Weather synopsis for October 29, 2009

Its 50°F with overcast skies in Buffalo, NY just before the noon hour. Today a high temperature of 52°F is forecast ed. Another gray day in the Queen City with low-level cloud cover over much of the Northeast. Well game 1 of the World Series turned out to be a tad rainy with showers for the beginning of the game, lets all hope the Yankees come back tonight in game 2. The forecast for the Bronx tonight is looking good, at game time temperatures will be on the cool side into the lower 50s with partly cloudy skies. A warm day is in store for buffalo for Friday with highs reaching the middle 60s. Also expect increasing clouds through the day tomorrow with the approach of the next storm system. Friday night could be on the unsettled side with a chance for rain showers. The heaviest rain will arrive by Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will fall to a more seasonable range for this time of year after this weekend so we can kiss the 60s goodbye.

Weahter synonpsis and summary updated Octeber 28th

At 12:16pm the temperature in Buffalo, NY is 52°F with overcast skies and some light drizzle. It has been a fairly inactive 2 weeks of weather here in Buffalo. We did receive some snow showers on the 16th of October however a temperature moderation warmed us back to slightly above average temperatures we also experienced a storm system that brought strong winds and heavy rains to the region from the 22nd to the 24th. The last three days have produced spectacular weather, temperatures ranged between 58°F and 65°F with generally clear skies and calm winds. Today we are under the influence of a weak storm system that did produce some precipitation which has now moved on out. The forecast for game 1 of the World Series in New York looks good. The storm system that is producing rain in the Bronx will continue to move away and fair weather can be expected for the World Series. Expect unsettled weather this weekend with rain and gray skies. After this weekend its back to reality, temperatures will take a tumble to a more seasonable chill ranging in the 40s and 50s. Some NCEP forecast models are hinting toward a light snow event possible next week with the passage a clipper system from the Alberta province of Canada. It may be too early to tell but winter weather is in the forecast.

Weather synopsis for October 16, 2009

At 12:30pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 42°F with overcast skies. A rain/snow mix fell overnight in Buffalo which didn't amount to much. Locations across the Southern tier picked up some 4" and some higher elevated areas in PA. picked up close to 12". Tonight, lows will be in the low to mid 30s in Buffalo but colder away from the shores of Erie. The next round of coastal storms will be taking shape and producing more heavy snow for the mountains of the Northeast, great news for ski resorts. Heavy rain will continue for locations along the Northeast coast, and once more some of the moisture associated with this coastal low will reach us here in Western New York giving us a chance of some light rain that will mix with wet snow late. NCEP forecast models indicate a warm up for the Northeast in the coming week.

Weather synopsis for October 15, 2009

At 12:50pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 39°F with overcast skies. Today we'll have rain showers move in to the region as a coastal low winds-up off the Northeastern seaboard. Tonight we will see light rain showers mixing with wet snow from time to time, low temperatures will hover just above the freezing mark. Locations along the coast will be hit by a double round of coastal storms. These storm will bring heavy rain and wind to places like New York City and Boston and heavy snow for the interior. Some of the more elevated regions will see as much as one foot of snow. Locally, expect a chance of more rain/snow mix for Friday and Saturday and improving conditions for Sunday. Next week we are likely to warm up to more typical temperatures for this time of the year as highs will rebound to the 50s.

