October Nor'easter Snowfall Totals

Connecticut

--Bristol: 17.0 inches

--East Farmington Heights: 13.0 inches

--Manchester: 9.0 inches

New Hampshire

--Hillsboro: 21.5 inches

--Peterborough: 24.0 inches

--Jaffrey: 31.4 inches

Maine

--Bridgton: 17.5 inches

--Gray: 12.9 inches

--Otisfield: 14.0 inches

Massachusetts

--Plainfield: 30.8 inches

--Ashfield: 25.5 inches

--Worthington: 24.0 inches

--Goshen: 25.0 inches

New York

--Harriman: 16.0 inches

--Armonk: 12.5 inches

--Yankee Lake: 16.5 inches

--White Plains: 7.5 inches

--Yonkers: 7.0 inches

--Bronx: 6.0 inches

--Massapequa: 3.28 inches

--Central Park: 2.9 inches

--Ronkonkoma: 1.90 inches

Pennsylvania

--Laurel Summit: 12.2 inches

--Freeland: 13.0 inches

--Mount Cobb: 12.7 inches

--Hazeleton: 16.0 inches

New Jersey

--West Milford: 19.0 inches

--North Caldwell: 12.0 inches

--Ringwood: 10.5 inches

Northeast Snowtober?

Rumors of snow are running rampant over the Northeastern US. Its hard to believe that accumulating snow can fall in the month of October in the Northeast but that is what is in the forecast. A dynamic weather pattern that is more typical for December is taking precedence beginning with the passage of a cold front that is ushering in a much colder air mass. This is changing rain to snow across interior sections of the Northeast on Thursday October 27th. Snow accumulations on the order of around 3 inches can be expected over northern Pennsylvania, central New York State and into central New England with greater amounts over the higher elevations. Rain is expected elsewhere in the Northeast during this time. This first system moves out by Friday October 28th leaving behind a dense cold air mass over the region. This will set the stage for a secondary storm scenario on Saturday that could produce a heavy wet accumulating snow over the megalopolis along the I-95 corridor of the Northeast.

A storm system responsible for dumping over 6 inches of wet snow in Denver will race eastward along the polar Jet stream. This storm is forecast to rapidly intensify off the Midatlantic coast on Saturday. With cold air already in place this could set the stage for an early snow storm on Saturday night from Washington DC to Boston. Details of the exact track of this potential storm are rather uncertain at this point, but I think there will be rain to start. Then as this system strengthens enough cold air will be dragged in to change the precipitation to a heavy wet snow all the way down to the coast. With the convection anticipated with this storm system, thunder and lightning will also accompany the precipitation. The potential for up to 6 inches of snow for New York City and western Long Island is not out of the question. If this transpires, expect widespread power outages as most trees are still wearing their leaves, when you add this heavy wet snow and 40 miles per hour wind gusts these trees will come down knocking out power for many residents.

Hurricane Rina Update 10/25/11

Hurricane Rina, the 17th named system and the 5th hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season is churning over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea. Rina is on the precipice of category 2-3 intensity on the Saffir-simpson hurricane scale with a minimum central pressure of 970 millibars and maximum sustained wind speeds of 110 miles per hour as of the 7pm advisory on October 25th from the National Hurricane Center. The forecast is for a strengthening system as it crawls north westward towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Rina is expected to have a direct impact on the Yucatan on Thursday October 27th. There after, Rina is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico where it will pose a threat to central and southern Florida. There are uncertainties on the track of Rina as it could plow into south Florida or loop south towards Cuba. Either way, Hurricane Rina is expected to move into an unfavorable region in the Gulf of Mexico where it will encounter strong wind shear aloft, this will prevent Rina form maintaining strength and even weaken the system all together from a hurricane down to a tropical storm.

The State of The Hurricane Season

The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season has unfolded to be an active one for tropical storm formation. To date, a total 16 named storms have been tallied over the Atlantic Ocean, 5 of these reached Hurricane strength. The following is a list of Hurricanes of the 2011 season in chronological order:

1- Hurricane Irene (08/20-08/29) Maximum sustained wind speeds of 120 miles per hour and a minimum central pressures of 942 millibars, a category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. Hurricane Irene is the landmark storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season due to its direct impact to the eastern United States. Hurricane Irene affected the Greater Antilles as a slow moving Tropical Storm producing torrential rains over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The storm gained strength and made a direct landfall over the Bahamas as a category 2-3 Hurricane. Hurricane Irene made its first landfall in the U.s. over the coast of North Carolina as a category 2 storm. The storm made a second and third landfall over the Jersey shore and New York harbor as a category 1 storm. The storm claimed over 40 lives, damages are estimated to range in the billions.

2- Hurricane Katia (08/29-09/10) Maximum sustained wind speeds of 135 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 946 millibars, a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. Hurricane Katia was largely a marine interest as this storm system remained well away from any land. The storm did produce large swells up and down the east coast of the U.S. as it moved over the open waters of the North Atlantic.

3- Hurricane Maria (09/06-09/16) Maximum sustained wind speeds of 80 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 979 millibars, a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. The storm impacted the Lesser Antilles with tropical rained and storm force winds. The storm gained strength as it moved in to a more favorable region in the Atlantic side swiping Bermuda with rain and gusty winds. Eventually as the storm lost its tropical characteristics it impacted Nova Scottia as an extra tropical storm.

4- Hurricane Ophelia (09/21-10/03) Maximum sustained wind speeds of 140 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 940 millibars, a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. Hurricane Ophelia in the strongest storm to spawn from the 2011 Hurricane season. Ophelia impacted the Lesser Antilles as a storm before curving sharply towards the north. The storm intensified rapidly to a category 4 barely missing Bermuda to the east. Hurricane Ophelia became extra tropical over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic and made landfall over Nova Scottia.

5- Hurricane Philippe (09/24-10/08) Maximum sustained wind speeds of 90 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 976 millibars. This storm was largely influenced by upper level winds as it meandered about over the open waters of the Atlantic. The storm was ultimately sheered apart by front and eventually dissipated.

Eventhough we have passed the peak of the Hurricane season, we can still expect development in the tropics well through October and November. Forecast models indicate trpocal storm development is still likely as we progress through late October.