned the waters of the Caribbean Sea until it developed a closed circulation surface Low Pressure. It was the dubbed Tropical Depression 1 and it began to slowly move west towards Mexico and Belize. The system intensified in to a Tropical Storm and it made landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula. The Tropical Storm brought flooding rains to Honduras, Belize and Mexico' Yucatan. Over land, the system weakened to a Tropical Depression however, Alex moved into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico an quickly restrengthened to Tropical Storm status then Hurricane status making it the first Hurricane to form in the Atlantic since 1994. Hurricane Alex produced storm surge, torrential rains, damaging winds and spawned Tornadoes over south Texas. Now over land once again, Alex will continue to weaken and eventually dissipate however the remains of this system will continue producing heavy rain over south Texas then eventually over the Midwest.

Weather synopsis: June 8

4:20pm it has been a rather cool start to the work week for the most part across the Northeast. A storm system has pulled out of the region and in its wake a cool and dry air mass has moved in. High temperatures have been generally in the upper 50's to lower 70's with lows down in to the upper 40's in upstate New York and upper 50's along the coast. A new storm system will move infiltrate the region Wednesday; expect increasing clouds tonight in western New York with rain showers for tomorrow. The heaviest rain should remain south of Buffalo in to the Ohio River Valley; this storm system will progress east towards the coast and produce a steady rain fall for Pennsylvania then eventually the Hudson River Valley and southern New England. The rain will likely cease by early Thursday morning in the New York City metropolitan area. In the wake of this next system, temperatures should rebound nicely by Friday and down right hot by the weekend. A slight chance of showers and storms in the forecast in to the weekend with the greatest risk of storms likely on Sunday.

Weather synopsis: June 6

4:09pm a vigorous low pressure system is charging through the region. This storm system is dragging an sharp cold front. Ahead of the front temperatures are in the 90°F range; behind the front temperatures are in the 50°F range. This sharp difference in temperature is indicative of a very unstable atmosphere over the region. This instability has produced impressive amounts of rain over western New York yesterday with strong storms that have spawned a deadly Tornado outbreak over the Ohio River Valley and portions of the Midwest. Now this same system is plowing east towards the coast; Tornado watches have been posted from down east Maine to Washington D.C. Wind gusts of up to 80MPH are likely as a squall line of storms race eastward. Along with the damaging wind potential these storms could also produce golf ball sized hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Doppler radar indicate that these storms have been loosing strength, however portions of southern New England could still receive some severe thunder storms. Once this storm system pulls away expect a stretch of fair weather through the work week. Monday should be dry with cooler temperatures ranging between 65°F and 75°F. Temperatures will moderate this week but should remain around average with ample sunshine.

Weather synopsis: May 25

5:41pm although technically not a heatwave, it will certainly feel that way across the entire region these next few days. A High Pressure system will usher in a hot and humid air mass to influence the eastern two thirds of the Nation. The Northeast will experience temperatures some 15° to 25° above the average for this time of year. Temperatures will range between 85°F and 95°F from Buffalo, NY to Bangor, Maine and down the coast from Boston to New York and Washington D.C. Long range forecast models indicate this pattern wont last long, by this Friday temperatures should return to the 70s which is more typical and more bearable for late May. The high heat will produce enough instability in the Atmosphere that will likely trigger some strong to severe thunder storms Wednesday evening. Highs on Wednesday will reach 90°F or better for most of the region. Word of advise, wear plenty of Sunscreen to protect your skin from harmful Ultraviolet radiation from the Sun. Every time you get sunburned you increase your chances of skin cancer by a significant factor. Also, keep your self hydrated; drink plenty of water and avoid excessive alcoholic beverages.

Weather synopsis: May 4

10:25am wide spread showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm today. Highs in to the upper 60s and low 70s for the Northeast. Warming up tomorrow warming up to the upper 70s and low 80s for the entire region with plenty of sunshine.