Weather synopsis for October 14, 2009

At 12:30pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 39°F with overcast skies. Today, we will reach a high temperature of 45°F with gray skies hanging around. Lows tonight will dip below freezing again and clouds will remain in the area. There is an area of low pressure over the South producing heavy rainfall across the gulf states. The moisture associated with this storm system extends north to the Ohio River valley. As this moisture progresses eastward, it should pass to our south but will produce gray skies through the weekend. Initially my forecast for the remainder of the week indicated fair and cool weather for Buffalo, now computer models are reconfiguring a coastal storm that now has the potential to produce unsettled conditions. A chance of precipitation is now likely from Thursday night onward to through this weekend. The bulk of the moisture from this developing coastal storm will remain east of Western New York, however we could have precipitation make its way into the region. Due to the recent cold temperatures the atmosphere is likely to be cold enough to support a mixture of wet snow and rain here into Friday evening. In the higher elevations of the Northeast, this coastal storm has the potential to produce heavy wet snow, with trees still foliated we can expect dangerous conditions with fallen trees and slushy roads. This Nor'easter will pack some strong gusty winds and heavy precipitation along the coast posing a threat to the scheduled game 1 of the American League Championship Series in the Bronx versus the Angels from Anaheim.

Global Cooling?

Prelude

As many might already be aware, the warmest average global temperature on record was observed in the year 1998. Since then the global mean has remained below that record high. This is perplexing to say the least to scientist who have been predicting an increase in global temperatures for the coming decades, furthermore this has fueled debates against global warming and human influence on the Earth's climate.

From my point of view, despite the fact that we did not observe 1998 warmth this past decade global warming is a very real phenomenon and must be monitored. This past decade temperatures were generally above the global mean. The 12 year period from 1997-2008 the top ten warmest years were observed. Scientist speculate that temperature trends occur in 30 year cycles and that we are on the way to a cooler period for the next 30 years. The temperature trend for the past 30 years have indicated a warmer incline of temperatures, however the 30 year period from the 1940s to the 1970s is indicative of a cooler pattern. Never the less, when the entire spectrum is taken into perspective there is no argument, the overall global temperature trend has been a positive inclination. Our planet experiences changes in cycles so it is possible that for the next 30 year cycle temperatures globally might plateau or even cool down.

Global Cooling

2009 was dubbed "the year with out a summer," most of the U.S. has experienced the coldest summer in 30 years. Could this be a sign of things to come? Scientist say yes. Along with the 30 year temperature cycle, the current ENSO or the El Niño Southern Oscillation is believed to have a effect on our weather. During a typical weak El Niño, the Atlantic Hurricane Season tends to be less active. So far, Hurricane Season 2009 has been the least active of the decade. Cold and snowy conditions are more likely to occur during the North American winters during a weak El Niño. Scientist believe the cool trend of this past summer is likely to continue. If this is correct we could end up having the coldest winter season since the 1970s in 2009-2010 winter season.Along with a weak El Niño, scientist debate whether our Sun has also played a role in recent temperature variations. Some scientist argue that the Sun has not had any significant effect on global warming. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity" argues Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University. A research conducted by the Royal Society concluded that solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years do not correlate with graphs for global average surface temperatures.

But recent solar activity is speculated to have influenced global temperatures. Currently we are in a period in the 11 year solar cycle with the least sunspots on the surface of the Sun. This is known as Solar Minimum. The current solar minimum has been on going longer than average and is resulting in an extended solar cycle. Many scientist have noticed a relationship between an extended solar cycle and a decrease in global temperatures. Australian geologist David Archibald has confirmed this relationship, and also found that for every one year increase in solar cycle length there is a 0.5 degree Celsius decline in surface air temperature during the following cycle. NASA predicts the current solar cycle, dubbed cycle number 23 will be 13 years in length. If Archibald's calculations are correct there is likely to be a 1.0°C to 1.5°C drop in global temperatures over the next solar cycle. This is significant because cooling of this magnitude would be greater than the 0.6°C warming observed in the 20th century. A drop in temperature by just 1.0°C can have a big effect in global climate.If we look back in history to the last time an extended solar cycle was observed we would have to go back to "the Little Ice-age" which began with solar cycle number 4 which lasted 13.6 years. During the Little Ice-age, a global temperature drop of 1.0°C to 1.5°C was observed. During this period in the winter of 1780 New York Harbor actually froze over allowing New Yorkers to walk from Manhattan Island to Staten Island! Extreme cold was common in the northern hemisphere which led to crop faliure for much of Europe.

