Weather synopsys: Sunday January 30

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5:35pm a major winter storm is brewing promising heavy snow and ice across much of the country including the Northeast from Monday night through Wednesday. This storm system will create thunder snow along with near blizzard conditions in Buffalo on Wednesday morning during the height of this storm with heavy rain and or ice south of the NY/PA boarder including coastal sections of the Northeast and Midatlantic. Initially, snow will break out late on Monday night and will continue through Tuesday - this first round of precipitation will produce a general 3"-6" snow accumulations through the Northeast from Buffalo to Long Island. Then precipitation will begin to tapper off to light snow on Tuesday evening; snow will begin to mix with freezing rain and sleet early morning on Wednesday south of the NY/PA boarder and along the coast. The storm's peak impact on the region will be felt during the morning hours on Wednesday lasting through early afternoon before dissipating late in the evening. Total snow accumulations in Buffalo, NY will likely exceed 15 inches and locally over 20 inches due to the high snowfall rates with this storm - when you factor in wind gust in excess of 30 miles per hour we're looking at a good chance of a bonnafied blizzard in Buffalo during the morning rush. The forecast gets more complicated as you head towards the coast as warm air south of the storm track will mean a variety of precipitation - we could be dealing with a period of significant icing in New York City before the precipitation changes over to rain late Wednesday morning. The exact track this storm will take as it heads east is not set in stone, a deviation to the south will mean less snow in Buffalo and colder temperatures along the coast yielding heavier snow in New York City. Regardless, this storm will have a major impact over the region with massive disruptions and delays possible.

Weather synopsis: Saturday January 29

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3:29pm good news for all of us snow lovers, the forecast calls for yet another big storm as we head in the the middle of the week. A cold arctic air mass continues its grip over much of the northern-tier of the nation, this will open up a southern storm track. A storm system will move east from the Rocky Mountains producing a wide spread heavy snowfall across the country all the way to the Atlantic. Heavy snow is likely over the Northeast on Wednesday as the storm system begins to affect the region, significant snow accumulations are expected in Chicago, Illinois then east to Buffalo, NY. Heavy precipitation will also make its way into the megalopolis on Wednesday however, the storm system may pull in enough warm air off the Atlantic Ocean to change the heavy snow to an icy mix and rain before changing back to snow towards the end of the storm, it is still too early to determine the exact track of this system, which will determine the temperature variations and precipitation type. Nevertheless, another major winter storm is likely to affect the region beginning from late Wednesday morning with the heaviest precipitation through out the afternoon hours - significant snow accumulations of 6 inches or greater will be common through out a large area of the country on Groundhogs Day. In the words of former New York Yankee catcher and manager Yogi Berra "It's deja vu all over again".

Weather synopsis: Thursday January 27

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6:02pm the northeastern seaboard recovers from yet another major snow storm. This has been the 7th storm system to affect the region since Christmas just over one month ago. January 2011 now officially holds the new record for the snowiest month of all time at Central Park in New York City at just over 36". The snow storm delivered a one two punch on Wednesday, the first round of precipitation came in almost unexpectedly; the surface low pressure feature of the storm produced a mass of heavy precipitation that traversed from south west to the north east ranging between 3-6 inches of snow along the coast in a short period of time, this created a messy morning commute for the big cities from Washington to New York. As the precipitation intensity began to subside around the mid-afternoon the storms counter clockwise circulation drew in warmer air off the Atlantic mixing snow with sleet and rain, then all rain for a brief period. Then towards the evening, the upper level low pressure feature of this storm reintroduced cold air aloft - this, in combination with the intensity of the precipitation nearly 2-4" of snow per hour! during the height of the storm late Wednesday and early Thursday produced over 1 foot of additional snow accumulation in a short period. Snowfall totals for the duration of the storm ranged between 1 foot over central Long Island to 19 inches in New York City. Along with the intense precipitation, the convective activity associated with this storm also produced numerous lightning and thunder reports as well as strong and gusty winds in excess of 40 miles per hour in most cases. The storm has now moved into the Canadian maritime as is no longer a concern for the region, however, there is still more snow on the horizon. A series of clipper systems will begin to affect the region on Friday then again on Saturday. These clipper systems will move quickly and produce about 2 inches of additional snow on Friday then another 2 inches on Saturday. These storm systems will also enhance Lake Effect Snow producing 4-8 inches of snow accumulation along the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be on the down swing,getting progressively colder over the weekend and early next week as more arctic air spews into the Northeast. The long range projections indicate a continuation of this cold and snowy weather pattern for the next few weeks with another possible big snow storm around groundhogs day.

