Big Time Lake Effect Snow To Ring In 2012

The National Weather Service in Cheektowaga, NY has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for western New York State downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario beginig Sunday evening January 1st. This is in anticipation of a sharp cold front that is swinging through the region. Ahead of the front temperatures will soar into the upper 40's while behind the front temperatures will be in the teens and twenties. This artic blast will be accompanied by Gale force winds in excess of 40 miles per hour with gusts as high as 65 miles per hour. The cold wind over the unfrozen, relatively warm lake waters is expected to produce the first significant Lake Effect Snow event of this winter season. Initially rain will fall, quickly changing to snow after the passage of the cold front late Sunday afternoon. Heavy snow in combination with strong winds will produce blizzard conditions with significant blowing and drifting snow and near zero visibilities. Snowfall rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected with in the lake snow bands. In Buffalo, the heaviest snow should fall Sunday evening through early Monday morning with a secondary round of snow expected on Wednesday. Snow accumulations could range between 4 inches to 1 foot by the time the snow subsides on Wenesday evening from Niagara Falls to the Buffalo south towns. Areas south of Buffalo as well as downwind of Lake Ontatario could recieve between 1 and 3 feet of snow by Wenesday evening. In addition to the snow and wind, the strong gales are expected to produce a surge of water along the leeward lake shores leading to coastal flooding.

Prospects For Snow Tuesday Night

The Northeastern US has been under a snow drought this season. Temperatures have been running well above normal through the fall and so far through the winter as well. This time last year we were dealing with much colder temperatures and the monster blizzard along the coast that paralyzed the megalopolis from D.C. to Philly, NYC and Boston. This year however, we haven't had much to talk about in the way of snow and cold. However, it does appear as if that is slowly about to change as several opportunities for snow are on the horizon for the Northeast over the next two weeks. I'm monitoring a storm system that will enter the picture on Tuesday producing rain for the Northeast along the coast; temperatures should be cold enough away from the coast across interior sections of the Northeast that rain can change to snow on Tuesday night. While a steady rain will fall east of Interstate 81 from eastern Pennsylvania to the Atlantic coast, snow can be expected across western Pennsylvania and upstate New York into northern New England. 1-3 inches of snow will be common across western New York and Pennsylvania with higher amounts between 6-12 inches across the higher terrain of northern New York State and Vermont by Wednesday morning as the storm system moves away from the region leaving behind a much colder air mass in its wake.

Snowfall Totals 12/09/11

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************


NEW YORK

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

--DUNKIRK: 2.0 inches 1010 PM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ERIE COUNTY...

--NW AMHERST: 3.0 inches 1100 AM 12/09 WIVB

--E AMHERST: 2.7 inches 1100 AM 12/09 NWS EMPLOYEE

--NNE TONAWANDA: 2.5 inches 1207 PM 12/09 COCORAHS

--S AKRON: 2.4 inches 1043 PM 12/09 COCORAHS

--S DERBY: 2.0 inches 720 PM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

--NORTH TONAWANDA: 4.3 inches 1201 AM 12/10 CO-OP OBSERVER

--NNW NORTH TONAWAND: 3.9 inches 1044 PM 12/09 COCORAHS

--ENE LOCKPORT: 3.9 inches 1030 AM 12/09 COCORAHS

--SSW SANBORN: 3.5 inches 1125 AM 12/09 PUBLIC

--NIAGARA FALLS INTL A: 3.3 inches 100 PM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER

--SSE SOUTH LOCKPORT: 3.0 inches 700 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

--SANBORN 3.0 inches 420 PM 12/09 PUBLIC

--NE LOCKPORT: 2.5 inches 625 AM 12/09 COCORAHS

--NORTH HARTLAND: 2.0 inches 815 AM 12/09 WIVB

A Meteorological Bust

The Lake Effect snow that was anticipated from Thursday through Friday was a meteorological bust to say the least. Snow accumulations ranged between 1.2 inches at the airport to 3.9 inches in Niagara Falls, a far cry from the 9.0+ inches that were forecast initially. The National Weather Service in Cheektowaga had to down grade its Lake Effect Snow Warning to an Advisory on Friday morning after less favorable Lake Effect conditions became apparent. The Lake Effect snow did not get cranking until around 6:00AM Friday morning; nearly eight hours later than anticipated, and it was confined to Niagara county and the Buffalo north towns for the most part. Accumulations were limited mainly to grassy surfaces and automobiles. Nevertheless, this was the first wide spread snow event of the season for the snow deprived city of Buffalo. Lake Erie is still fairly warm, the latest observations measured a lake temperature of 45 degrees Fahrenheit, well above average for this time of the year. I have a hunch that we are not done with Lake Effect Snow just yet.