THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE TRI-STATE AREA BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE CURRENT PATH OF THE LOW WOULD BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSSTHE NYC METRO AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. 2 TO 4 INCHES TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
*Heavy precipitation and strong winds are on tap for the Northeast tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be blowing 30-40 miles per hour with gust up to 60 miles per hour.
*Significant snow accumulations expected over Northern New England and Western New York State including Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse where well over 8 inches to as much as 16 inches of snow are expected. Heaviest Precipitation will occur tonight and last through early afternoon on Thursday.
*Snow/Sleet mixture initially for New York City Metropolitan area with accumulations up to 1 inch, then changing to a heavy, soaking rain this evening into the over night as a secondary area of low pressure develops along the coast pulling in warmer air from the Ocean.
*Coastal flooding expected tonight from mid-Atlantic to the New England coasts.
The following article is attributed to AccuWeather.com, a great
source for weather news, and forecast.
Following the criticism of the National Hurricane Center's handling
of Hurricane Sandy and the non-issuance of hurricane warnings north of
North Carolina, it has been decided that the NHC will now have more
flexibility in their policy regarding the issuance of advisories.
Beginning in 2013, the NHC will have the flexibility to issue
multiple advisories on post-tropical cyclones for landfalling systems or
close bypassers.
According to the NHC, this required a revision of the Hurricane Warning definition, which will now be as follows:
An announcement that sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are
expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a
tropical, sub-tropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane
preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm
force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated
onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect
when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water
and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.
"The main issue is: we want people to get ready for hurricane
conditions, and that's why we are changing the definition of hurricane
warning to be a little more inclusive of other things than just a
hurricane," Chris Landsea, Science and Operations Officer at the
National Hurricane Center, told AccuWeather.com.
Additionally, the NHC eventually plans to begin differentiating between wind hazards and storm surge hazards.
"Sandy was not ideal, and the way we handled it was not right. But we're fixing it," Landsea told AccuWeather.com.
"We realize this was not satisfactory and we want to make it better for next year."
Barry Myers, AccuWeather CEO, is supportive of the decision.
"We are pleased to see NOAA's new policy. It will accomplish for the
future, what AccuWeather advocated be done prior to the landfall of
Hurricane Sandy," Barry Myers, AccuWeather CEO, said today.
Myers had granted an interview to AccuWeather.com about eight hours
before Sandy's landfall and urged the government to issue hurricane
warnings for the affected New Jersey and New York areas. He called
Sandy a "hurricane embedded in a winter storm" that necessitated
hurricane warnings.
(Current US Surface Weather Map Indicates a Cold Front Advancing East Across The Region)
Unseasonably warm conditions will briefly come to an end tonight and tomorrow as a cold front advances towards the east ushering cooler and more seasonal temperatures for the Northeast. Expect showers of rain out ahead of the front across the region before temperatures fall back to what we would expect for early December. Temperatures will warm back up by Friday , though not as mild this warm up should last through the weekend and staying here through the better part of next week. Along with the mild conditions, we can expect inclement weather to affect the parts of the region, mainly away front the Atlantic coast as a stationary front sets up along the lower Great lakes increasing the chance of rain on Friday and Saturday across western New York State. Looking ahead, the long range weather forecast still supports the idea of an increased cold and snowy weather pattern setting up over the Northeast. One of the parameters which supports this forecast is the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO). We are currently observing a positive phase of this oscillation, which allows storm systems to move out quickly and doesn't allow the cooler temperatures to stick around much. However, with time, it looks as if we will be entering a negative phase of the NAO later in December.
Graph from National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
(Click to Expand Image)
Typically, when the NAO goes into a negative phase, high pressure sets up over the oceans in the northern latitudes. Essentially, this acts as an atmospheric block, allowing frequent shots of cold arctic air to flow south into the central and eastern US, and locks it in place lasting as long as the NAO stays in a negative phase. This also allows for big storms to form and move up the eastern seaboard. The current forecast calls for a more negative NAO to set up by mid December, in the mean time we can expect temperatures over the Northeast to continue to oscillate between average and above average with no big storms on the horizon for the eastern seaboard.
The Graphic Below Explains TheNEGATIVE PHASE of The North Atlantic Oscillation
Graphic from National Geographic Magazine, March 2000
(Click to Expand Image)
The Graphic Below Explains The POSITIVE PHASE of The North Atlantic Oscillation
Graphic from National Geographic Magazine, March 2000
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The Weather Channel, The Weather Underground, AccuWeather, WKBW Meteorologist Mr. Aaron Mentkowski, Buffalo State Meteorology Professor Dr. Stephen Vermette.