Weather synopsis: Wednesday January 26

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1:00pm this snow storm has arrived sooner than anticipated creating a messy morning commute over much of the northeastern seaboard. The intensity of the precipitation resulted in snow accumulations around and about 3 to 5 inches in a short period of time during the late morning rush hour; this created big problems in the big cities from Washington and Baltimore to Philadelphia then north to New York City. Doppler Radar idicates there could be a brief break from the heavy precipitation as the storm system tries to pull in warmer air on towards the coast from the Jersey shore to Long Island. During this time, snow will mix with sleet and perhaps change to rain. Then this evening, heavy precipitation will start again with another 5 to 8 inches of additional accumulation and near blizzard conditions likely especially over Long Island. Winds will gust between 30 and 40 miles per hour during the height of this storm along the coast late Wednesday and early Thursday combined with 1 to 3 inch per hour snowfall rates will result in poor visibilities down to a 1/4 mile or less. The storm should be over and done by 6:00am with improving conditions through Thursday. Behind this storm system temperatures will gradually trend towards colder through the weekend. The next storm system that will affect the region is not too far behind and will approach the Northeast this weekend. This next storm will be a weaker system dipping down from central Canada affecting the entire Northeast with minor snow accumulations making the roads slick once again, behind this next system an even colder air mass will begin to over take the region once again early next week.

Weather synopsis: Monday January 24

10:02pm boy was it a cold one this morning. Low temperatures dropped close to -10 degrees below zero in Buffalo. This is an extensively cold air mass covering the entire Northeast region down to the north Atlantic coast; Low temperatures in the Bronx, NY dipped to 4 degrees on Sunday night and Monday morning with single digit temperatures extending east over Long Island. Our temperatures will moderate into the 30's, though still cold its certainly more manageable than this past weekend's brutal temperatures. Along with the cold we will have to contend with more wintry precipitation. First we have a weak upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes enhancing Lake Effect Snow, this will produce a light snow on Tuesday with little accumulations if any over the Northeast. The real big player in our weather will occur over the middle of the week as a strengthening low pressure system moves up the east coast. This system will be a difficult one to forecast. Initially, I though this would be a wind whipped snow event along the coast; however as this storm system tracks north east ward, it strengthens pulling in Atlantic moisture, enough so that is will moderate temperatures right along the coast. The result will be a sloppy mixture of rain, snow and sleet with strong gusty winds. Initially, a light snow will break out - quickly mixing with sleet on Wednesday Night. The sleet will mix with and perhaps change to rain through midnight which could be heavy at times melting some of the snow pack, after midnight cold air will start to work its way back down to the coast. This will change the rain back to snow. The timing of these temperature variations along with the forecast track of this coastal storm will determine the type of impact this storm will have on the region. I think that once the precipitation changes back to snow along the coast Wednesday night and early Thursday morning we could get up to 6 inches of snow accumulations by the time its all said and done. Behind this system more cold air looms, particularly by late next weekend when another blast of brutally cold air is likely.