Weather synopsis for October 13, 2009

At 3:00pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 49°F with a mixture of sunshine and clouds. Tonight we may get some sprits of light rain showers possibly mixing with wet flurries, lows will hover just above the freezing point. It is feeling like fall as our temperatures have taken a tumble. This week we will be blanketed by a cold air mass that will keep temperatures some 10°F-20°F below the average. Low temperatures for the remainder of the week will fall below freezing, it is officially the end of the growing season. Despite the cold temperatures we will have a good stretch of fair weather and sunshine for the region with the exception of regions along the Atlantic coast. A coastal storm takes shape this week producing unsettled conditions along the shores from the Delmarva peninsula to New England which could cause problems in the Bronx for game 1 of the American League Championship Series in Yankee Stadium. Here in western New York however fair weather will prevail, and its forecast to stick around through this weekend before we begging adding precipitation back into the lingo.

Weather synopsis for October 10, 2009

At 7:30pm in Bronx County, NY the temperature is 58°F under mostly cloudy skies. Buffalo, NY is reporting a temperature of 52°F with partly cloudy skies. Tonight's lows in the Bronx and Buffalo will drop to the middle 40s and upper 30s respectively. On a drive from Buffalo, NY to the Bronx yesterday October 9, 2009, road conditions were treacherous to say the least. I encountered blinding rainfall all in association with a strong low pressure system which has cleared the Northeast region. This storm system produced flooding rainfall along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. In the wake of this system a cold air mass is moving southward from Canada in to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Frost and Freeze avdisories have been issused all troughout the upstate. Next week we can expect well below average temperatures and even some rain/snow mix in to interior sections of the Northeast and in the higher elevated valleys of the Adirondacks and in to the Allegheny Plateau.

Weather synopsis for October 8, 2009

At 1:00pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 60°F under generally sunny, but partly cloudy skies. The winds have subsided from yesterday, currently blowing from the south at 5MPH to 10MPh. We've had some impressive wind gusts reported yesterday, Dunkirk and Buffalo reported a peak gust of 62MPH yesterday morning, a wind gust of 48MPH and 45MPH were reported in Lancaster and Clarence respectively. At Buffalo State College I noticed some damage to some trees with big tree branches being knocked down by the wind in isolated areas. That storm system has moved the east off the coast of New England and Nova Scotia. Today we find ourselves once more wedged in between systems as the next storm makes a Beeline towards Buffalo. Tonight increasing and thickening clouds ahead of the next weather maker, low temperatures will hover around the 50°F mark. Friday, the rain will move in by the morning hours and it will be heavy at times. It will be out of the picture just in time for the weekend. Fair weather this weekend is expected, but cold temperatures will prevail. By the start of the work week we will have another round of precipitation, and temperatures might be just cold enough to support a mixture of rain and snow with cold temperatures sticking around through early next week.

Weather synopsis for October 7, 2009

At 12:15pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 50°F with overcast skies and gusty winds. There is a wind advisory which is in effect through this evening. Last night a cold front swept through the region producing rain and gusty winds. Today, the upper-level low pressure feature associated with last nights cold front has formed a tight pressure gradient with a high pressure system in the Midwest creating the strong winds were experiencing. Winds are sustained at 25-40MPH and gusting to over 50MPH. Tonight, winds will subside and showers will linger. Lows will drop in to the lower to middle 40s. Thursday will bring beautiful weather with ample sunshine, light winds and mild temperatures, highs are forecast to reach 64°F. Rain will return by Friday however as the next storm system moves in. The weekend appears to produce fair but cool weather, with cold temperatures hanging around through early next week.