Weather synopsis: Friday January 21

4:20pm a very cold, polar air mass is taking up residence over the Northeast this weekend bringing with it subzero temperatures to our region. This is the coldest air mass to hit the region since January of 2010. High temperatures in Buffalo will be around 5 degrees above zero this weekend with Lows dipping down to around -10°F. It will be cold all the way down to the north Atlantic coast; High temperatures in New York City will be in the teens with Lows on Sunday dropping down to around zero degrees, when you factor in the wind it will feel much colder with wind chill values below zero. The cold air will stick around for the weeks and perhaps months ahead, the weather pattern in place will allow for a continuation of streams of cold air to spill into the Northeast. What does the weather hold for the next few days you ask? Well you guessed it right, my forecast calls for more cold and snow to impact the region. The next weather maker will be a weak low pressure system that will sweep through the Northeast on Saturday, this will produce some minor Lake Effect Snows down wind from the Great Lakes with some snow flurries elsewhere in the Northeast. Then by the middle of the upcoming week we could be dealing with a major snow storm similar to the Christmas weekend blizzard from the Chesapeake Bay up the coast to coastal Canada. At the moment, the latest forecast models are in agreement that this potential Nor'Easter will take shape - however, the timing and the impacts of this storm system is still in question. As of right now, I think that the storm will hit the Northeast some time on Wednesday - this storm does have the potential to produce an impressive wind driven snowfall along the coast.

Weather synopsis: Thursday January 20

8:35pm a true arctic dose of uber (super) cold air is spilling in to the Northeast; the forecast calls for temperatures to plummet. Temperatures have been running at or below average for the winter so far and they are likely to get even colder in the days ahead. A cold air mass over the polar region will spew a blast of cold air aimed at the Northeast. Ahead of this mass of cold air, a storm system will zip across the region this evening into the day on Friday spreading a wide area of accumulating snow. The heaviest snow will be confined to locations down wind of the Great Lakes as well as the immediate coast from the Jersey shore to the Gulf of Maine - 6 inches or more of snow is likely. At its peak, snowfall rates will be around 1 to 3 inches per hour between 6 and 10 in the morning . I'm talking about white out conditions just in time for the morning rush in New York City. The snow should tapper off by Noon time in New York City, Lake Effect snow will continue through the evening around the Great Lakes. Behind this system we will see temperatures drop like a rock. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 10's and 20's. Temperatures will get even colder this weekend; High temperatures will be hard pressed to rise above zero degrees in Buffalo. Temperatures will drop to zero degrees in New York City overnight on Saturday and Sunday. When you factor in the wind temperatures will feel much colder. Dress in layers when venturing out this weekend making sure to cover exposed skin surfaces as frost bite can settle in pretty fast during prolonged exposure to extreme cold. Also, it might be a good idea to make sure you top off you gas tanks with a full tank.

Weather synopsis: Monday January 17

11:57pm a complex storm system is moving in to the region. The warm air associated with this system will try to over ride a layer of cold arctic air that has been in place since January 1st. The result is a sloppy mixture of frozen precipitation. Snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain through the early morning on Tuesday before becoming all rain by late morning. Snow could accumulate 1-3 inches before the messy mixture of rain and icy precipitation take over. The storm system will swiftly move out of the region by early evening on Tuesday. Right on the heels of this storm system I am monitoring yet another potential snow storm for the latter part of this work week on Friday; current forecast models agree that this next storm system could produce another significant snowfall for the Northeast followed by a deep arctic blast. Long range weather projections predict that the current weather pattern will be prolonged at least through mid February. We can expect a continuation of this cold and stormy pattern with several opportunities for snow storms. It might be a good idea to invest in a warm winter hat, a pair of gloves and boots.

Weather synopsis: Friday January 14

2:05pm despite sounding like a broken record, once more we are talking about the firm grip of a cold air mass that has been with us since the New Year. The forecast calls for the cold air to continue as a series of weak low pressure systems comming in from central Canada will progreesively reinforce the cold air already in place. One of these weak low pressure systems will be the next weather maker over the Northeast this weekend. A clipper type system will move in to the Northeast by way of the Great Lakes on Saturday, this will initiate some Lake Enhanced Snow with accumulations ranging between 2-4 inches in Buffalo. This weak system will also produce some light snow and flurries for the rest of the region through Sunday with little to no snow accumulations expected. Behind this system a reinforcing shot of arctic air will keep our temperatures where they have been if not slightly colder. Looking ahead into next week, I am monitoring the potential for a disruptive storm system that could affect the region on Tuesday and Wednesday with a mixed bag of precipitation. It is too early to indicate the exact details of this storm's impact on the region; more information will be available as the projected time frame approaches.

NYC Metro Updated Snowfall Forecast

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4:20pm a Nor'Easter will produce a decent amount of snow over the region. Snow accumulations between 6 inches to 1 foot is likely in and around the greater New York City metropolitan area. It looks as if this storm will be an over achiever in terms of snow accumulations specifically over central and eastern Long Island where accumulations could whind up in the 20 inches range with locally higher amounts. Blizzard conditions will also be likely over Long Island and on in to Connecticut and Rhode Island; winds will begin to howl as this storm system deepens producing a virtual blizzard over these areas.

Weather synopsis: Monday January 10

8:41pm a classic Nor'Easter is in the making with its eyes targeting the region once again. There are several atmospheric factors in play working to produce this storm which has yet to develop. Once the gears set in to motion, this system will likely have an impact over the entire Northeast. First, we have been under a cold spell since the beginning of the year; this will be the primary ingredient for a winter storm as this cold air mass will support frozen precipitation through out the duration of this event. There have been two storm systems traversing the nation, one over the northern Great Plains and the other over the Southeast. These two systems are producing snow and ice over a large area of the country as they progress eastward. The storm over the Southeast will transfer its energy off shore and redevelop in to a coastal storm off the Southeast coast. This coastal low will then shoot up the eastern seaboard and simultaneously, the storm system over the Great Plains will move across into the Northeast; the way in which these two storm system interact and eventually phase off the Northeastern seaboard will determine the formation of this Nor'Easter and it will dictate the impact that will be felt across the region. Here is my forecast: Snow will begin to fall Tuesday afternoon in Buffalo and later Tuesday evening in New York City/ Long Island. Light to moderate snow will fall through the night away from the coast. Snow will become steady and heavy overnight along the coast as our two storm systems phase and become one greater coastal low pressure system between 2:00am and 8:00am; it is within this time period is where I think the worst of the storm will affect New York City and Long Island. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be likely in the Tristate area. The snow intensity will begin to diminish after 8:00am with snow showers lingering through the noon hour before ending after noon. In terms of snow accumulations, the majority of Northeast will have a general snowfall between 3-6 inches including the city of Buffalo. Snow accumulations will tend to be greatest as you approach the coast. In the five boroughs and Long Island I'm calling for 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts. The greatest amounts of snow will be out over eastern Long Island where the majority of the moisture associated with this system will be confined, I expect snow totals over 1 foot in localized areas. White out conditions are also expected within the 1-2 inch per hour snow bands. Along with heavy snow, winds will be gusty as this storm system deepens off the coast of New England. Keep in mind that any deviation in the storms forecast track and intensity could mean a more significant storm for the New Jersey, New York and Connecticut corridor.

Weather synopsis: Saturday January 8

11:55am the snowy pattern continues today as a broad upper level low continues to pinwheel storm after storm through the Northeast. On Friday, a band of snow produced a general 1" to 4" snowfall in the five boroughs of NYC yesterday with as much as 6" of snow in northeastern New Jersey and up to 12" in parts of Connecticut. The snow was most persistent once it passed to the east of New York confining the heaviest accumulations to Long Island and Connecticut. Today, another round of snow will sweep through the area and will produce an additional 1" of snow in NYC with up to 5" of snow as you head east towards the eastern end of Long Island. Snow will also be an issue around Buffalo as the Lake Effect continues, an additional 1-3 inches of snow are possible by tonight. Looking ahead, there is still a chance of another more powerful storm system to affect the Northeastern seaboard. At this time, I don't think that this next storm will affect the New York City metro area. The more likely scenario is that once this potential storm system develops Tuesday evening is will track up the coast; it looks as if the majority of moisture associated with this low pressure system will remain off shore, sparing the Tristate from another blizzard. As with any potential coastal storm, we are still days away from this scenario. Any deviation in this storms track as it heads up the coast could change the forecast significantly.