Weather synopsis for October 6, 2009

At 5:00pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 61°F with increasing clouds. Today was a superb day weather wise. Our temperatures warmed to the lower 60's and our skies where mostly sunny for a good chunk of the day. The fair weather conditions however wont last long as the next storm system is already making its way on in. Tonight's lows will bottom out to around 50°F and clouds will be thickening as rains breaks out all across western New York State. Expect rain; which could be heavy at times, to fall through the night and into Wednesday. Winds will also be a factor with the approach of the low pressure system from our west creating a tight pressure gradient with a high pressure system to the south and east of Buffalo. The winds will begin to increase as the cold front associated with the low pressure system has passed through the area late tonight. Winds will be on the order of 25-35MPH with wind gust potentially over 40MPH. The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for northern Erie county from late tonight through Wednesday evening. Looking ahead at what else is in store this week we will find additional chances of rain. Thursday will be another fair weather day but by Friday more rain will infiltrate the region. Also expect well below average temperatures for this weekend and it looks like the cold will stick around at least through early next week.

Fall Foliage Update

Mother nature is exhibiting her Autumn best as we progress in to the season. As of October first, the foliage of the tress across the northern tier of the nation and into the Rocky Mountains has been nearing peak conditions. In some instances where the temperatures have been freezing cold we have passed our peaks, so looking like winter in to the Rockies and parts of extreme northern New England with trees already bear and snow on the ground. Locally, we are seeing patchy foliage spread to the coasts of southern New England and Long Island as well as the Appalachian Mountains.

Weather synopsis for October 5, 2009

At 1:50pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 57°F under mostly cloudy skies. The upper-level low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather this past weekend has moved northward in to Canadian provinces and is being replaced by a high pressure system over the upper Midwest, this means that our weather will be improving. Today expect some peaks of sunshine through the clouds. Tonight's lows will drop between 37°F and 45°F with clearing conditions. A much better day is in store tomorrow with the return of sunshine and moderating temperatures. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower to middle 60's. But the fair weather wont last long as we have another system that will be approaching from the west bringing with it rain, wind and chilly temperatures by hump day on Wednesday. A sneak peak at the up coming weekend looks promising for fair weather but temperatures are playing out to be below average.

Weather synopsis for October 4, 2009

At 6:30pm the temperature in Buffalo, NY is 53°F under mostly cloudy skies. Rain is falling in the area, all associated with an upper-level low over the northern Great Lakes. This system has dominated our weather all weekend long producing heavy lake-enhanced showers. Last night I recall standing outside and being absolutely drenched by a heavy downpour. Tonight, lows will dip down into the 40's with on and off rain. Monday is shaping up to be a nice day weather wise despite the light breezy conditions. Expect to encounter sunshine with passing clouds, high temperatures will reach the 60°F mark.

Weather synopsis for October 3, 2009

At 5:20pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 63°F with overcast skies. We've been experiencing on and off thundershowers as an upper-level low pressure system meanders about over the Great Lakes. Most of these pockets of precipitation are being enhanced by Lake Erie producing heavier rain from time to time. Rain will continue through Sunday with isolated thunderstorms possible by convection from lake-enhanced precipitation. Low temperatures tonight will be in the middle to upper 40's. NCEP forecast models indicate additional chances of rain for the majority of this up coming week.

Weather synopsis for October 2, 2009

At 9:40pm in Buffalo, NY the temperature is 55°F under mostly cloudy skies. An upper-level low pressure system is moving toward the east over the Western New York region. Ahead of the low there is an associated frontal boundary that has produced a solid shield of rain for the day. As the systems continues eastward the upper-level feature will also produce some rain showers for the remainder of the weekend. Tonight's lows will range between 45°F and 51°F.

Weather synopsis for October 1, 2009

It is 48°F in Buffalo, NY with mostly cloudy skies on this first day of October. Its chilly out there and certainly feeling like fall. Tonight's Lows will range from 35°F- 44°F. Tomorrow rain will move back into the picture. A storm system will move in from the west and bring increased moisture giving us a fair chance of precipitation this weekend. The heaviest rain will fall on Friday and lingering chances for rain for the remainder of the weekend. Sunday skies will clear and we will end up with a fair weather day.