Weather synopsis: Thursday January 6

5:00pm today marks the 15th anniversary of the notorious Blizzard of 1996, which bombarded the Northeast with record snow and strong winds from North Carolina to Massachusetts. So far this winter we have already had a heck of a snow storm erily comparable to the 1996 Blizzard back in December during the Christmas weekend. Flash forward to 2011; the weather is promising more arctic cold and snow to infiltrate the region as we enter a cold and stormy weather pattern. First, Lake Effect Snow is cranking up once more as a weak disturbance moves over the Great Lakes this evening. An additional 3 to 6 inches is likely in Buffalo beginning tonight and lingering through the next few days. The same low pressure system that will enhance Lake Effect Snow in northern and western New York State will eventually move off the coast of Long Island early Friday morning. This weak system will strengthen as it gathers energy from the Atlantic Ocean and will produce a wide spread area of accumulating snow. Like I mentioned in my previous posting, I don't think that this will be any where near as impressive as the Christmas weekend Nor'Easter. My forecast calls for a narrow band of snow that will develop along a trough as this system works its way off shore. Snow will break out in the tristate area during the morning hours on Friday and will persist through the evening hours before dissipating to flurries very early on Saturday. Generally between 4 inches to as much as 10 inches of snow is likely in and around the New York City metropolitan area, the greatest accumulations will be confined to areas where this snow band is most persistent. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour is possible at the peak of this storm. Beyond this weekend, the weather seems to remain active with the likelihood of yet another more powerful storm in the horizon during the middle potion of next week. I will be monitoring the situation and will continue to post updates on a regular basis.

Weather synopsis: Tuesday January 4

8:16pm cold conditions prevail over much of the country as an arctic flow makes its presences evident in the continental United States. Currently over the Northeast we are dealing with a weak low pressure system that has originated over central Canada. This system will be moving over the Great Lakes this evening and is responsible for enhancing some of the Lake Effect Snow we've been dealing with around the city of Buffalo were accumulations have ranged between 4-8 inches since January 1. The Lake Effect Snow should become more disorganized as we progress through Wednesday as this weak clipper system moves away from the region. Behind this system, another shot of arctic air will reinforce the cold air mass that is already in place. Later this week, another weak clipper system will move into the Northeast once again initiating some Lake Enhanced Snow showers on Thursday and Friday. This same low pressure system will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Friday; there will be a chance for this system to morph in to another coastal storm. This developing system could gather energy from the Atlantic Ocean and intensify. I have been monitoring this situations for a few days and it seems as if forecast models agree that there will be a potential snow storm to affect portions of the Northeast Friday and Saturday. As per the current computer model data, I think this potential storm system will produce accumulating snow from New York City northward along the coast. Right now I don't think that this will be a Blockbuster type snow storm in New York City like we saw during the Christmas weekend blizzard; if this storm materializes the heaviest snow should generally stay to the east of the big apple and confined to Long Island, Connecticut and southern New England. However, this storm is still days away and a slight deviation in the projected track and intensity will mean the difference between a snowless weekend and a mammoth snow storm of similar proportions to the Christmas weekend Nor'easter.

Weather synopsis: Saturday January 1

Happy New Year!
5:36pm the transition into the new year brought along mild temperatures over much of the region. Temperatures climbed to near 60 degrees in Buffalo earlier on January 1st which aided in the melting of much of the snow pack. This mild streak will be short lived as a sharp cold front works its way eastward. Ahead of this frontal boundary, temperatures will soar in to the 50s with intermittent rain showers. Tonight this cold front will begin to sweep the region, the cold air mass behind this front will drop temperatures quite rapidly by a factor of 30 degrees. Tonight's forecast low temperatures in Buffalo are expected to dip in to the lower to middle 20s, this will create hazardous conditions as a flash freeze will over take the region. Any puddles from the rain and melt water will turn in to a solid sheet of black ice. Untreated surfaces will pose a threat to pedestrians and motorist alike. Exercise caution when venturing out as icy conditions are likely. The chance for Lake Effect Snow flurries will become increasingly likely as this cold air mass flows over the relatively unfrozen lake Erie. This cold snap will be enduring as wave after wave of arctic air reinforces the air mass that will be settling in.